Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 18 | 3 | 30 | 143 | 30 | 28 | 0 | 17% | 1.7 | 14.3% | 24.5% | -10.2% | 0.0% | 4.80 | 5.00 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | 18 | 3 | 30 | 143 | 30 | 28 | 0 | 17% | 1.7 | 21.0% | 19.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 4.80 | 3.90 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 9 | 35 | 151 | 50 | 24 | 3 | 69% | 2.7 | 22.8% | 19.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.93 | 5.11 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 9 | 35 | 151 | 50 | 24 | 3 | 69% | 2.7 | 33.1% | 15.9% | 17.2% | 2.0% | 4.93 | 3.42 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 14 | 13 | 36 | 163 | 44 | 18 | 2 | 93% | 2.5 | 20.0% | 13.0% | 6.9% | 1.1% | 4.54 | 3.65 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 14 | 13 | 36 | 163 | 44 | 18 | 2 | 93% | 2.5 | 27.0% | 11.0% | 16.0% | 1.2% | 4.54 | 2.88 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 5 levels | 46 | 5 | 56 | 240 | 93 | 31 | 2 | 11% | 1.2 | 29.6% | 13.6% | 16.0% | 1.2% | 2.72 | 2.96 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 5 levels | 46 | 5 | 56 | 240 | 93 | 31 | 2 | 11% | 1.2 | 38.8% | 12.9% | 25.8% | 0.8% | 2.72 | 1.91 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 43 | 195 | 54 | 19 | 5 | 5% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 10.1% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.85 | 3.84 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 2 | 43 | 195 | 54 | 19 | 5 | 5% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 9.7% | 17.9% | 2.6% | 4.85 | 3.43 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 37 | 0 | 39 | 153 | 37 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 0.7% | 2.29 | 2.66 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 56 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 11.1% | 15.2% | 2.3% | 3.50 | 3.53 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAD | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 56 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 11.1% | 15.2% | 2.3% | 3.50 | 3.53 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 90 | 367 | 93 | 39 | 6 | — | — | 25.4% | 10.5% | 14.8% | 1.6% | 2.97 | 3.15 | +2.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 90 | 380 | 93 | 39 | 6 | — | — | 24.5% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 1.5% | 2.97 | 3.17 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 102 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 10.5% | 16.1% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.86 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 102 | 39 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 10.2% | 16.2% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.86 | +1.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 83 | 0 | 87 | 367 | 98 | 39 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 10.5% | 16.1% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.86 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 83 | 0 | 87 | 367 | 97 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 10.2% | 16.2% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.86 | +1.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 275 | 0 | 285 | 1190 | 310 | 121 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 2.1% | 3.48 | 3.36 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 0 | 200 | 834 | 217 | 85 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 2.1% | 3.48 | 3.36 | +4.8 | ||
| Career | — | 172 | 32 | 239 | 1045 | 245 | 153 | 15 | 19% | 1.4 | 23.5% | 14.7% | 8.8% | 1.5% | 3.88 | 3.78 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 27 | 200 | 876 | 206 | 128 | 13 | 19% | 1.4 | 23.5% | 14.7% | 8.8% | 1.5% | 3.88 | 3.78 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Edgardo Henriquez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.14 | 27.9% | 11.7% | 2.8% | — | 3.86 | 26.5% | 16.2% | 182 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Seth Halvorsen R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 21.0% | 12.5% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.34 | 21.8% | 9.6% | 75 | +0.43 | 3.91 | 111 | 78 |
| Bruce Rondón R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .336 | 3.42 | 26.7% | 14.0% | 140 | -0.42 | 3.31 | 184 | 74 |
| Jaden Hill R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.14 | 26.7% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .360 | 2.84 | 26.1% | 16.9% | 74 | -0.30 | 2.41 | 156 | 73 |
| Nick Mears R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.8% | 11.3% | 3.6% | .301 | 3.57 | 27.7% | 14.2% | 125 | -0.96 | 3.33 | 273 | 73 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.25 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .371 | 4.01 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 165 | -0.24 | 2.96 | 214 | 72 |
| Nick Robertson R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.4% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.16 | 23.2% | 12.6% | 167 | -0.24 | 2.77 | 312 | 72 |
| Enrique Burgos R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 29.8% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .383 | 4.05 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 104 | +0.45 | 1.61 | 162 | 70 |
| Joey Krehbiel R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.35 | 25.5% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .318 | 5.20 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 122 | +1.85 | 3.35 | 556 | 70 |
| Sean Reynolds R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.28 | 23.3% | 12.2% | 2.9% | .266 | 4.47 | 20.7% | 4.6% | 174 | +0.19 | 3.70 | 258 | 70 |
| Bryan Baker R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 25.7% | 15.8% | 1.9% | .258 | 2.55 | 25.8% | 16.4% | 111 | -1.42 | 2.41 | 537 | 70 |
| Camilo Doval R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.85 | 29.9% | 12.7% | 3.0% | .299 | 2.74 | 29.3% | 19.2% | 194 | -1.11 | 2.02 | 516 | 69 |
| Daysbel Hernández R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.45 | 27.6% | 13.0% | 3.7% | .286 | 2.73 | 28.5% | 15.6% | 74 | -1.72 | 1.89 | 255 | 69 |
| Jordan Leasure R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 31.8% | 12.1% | 4.2% | .295 | 4.96 | 25.7% | 14.7% | 114 | +0.70 | 4.26 | 212 | 69 |
| Matt Brash R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 29.8% | 14.2% | 2.0% | .335 | 2.28 | 32.5% | 23.6% | 118 | -1.20 | 1.92 | 309 | 69 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.45 | 21.0% | 12.4% | 2.8% | .325 | 4.48 | 27.5% | 13.5% | 163 | +0.03 | 3.30 | 323 | 69 |
| Kelvin Herrera R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.34 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .245 | 3.33 | 25.0% | 19.6% | 176 | -0.01 | 2.32 | 297 | 69 |
| Tayron Guerrero R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .260 | 4.30 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 139 | +0.14 | 2.18 | 355 | 69 |
| Kade Strowd R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.42 | 26.5% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .250 | 4.05 | 23.6% | 10.7% | 157 | -0.37 | 3.27 | 241 | 68 |
| Hansel Robles R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.75 | 28.1% | 7.8% | 3.7% | .221 | 4.17 | 24.0% | 13.5% | 214 | +0.42 | 2.74 | 469 | 68 |
| Seranthony Domínguez R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.70 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.12 | 28.1% | 17.4% | 63 | -0.58 | 2.41 | 461 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 91 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 0.98 | 3.96 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Danny Salazar ('17) | 3 | 142 | 28.1% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 3.79 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |