Railin Perez
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 116
ERA5.14
FIP5.14
K%20.1%
BB%16.0%
K-BB%4.1%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 13 | 6 | 50 | 209 | 44 | 19 | 2 | 46% | 3.8 | 14.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 3.60 | 4.07 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 13 | 6 | 50 | 209 | 44 | 19 | 2 | 46% | 3.8 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 1.0% | 3.60 | 3.00 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL BOS Blue | 21 | 0 | 33 | 141 | 38 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.3% | 13.3% | 5.0% | 0.5% | 1.35 | 3.52 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL BOS Blue | 21 | 0 | 33 | 141 | 38 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.0% | 10.6% | 16.3% | 0.7% | 1.35 | 2.56 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 13 | 0 | 23 | 86 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 24.5% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 0.0% | 1.16 | 2.50 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 13 | 0 | 23 | 86 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 36.0% | 9.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 1.16 | 1.47 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Salem Red Sox | 32 | 0 | 56 | 256 | 69 | 34 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.9% | 15.7% | 4.3% | 0.5% | 3.70 | 3.68 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Salem Red Sox | 32 | 0 | 56 | 256 | 69 | 34 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 27.0% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 0.4% | 3.70 | 2.69 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 54 | 245 | 63 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.4% | 15.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 3.81 | 4.33 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 54 | 245 | 63 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.7% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 1.6% | 3.81 | 3.67 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 63 | 297 | 78 | 43 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.4% | 16.4% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 4.41 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 63 | 297 | 78 | 43 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.3% | 14.5% | 11.8% | 0.7% | 4.41 | 3.08 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 27 | 0 | 27 | 117 | 31 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 18.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.71 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | HOU | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 57 | 45 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 16.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | HOU | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 16.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 94 | 401 | 88 | 65 | 9 | — | — | 22.0% | 16.3% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 4.73 | 5.04 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 20.1% | 16.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 5.14 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 60 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 14.0% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 4.92 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 61 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 13.6% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 4.82 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 61 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 13.4% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 26 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 14.0% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 4.92 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 40 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 13.6% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 4.82 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 47 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 13.4% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 123 | 0 | 129 | 543 | 115 | 74 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 4.42 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 115 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 4.83 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 187 | 6 | 307 | 1351 | 264 | 201 | 14 | 3% | 1.6 | 19.5% | 14.9% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 3.40 | 3.89 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 122 | 4 | 200 | 880 | 172 | 131 | 9 | 3% | 1.6 | 19.5% | 14.9% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 3.40 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Railin Perez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.14 | 20.1% | 16.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.80 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 203 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.50 | 19.8% | 15.3% | 2.1% | .283 | 4.49 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 139 | -0.01 | 3.34 | 252 | 93 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 91 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 90 |
| Mark Sappington R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 18.9% | 16.2% | 1.2% | .323 | 4.34 | 16.6% | -1.3% | 52 | +0.11 | 4.23 | 120 | 90 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 89 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 89 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 89 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 89 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 2.1% | .305 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 184 | -0.36 | 3.34 | 334 | 88 |
| Kris Hall R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.65 | 18.3% | 17.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 7.02 | 12.7% | -7.8% | 34 | +2.37 | 4.65 | 106 | 87 |
| Antonio Knowles R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 2.3% | .250 | 3.13 | 21.9% | 13.9% | 61 | -1.38 | 2.73 | 218 | 87 |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.47 | 4.44 | 100 | 87 |
| Billy Seidl R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 87 |
| Noah Murdock R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.72 | 19.8% | 17.1% | 2.1% | .314 | 3.29 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 130 | -1.43 | 2.48 | 292 | 87 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 86 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 86 |
| Isaac Stebens R 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 21.1% | 15.5% | 1.4% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 102 | 86 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 86 |
| Josh Graham R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.95 | 20.4% | 15.1% | 3.0% | .327 | 4.59 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 70 | -0.36 | 2.15 | 254 | 85 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 20.9% | 14.3% | 0.96 | 4.92 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |