Railin Perez — OGILVIE

Railin Perez P Corpus Christi Hooks

+0.2 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.4 · 2028

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.7%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%8.8%

IP59

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2028

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox 2	13	6	50	209	44	19	2	14.3%	11.4%	1.3%	3.60	4.07	+0.5
2021	19	ROK	DSL BOS Blue	21	0	33	141	38	15	1	18.3%	13.3%	0.6%	1.35	3.55	+0.5
2022	20	ROK	FCL Red Sox	13	0	23	86	31	8	0	24.5%	11.6%	0.0%	1.16	2.50	+0.6
2023	21	A	Salem Red Sox	32	0	56	256	69	34	1	19.9%	15.7%	0.5%	3.70	3.68	+0.8
2024	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	39	0	54	245	63	35	4	20.4%	15.2%	2.0%	3.81	4.41	+0.3
2025	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	42	0	63	297	78	43	2	20.4%	16.4%	0.7%	4.41	3.83	+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	6	0	5	25	2	5	0	—	—	—	5.40	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	HOU	59	—	59	251	54	32	6	21.6%	12.9%	2.4%	4.62	4.62	+0.2
2026 Total	24	MLB	HOU	—	—	64	276	56	37	6	20.4%	13.5%	2.2%	4.68	4.26	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	HOU	11	11	60	254	56	30	6	22.2%	11.7%	2.5%	4.50	4.44	+0.3
2028	26	MLB	HOU	11	11	60	254	57	29	6	22.5%	11.4%	2.5%	4.44	4.41	+0.4
2029	27	MLB	HOU	60	—	60	252	57	29	6	22.6%	11.3%	2.6%	4.42	4.41	+0.4
2030	28	MLB	HOU	59	—	59	248	56	28	6	22.5%	11.3%	2.6%	4.43	4.44	+0.3
2031	29	MLB	HOU	57	—	57	242	54	28	6	22.4%	11.4%	2.6%	4.46	4.48	+0.3
2032	30	MLB	HOU	56	—	56	235	52	27	6	22.2%	11.5%	2.7%	4.51	4.55	+0.3
2033	31	MLB	HOU	54	—	54	227	50	26	6	22.0%	11.7%	2.8%	4.58	4.62	+0.2
2034	32	MLB	HOU	52	—	52	218	47	26	6	21.7%	11.8%	2.8%	4.66	4.71	+0.1
2035	33	MLB	HOU	49	—	49	208	44	25	6	21.4%	12.0%	2.9%	4.75	4.81	+0.1
2036	34	MLB	HOU	47	—	47	198	42	24	6	21.0%	12.2%	3.0%	4.85	4.92	+0.0
2037	35	MLB	HOU	44	—	44	186	38	23	6	20.6%	12.4%	3.1%	4.96	5.04	-0.0
2038	36	MLB	HOU	41	—	41	174	35	22	6	20.2%	12.7%	3.3%	5.09	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			166	6	285	1259	240	184	12	19.1%	14.6%	0.9%	3.41	3.85	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—			116	4	200	882	168	129	8	19.1%	14.6%	0.9%	3.41	3.85	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Railin Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	21.6%	12.9%	2.4%	—	4.42	22.4%	10.9%	180	-0.20	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	95
Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	24	SW	4.00	22.4%	13.6%	2.0%	.331	4.03	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.03	3.31	213	94
Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	24	SW	4.61	22.7%	15.4%	2.7%	.298	4.70	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.09	4.23	222	93
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.72	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.14	4.04	404	93
Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	24	SW	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.42	155	92
Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	24	SW	3.74	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.00	22.6%	8.2%	94	+0.26	3.60	154	92
Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	3.96	20.3%	11.1%	143	-0.28	3.84	206	91
Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	24	SW	4.91	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.68	22.3%	12.1%	127	-0.23	3.38	188	91
Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.59 FIP	25	SW	4.59	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.54	16.5%	2.8%	182	-0.05	3.49	237	91
Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	24	SW	3.78	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.47	2.87	223	91
Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	24	SW	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.39	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.05	4.15	172	91
Bud Jeter R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	24	SW	3.71	22.0%	13.8%	1.3%	.318	3.65	21.4%	10.4%	101	-0.06	3.12	226	90
David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	25	SW	4.42	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.32	15.6%	5.5%	168	+0.90	4.42	239	90
Carlos Contreras R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.48	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.31	107	90
Tommy Kahnle R 2027 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	23.8%	14.8%	2.2%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.59	1.53	433	90
Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	24	SW	3.73	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	104	90
Zack Jones R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	24	SW	3.56	23.9%	14.0%	1.3%	.280	3.63	28.1%	10.9%	57	+0.07	2.56	109	89
Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SW	4.56	19.8%	15.3%	2.2%	.283	4.53	18.5%	9.4%	111	-0.03	3.33	223	89
Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.74	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.64	4.10	105	89
Peter Tago R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	24	SW	3.66	24.4%	14.0%	1.5%	.303	3.44	23.6%	8.3%	39	-0.22	3.26	207	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.3	$1M	+$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.7M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$0.1M
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$3M