Railin Perez — OGILVIE

Railin Perez P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%20.1%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%3.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 2	13	6	50	209	44	19	2	46%	3.8	14.3%	11.4%	3.0%	1.3%	3.60	4.07	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 2	13	6	50	209	44	19	2	46%	3.8	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	1.0%	3.60	3.00	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	21	0	33	141	38	15	1	0%	1.6	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	0.7%	1.35	3.61	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	21	0	33	141	38	15	1	0%	1.6	27.0%	10.6%	16.3%	0.7%	1.35	2.56	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	13	0	23	86	31	8	0	0%	1.8	24.5%	11.6%	12.9%	0.0%	1.16	2.50	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	13	0	23	86	31	8	0	0%	1.8	36.0%	9.3%	26.7%	0.0%	1.16	1.47	—
2023	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	32	0	56	256	69	34	1	0%	1.8	19.9%	15.7%	4.3%	0.5%	3.70	3.68	—
2023	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	32	0	56	256	69	34	1	0%	1.8	19.9%	15.7%	4.3%	0.5%	3.70	3.68	—
2023	21	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	32	0	56	256	69	34	1	0%	1.8	27.0%	13.3%	13.7%	0.4%	3.70	2.69	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	54	245	63	35	4	0%	1.4	20.4%	15.2%	5.2%	2.0%	3.81	4.40	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	54	245	63	35	4	0%	1.4	20.4%	15.2%	5.2%	2.0%	3.81	4.40	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	54	245	63	35	4	0%	1.4	25.7%	14.3%	11.4%	1.6%	3.81	3.67	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	63	297	78	43	2	0%	1.5	20.4%	16.4%	4.0%	0.7%	4.41	3.84	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	63	297	78	43	2	0%	1.5	20.4%	16.4%	4.0%	0.7%	4.41	3.84	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	63	297	78	43	2	0%	1.5	26.3%	14.5%	11.8%	0.7%	4.41	3.08	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	45	0	50	221	67	29	3	0%	1.1	24.6%	14.4%	10.1%	1.6%	3.58	3.75	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	45	0	50	221	67	29	3	0%	1.1	24.6%	14.4%	10.1%	1.6%	3.58	3.75	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	HOU	45	0	50	221	67	29	3	0%	1.1	30.3%	13.1%	17.2%	1.4%	3.58	2.95	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	HOU	5	0	6	24	5	4	1	0%	1.1	20.1%	16.2%	3.9%	2.4%	5.18	5.18	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	56	245	72	33	4	—	—	29.3%	13.4%	15.9%	1.5%	3.74	3.89	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	65	0	68	287	60	41	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	14.1%	6.8%	2.5%	4.95	4.86	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	65	0	68	287	61	39	7	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.7%	7.6%	2.5%	4.85	4.80	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	64	0	67	283	61	38	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	13.6%	7.8%	2.6%	4.82	4.81	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	274	59	37	7	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.6%	7.7%	2.7%	4.86	4.89	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	29	0	30	127	26	18	3	0%	1.0	20.9%	14.1%	6.8%	2.5%	4.95	4.86	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	43	0	45	190	40	26	5	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.7%	7.6%	2.5%	4.85	4.80	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	50	0	52	220	47	30	6	0%	1.0	21.4%	13.6%	7.8%	2.6%	4.82	4.81	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	52	0	55	232	50	32	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.6%	7.7%	2.7%	4.86	4.89	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		174	0	182	769	164	105	20	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.7%	7.6%	2.6%	4.86	4.46	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	115	22	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.7%	7.6%	2.6%	4.86	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		205	6	331	1455	293	211	16	3%	1.6	20.1%	14.5%	5.6%	1.1%	3.40	3.82	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	4	200	880	177	127	9	3%	1.6	20.1%	14.5%	5.6%	1.1%	3.40	3.82	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Railin Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	20.1%	16.2%	2.4%	—	4.82	21.2%	7.4%	203	-0.36	—	—	—
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	92
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	91
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	90
Mark Sappington R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	18.9%	16.2%	1.2%	.323	4.39	16.6%	-1.3%	52	+0.17	4.22	120	89
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	89
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	89
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	89
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	88
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	87
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	87
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	87
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	87
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	86
Noah Murdock R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.8%	17.1%	1.8%	.314	3.18	22.5%	9.0%	144	-1.38	2.60	306	86
Josh Graham R 2018 · 4.80 FIP	24	SU	4.80	20.4%	15.1%	2.8%	.327	4.35	18.0%	10.1%	70	-0.45	2.15	254	86
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	86
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	85
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	85
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	21.0%	14.3%	0.98	4.93
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48