Develson Aria prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Develson Aria P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 25 LHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 140

ERA5.60

FIP5.60

K%21.7%

BB%18.3%

K-BB%3.5%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	17	1	36	171	39	27	2	6%	2.1	15.5%	19.7%	-4.2%	1.6%	5.25	5.19	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	17	1	36	171	39	27	2	6%	2.1	22.8%	15.8%	7.0%	1.2%	5.25	3.91	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	13	6	26	112	39	23	0	46%	2.0	23.7%	25.7%	-2.0%	0.0%	3.16	4.35	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	13	6	26	112	39	23	0	46%	2.0	34.8%	20.5%	14.3%	0.0%	3.16	2.75	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	32	144	43	15	3	54%	2.4	19.9%	12.2%	7.7%	2.5%	4.83	4.32	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	32	144	43	15	3	54%	2.4	29.9%	10.4%	19.4%	2.1%	4.83	3.04	—
2023	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	25	12	47	252	57	61	4	48%	1.9	16.7%	28.6%	-11.8%	2.1%	9.45	6.47	—
2023	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	25	12	47	252	57	61	4	48%	1.9	16.7%	28.6%	-11.8%	2.1%	9.45	6.47	—
2023	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	25	12	47	252	57	61	4	48%	1.9	22.6%	24.2%	-1.6%	1.6%	9.45	5.69	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	18.3%	3.5%	3.0%	5.60	5.60	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIN	26	0	28	117	26	20	3	0%	1.1	22.1%	17.3%	4.8%	3.0%	5.45	5.45	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIN	11	0	12	51	11	9	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	17.3%	4.8%	3.0%	5.45	5.45	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	50	11	9	1	0%	1.1	22.1%	17.3%	4.8%	3.0%	5.45	5.06	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	151	17	0%	1.1	22.1%	17.3%	4.8%	3.0%	5.45	5.06	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		68	26	140	679	124	152	12	38%	2.1	18.3%	22.4%	-4.1%	1.7%	6.17	5.34	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	37	200	970	177	217	17	38%	2.1	18.3%	22.4%	-4.1%	1.7%	6.17	5.34	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Develson Aria (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.60	21.7%	18.3%	3.0%	—	5.45	22.1%	4.8%	28	-0.15	—	—	—
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	83
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	78
Anderson Polanco L 2018 · 5.95 FIP	25	SW	5.95	19.9%	20.9%	3.4%	.298	5.09	18.9%	2.6%	47	-0.86	4.10	316	77
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	74
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	73
Bryan Warzek L 2022 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	22.1%	15.0%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	1.91	138	72
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	72
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	72
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	71
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.06	18.5%	7.5%	165	-1.72	3.79	281	70
Trey Cumbie L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SU	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	3.0%	.284	5.07	23.3%	7.2%	42	+0.53	3.44	152	69
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	69
Mason Green L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	24	SW	5.28	17.9%	16.7%	2.9%	.278	4.24	18.4%	6.3%	265	-1.04	3.68	450	69
Kevin Smith L 2022 · 6.20 FIP	25	SW	6.20	17.5%	16.2%	4.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	248	68
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	68
Rich Hill L 2005 · 4.75 FIP	25	SW	4.75	18.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.293	4.24	21.9%	13.1%	314	-0.51	2.05	1,484	67
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	67
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	67
Cody Dickson L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	25	SW	5.48	15.9%	14.6%	3.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	354	66
Houston Harding L 2023 · 5.74 FIP	25	SU	5.74	17.9%	15.0%	4.1%	.307	4.82	14.5%	3.2%	142	-0.92	3.41	239	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	21.9%	17.8%	1.15	5.53
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88