Julio Ortiz — OGILVIE

Julio Ortiz P Vancouver Canadians

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 235 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 23 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.51

FIP5.51

K%24.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%4.9%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 2	4	1	5	27	8	7	0	25%	1.3	29.6%	25.9%	3.7%	0.0%	6.75	3.88	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 2	4	1	5	27	8	7	0	25%	1.3	29.6%	25.9%	3.7%	0.0%	6.75	4.04	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	5	0	6	27	7	8	0	0%	1.1	25.9%	29.6%	-3.7%	0.0%	7.94	4.66	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	5	0	6	27	7	8	0	0%	1.1	25.9%	29.6%	-3.7%	0.0%	7.94	4.86	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	38	181	60	37	1	0%	1.4	23.7%	24.8%	-1.1%	0.8%	5.17	4.70	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	38	181	60	37	1	0%	1.4	23.7%	24.8%	-1.1%	0.8%	5.17	4.70	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	38	181	60	37	1	0%	1.4	33.1%	20.4%	12.7%	0.6%	5.17	3.20	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	28	0	40	204	69	47	3	0%	1.4	26.0%	26.5%	-0.5%	2.1%	7.71	5.44	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	28	0	40	204	69	47	3	0%	1.4	26.0%	26.5%	-0.5%	2.1%	7.71	5.44	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	28	0	40	204	69	47	3	0%	1.4	33.8%	23.0%	10.8%	1.5%	7.71	4.16	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TOR	22	0	23	97	24	19	3	0%	1.0	24.9%	20.0%	4.9%	2.9%	5.51	5.51	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	34	0	35	149	37	28	4	0%	1.0	24.7%	19.0%	5.7%	3.0%	5.41	5.43	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	12	0	13	55	14	10	2	0%	1.1	24.7%	19.0%	5.7%	3.0%	5.41	5.43	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	13	10	2	0%	1.1	24.7%	19.0%	5.7%	3.0%	5.41	5.05	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	155	31	0%	1.1	24.7%	19.0%	5.7%	3.0%	5.41	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		65	1	89	439	111	114	6	2%	1.4	25.3%	26.0%	-0.7%	1.3%	6.57	4.99	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	2	200	987	249	256	13	2%	1.4	25.3%	26.0%	-0.7%	1.3%	6.57	4.99	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Ortiz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	24.9%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.43	24.7%	5.7%	35	-0.08	—	—	—
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	86
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	85
Mitchell Stumpo R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	26	SU	4.55	24.0%	16.8%	2.4%	.225	5.67	21.5%	6.6%	78	+1.12	3.97	158	84
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	82
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	82
LJ McDonough R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	22.6%	16.7%	2.3%	.385	4.85	20.0%	2.8%	90	+0.31	4.16	127	82
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	81
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	81
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	81
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	80
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	80
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	80
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	79
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	79
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	79
Manuel Alvarez R 2022 · 5.02 FIP	26	SU	5.02	20.3%	17.1%	2.7%	.330	6.63	11.8%	-14.8%	12	+1.61	4.58	154	78
Conor Larkin R 2024 · 4.82 FIP	25	SU	4.82	24.4%	16.7%	3.0%	.233	4.66	17.9%	5.2%	90	-0.16	2.40	179	78
Matt Seelinger R 2021 · 5.37 FIP	26	SU	5.37	28.8%	18.3%	4.3%	.312	4.58	24.8%	12.2%	116	-0.79	3.13	371	78
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	78
Austin Ross R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	26	SU	4.99	22.4%	16.8%	3.0%	.295	5.74	18.0%	5.8%	15	+0.75	4.41	121	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	24.8%	19.4%	1.14	5.45
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95