Camilo Doval — OGILVIE

Camilo Doval P New York Yankees

+1.0 WAR

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.0 · 2026

ERA3.80

FIP3.81

xFIP3.07

SIERA2.88

K%26.6%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%15.0%

IP62

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.0peak

2026

K†6565

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p7028.4%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

FB (76%)

SI (36%)

SL-2.3 (24%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	19	ROK	DSL Giants	12	0	22	87	24	10	0	18.8%	14.4%	0.0%	1.66	3.34	+0.4
2017	20	ROK	AZL Giants	17	0	32	133	51	13	0	26.1%	12.2%	0.0%	3.90	2.45	+0.9
2018	21	A	Augusta GreenJackets	44	0	53	228	78	27	2	25.3%	14.0%	1.1%	3.06	3.32	+1.0
2019	22	A+	San Jose Giants	45	0	56	244	80	34	2	25.2%	16.0%	1.1%	3.83	3.58	+0.9
2021	24	MLB	San Francisco Giants	57	0	58	253	81	31	7	29.9%	12.7%	3.0%	4.06	3.83	+0.7
2022	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	68	0	68	286	80	28	4	28.0%	9.8%	1.4%	2.53	2.74	+1.7
2023	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	69	0	68	281	87	20	3	31.0%	7.1%	1.0%	2.93	1.96	+2.3
2024	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	67	0	65	291	85	38	5	28.8%	13.7%	2.1%	4.73	3.53	+1.1
2025	28	MLB	New York Yankees	69	0	65	278	72	34	4	25.9%	12.2%	1.3%	3.58	3.19	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	New York Yankees	9	0	7	33	7	1	1	—	—	—	7.36	—	—
ROS	29	MLB	NYY	55	—	55	233	69	27	5	29.8%	11.5%	2.1%	3.72	3.59	+0.8
2026 Total	29	MLB	NYY	—	—	62	266	76	28	6	28.7%	10.5%	2.2%	4.15	3.17	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	30	MLB	NYY	11	11	60	255	72	28	6	28.0%	10.9%	2.2%	3.74	3.72	+0.8
2028	31	MLB	NYY	58	—	58	247	68	27	6	27.4%	11.0%	2.3%	3.79	3.82	+0.7
2029	32	MLB	NYY	56	—	56	237	64	26	6	26.8%	11.2%	2.4%	3.88	3.94	+0.6
2030	33	MLB	NYY	54	—	54	226	59	26	6	26.2%	11.3%	2.5%	3.99	4.07	+0.5
2031	34	MLB	NYY	51	—	51	215	55	25	6	25.4%	11.6%	2.6%	4.12	4.21	+0.4
2032	35	MLB	NYY	48	—	48	203	50	24	5	24.7%	11.8%	2.7%	4.26	4.36	+0.3
2033	36	MLB	NYY	45	—	45	190	45	23	5	23.9%	12.0%	2.8%	4.42	4.52	+0.2
2034	37	MLB	NYY	42	—	42	176	41	22	5	23.1%	12.3%	2.9%	4.59	4.70	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			457	0	494	2114	576	255	30	27.2%	12.0%	1.4%	3.52	3.11	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—			185	0	200	856	233	103	12	27.2%	12.0%	1.4%	3.52	3.11	+5.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Camilo Doval (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.59	29.8%	11.5%	2.1%	—	3.82	27.4%	16.4%	175	+0.23	—	—	—
Blake Wood R 2026 · 2.91 FIP	29	SW	2.91	24.5%	10.5%	1.0%	.325	3.57	24.9%	14.9%	151	+0.66	2.91	210	75
Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	29	SW	4.01	23.2%	12.3%	2.4%	.290	4.91	22.5%	-2.9%	51	+0.90	4.01	130	72
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.11 FIP	31	SW	3.11	22.5%	9.7%	1.2%	.298	5.81	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.70	3.11	148	72
Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	29	SW	3.77	20.6%	10.9%	1.9%	.281	3.74	21.6%	12.6%	179	-0.03	2.26	602	71
Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	70
Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	70
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	29	SW	3.30	21.6%	7.1%	2.1%	.319	3.76	23.5%	13.9%	181	+0.46	1.69	468	70
Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	29	SW	4.23	22.9%	9.6%	3.4%	.261	3.16	24.7%	16.1%	143	-1.07	2.29	332	70
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	69
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.22 FIP	29	SW	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.21	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.01	2.80	410	69
Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.05 FIP	29	SW	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.89	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.84	3.05	227	69
Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	29	SW	4.03	24.4%	10.9%	2.9%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.65	2.38	160	69
Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	29	SW	3.40	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.44	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.04	2.83	432	69
Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	29	SW	3.56	21.4%	11.1%	1.6%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.33	2.83	228	68
Jumbo Diaz R 2028 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	68
Kaleb Ort R 2026 · 2.96 FIP	29	SU	2.96	27.3%	9.4%	1.8%	.310	4.02	24.9%	14.9%	157	+1.06	1.75	365	68
Blake Treinen R 2026 · 2.99 FIP	29	SW	2.99	22.8%	6.8%	1.8%	.332	2.92	26.6%	18.0%	165	-0.07	1.54	521	68
Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	29	SW	3.43	21.8%	10.9%	1.5%	.248	3.26	25.4%	15.3%	117	-0.17	2.39	556	67
Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	67
Matt Bush R 2027 · 2.88 FIP	30	SW	2.88	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.96	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.08	2.88	249	67

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.413 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$6M	+1.0	$8M	+$2M
2027	Arb-3	$6M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$11M	+$2M