Edgardo Henriquez

P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX5 levels	46	5	56	2.72	1.91	38.8%	12.9%	1.8	K 29.4% · BB 12.8% · FIP 2.91
2025	23	MIX2 levels	44	2	43	4.85	3.43	27.7%	9.7%	0.6	K 25.1% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.63
2026	24	MLBLAD	61	1	60	2.85	2.20	29.3%	10.3%	1.7
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAD	49	0	51	3.34	3.32	31.7%	11.1%	0.8
2028PROJ89% MLB	26	MLBLAD	46	0	48	3.46	3.44	31.1%	10.9%	0.7
2029PROJ91% MLB	27	MLBLAD	42	0	44	3.54	3.55	30.5%	10.8%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.953First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$3M2031Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs90

K%88

Form2.95 ERA (proj 3.34) · K 38.2% (proj 31.7%) · BB 9.2% (proj 11.1%) ▲▲ last 90d · 18 IP through Oct 27

CompsChad Sobotka (age 25) · Bruce Rondón (age 25) · Brian Ellington (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8375vR 67

ERA3.34

FIP3.32

K%31.7%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%20.7%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p90100.7

Whiff%

p8230.3%

p8829.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.244

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.953 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.6M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	18	3	30	143	30	28	0	17%	1.7	14.3%	24.5%	-10.2%	0.0%	4.80	5.00	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	18	3	30	143	30	28	0	17%	1.7	21.0%	19.6%	1.4%	0.0%	4.80	3.90	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	9	35	151	50	24	3	69%	2.7	22.8%	19.6%	3.2%	2.8%	4.93	5.20	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	9	35	151	50	24	3	69%	2.7	33.1%	15.9%	17.2%	2.0%	4.93	3.42	—
2022	20	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	14	13	36	163	44	18	2	93%	2.5	20.0%	13.0%	6.9%	1.3%	4.54	3.77	—
2022	20	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	14	13	36	163	44	18	2	93%	2.5	27.0%	11.0%	16.0%	1.2%	4.54	2.88	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	46	5	56	240	93	31	2	11%	1.2	29.4%	12.8%	16.6%	1.2%	2.72	2.91	+1.1
2024	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	46	5	56	240	93	31	2	11%	1.2	29.4%	12.8%	16.6%	1.2%	2.72	2.91	+1.1
2024	22	MIX RAW	5 levels	46	5	56	240	93	31	2	11%	1.2	38.8%	12.9%	25.8%	0.8%	2.72	1.91	+1.8
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	43	195	54	19	5	5%	1.0	25.1%	9.0%	16.1%	2.8%	4.85	3.63	+0.5
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	43	195	54	19	5	5%	1.0	25.1%	9.0%	16.1%	2.8%	4.85	3.63	+0.5
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	2	43	195	54	19	5	5%	1.0	27.7%	9.7%	17.9%	2.6%	4.85	3.43	+0.6
2026	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	61	1	60	242	71	25	1	2%	1.0	29.3%	10.3%	19.0%	0.4%	2.85	2.15	+1.7
2026	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	61	1	60	242	71	25	1	2%	1.0	29.3%	10.3%	19.0%	0.4%	2.85	2.15	+1.7
2026	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	61	1	60	242	71	25	1	2%	1.0	29.3%	10.3%	19.0%	0.4%	2.85	2.20	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			86	1	82	334	94	32	3	1%	1.0	28.1%	9.6%	18.6%	0.9%	2.73	2.46	+2.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAD	49	0	51	215	68	24	4	0%	1.0	31.7%	11.1%	20.7%	2.0%	3.34	3.32	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	51	0	53	225	70	24	5	0%	1.0	31.1%	10.9%	20.2%	2.1%	3.41	3.39	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	46	0	48	203	62	22	5	0%	1.0	30.5%	10.8%	19.7%	2.2%	3.49	3.50	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	42	0	44	185	55	20	4	0%	1.0	30.0%	10.9%	19.2%	2.4%	3.59	3.63	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	36	0	38	160	47	18	4	0%	1.1	29.3%	11.1%	18.2%	2.5%	3.72	3.80	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	46	0	48	203	63	22	4	0%	1.0	31.1%	10.9%	20.2%	2.2%	3.46	3.44	+0.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	42	0	44	186	57	20	4	0%	1.0	30.5%	10.8%	19.7%	2.3%	3.54	3.55	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	39	0	41	173	52	19	4	0%	1.1	30.0%	10.9%	19.2%	2.5%	3.65	3.69	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	34	0	36	152	45	17	4	0%	1.1	29.3%	11.1%	18.2%	2.6%	3.78	3.86	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		246	1	250	1041	308	109	20	0%	1.0	29.6%	10.5%	19.1%	1.9%	3.31	2.98	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		197	1	200	834	247	87	16	0%	1.0	29.6%	10.5%	19.1%	1.9%	3.31	2.98	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		196	33	259	1134	278	159	16	17%	1.3	24.5%	14.0%	10.5%	1.4%	3.89	3.56	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	25	200	875	214	123	12	17%	1.3	24.5%	14.0%	10.5%	1.4%	3.89	3.56	+3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 24 IPFIP 3.42 → 3.85 (+0.42)K% 30.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.860	26.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.97%	—	×0.900	10.77%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.956	×1.100	2.95%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.42 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATulsa Drillers · 18 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.10 (+0.88)K% 33.8% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.80%	—	×0.810	27.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.27%	—	×1.100	12.39%
HR / BF /BF	2.82%	÷1.063	×1.200	3.18%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 13 IPFIP 2.68 → 2.83 (+0.14)K% 29.5% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.51%	—	×0.860	25.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.39%	—	×0.900	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.896	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.68 → 2.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Great Lakes Loons · 12 IPFIP 0.26 → 1.37 (+1.12)K% 48.1% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	48.08%	—	×0.770	37.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×1.150	11.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.036	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 0.26 → 1.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 10 IPFIP 0.69 → 2.11 (+1.42)K% 50.0% → 37.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.740	37.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.180	16.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.072	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 0.69 → 2.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 36 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.77 (+0.87)K% 27.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.99%	—	×0.740	19.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.04%	—	×1.180	13.03%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.247	×1.300	1.28%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Dodgers · 33 IPFIP 3.43 → 5.20 (+1.77)K% 33.6% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.57%	—	×0.680	22.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.71%	—	×1.250	19.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷1.068	×1.400	2.81%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 3.43 → 5.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKDSL LAD Bautista · 30 IPFIP 3.81 → 5.00 (+1.19)K% 21.0% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.98%	—	×0.680	14.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.58%	—	×1.250	24.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.81 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edgardo Henriquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.0%	—	3.50	30.6%	19.7%	145	+0.18	—	—	—
Chad Sobotka R 2018 · 2.87 FIP	25	SU	2.87	29.4%	11.9%	1.4%	.206	4.35	23.2%	11.1%	89	+1.48	2.87	278	72
Bruce Rondón R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	25	SU	3.36	29.0%	10.0%	2.6%	.284	3.41	25.1%	10.5%	82	+0.05	3.11	212	71
Brian Ellington R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	25	SU	3.44	27.5%	14.3%	1.6%	.252	5.01	24.6%	9.0%	97	+1.57	2.75	233	70
J.B. Wendelken R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	25	SU	3.31	29.5%	9.5%	2.7%	.286	3.78	23.3%	14.1%	140	+0.47	3.08	393	70
Diego Castillo R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	25	SU	3.26	27.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.285	3.54	27.8%	19.8%	134	+0.28	2.38	524	70
John McMillon R 2023 · 2.28 FIP	25	SU	2.28	34.9%	13.5%	0.8%	.279	6.14	21.2%	5.9%	67	+3.86	2.28	152	69
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	69
Luis Guerrero R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	28.4%	12.1%	2.8%	.270	6.46	17.2%	3.0%	92	+2.71	2.88	232	69
Jaden Hill R 2024 · 3.02 FIP	24	SU	3.02	26.7%	7.1%	2.3%	.360	2.95	25.4%	16.0%	87	-0.07	2.48	169	69
Arodys Vizcaíno R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	25	SU	3.36	27.5%	12.6%	1.8%	.321	3.49	26.4%	17.8%	96	+0.13	2.28	201	69
Aaron Barrett R 2014 · 2.35 FIP	26	SU	2.35	28.2%	10.3%	0.6%	.302	1.86	28.5%	22.8%	29	-0.49	1.86	160	68
José Leclerc R 2019 · 3.12 FIP	25	SU	3.12	33.4%	12.7%	2.2%	.292	3.43	27.3%	16.7%	48	+0.31	1.48	527	68
Hansel Robles R 2016 · 3.32 FIP	25	SU	3.32	25.7%	9.7%	2.1%	.300	3.97	24.2%	15.3%	209	+0.65	2.67	469	68
Dominic Leone R 2017 · 2.74 FIP	25	SU	2.74	29.0%	7.2%	2.1%	.262	4.25	26.2%	16.6%	96	+1.51	2.74	514	68
Ken Giles R 2016 · 2.73 FIP	25	SU	2.73	35.7%	8.4%	2.9%	.342	2.39	33.0%	26.3%	166	-0.34	0.92	414	67
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	67
Camilo Doval R 2022 · 2.81 FIP	25	SU	2.81	28.0%	9.8%	1.5%	.287	2.87	28.6%	17.7%	192	+0.06	2.02	541	67
Isaiah Campbell R 2023 · 3.35 FIP	25	SU	3.35	25.5%	9.2%	2.3%	.273	4.01	19.1%	12.4%	128	+0.66	3.31	246	67
Daniel Bard R 2010 · 3.23 FIP	25	SU	3.23	25.8%	9.2%	2.1%	.210	4.11	20.3%	9.5%	132	+0.88	2.56	456	66
Neil Ramírez R 2014 · 2.43 FIP	25	SU	2.43	29.9%	9.6%	1.2%	.257	4.83	26.1%	13.9%	104	+2.40	2.43	264	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	54	30.1%	10.6%	0.74	3.30
Greg Holland ('22)	2.7	55	29.8%	10.6%	0.71	3.14
Jordan Walden ('15)	1.1	56	28.6%	10.3%	0.53	3.00
Kiko Calero ('09)	1.5	50	26.0%	10.1%	0.71	3.24
Al Hrabosky ('70-'82, 10 WAR*)	3.6	72	26.7%*	10.1%*	0.98*	3.50*
Randy Myers ('85-'98, 16 WAR*)	4.4	74	29.4%*	10.4%*	0.92*	3.47*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*