Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants | 12 | 0 | 22 | 87 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 1.66 | 3.34 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants | 12 | 0 | 22 | 87 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 27.6% | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 1.66 | 2.27 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Giants | 17 | 0 | 32 | 133 | 51 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 0.0% | 3.90 | 2.45 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Giants | 17 | 0 | 32 | 133 | 51 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 38.3% | 9.8% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 3.90 | 1.15 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 44 | 0 | 53 | 228 | 78 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.3% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 1.0% | 3.06 | 3.29 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 44 | 0 | 53 | 228 | 78 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.2% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 0.9% | 3.06 | 2.18 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | San Jose Giants | 45 | 0 | 56 | 244 | 80 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.2% | 16.0% | 9.2% | 1.1% | 3.83 | 3.63 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | San Jose Giants | 45 | 0 | 56 | 244 | 80 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.8% | 13.9% | 18.9% | 0.8% | 3.83 | 2.53 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 58 | 253 | 81 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.9% | 12.7% | 17.2% | 3.0% | 4.06 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 58 | 253 | 81 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.0% | 12.3% | 19.8% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 3.48 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 68 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 80 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 9.8% | 18.2% | 1.5% | 2.53 | 2.81 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 68 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 80 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 9.8% | 18.2% | 1.4% | 2.53 | 2.75 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 69 | 0 | 68 | 281 | 87 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.0% | 7.1% | 23.8% | 1.2% | 2.93 | 2.02 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 69 | 0 | 68 | 281 | 87 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.0% | 7.1% | 23.8% | 1.1% | 2.93 | 1.99 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 65 | 291 | 85 | 38 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 13.7% | 15.1% | 2.0% | 4.73 | 3.50 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 65 | 291 | 85 | 38 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 13.1% | 16.2% | 1.7% | 4.73 | 3.24 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 69 | 0 | 65 | 278 | 72 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.9% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 1.3% | 3.58 | 3.20 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 69 | 0 | 65 | 278 | 72 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.9% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 1.4% | 3.58 | 3.25 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 40 | 0 | 35 | 157 | 35 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.3% | 7.0% | 15.3% | 3.8% | 5.09 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 10.6% | 15.5% | 2.5% | 3.65 | 3.61 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 10.6% | 15.5% | 2.5% | 3.65 | 3.61 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 62 | 271 | 65 | 23 | 9 | — | — | 23.9% | 8.5% | 15.4% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 62 | 263 | 65 | 23 | 9 | — | — | 24.6% | 8.8% | 15.9% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 65 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 10.9% | 15.2% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 58 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 52 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 62 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 10.9% | 15.2% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 56 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 50 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 511 | 0 | 505 | 2154 | 586 | 223 | 48 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.2% | 10.4% | 16.8% | 2.2% | 3.80 | 3.34 | +12.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 202 | 0 | 200 | 853 | 232 | 88 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.2% | 10.4% | 16.8% | 2.2% | 3.80 | 3.34 | +4.8 | ||
| Career | — | 488 | 0 | 522 | 2238 | 604 | 265 | 36 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 11.8% | 15.2% | 1.6% | 3.57 | 3.20 | +13.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 0 | 200 | 858 | 231 | 101 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 11.8% | 15.2% | 1.6% | 3.57 | 3.20 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Camilo Doval (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.73 | 29.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | — | 4.38 | 25.3% | 14.1% | 164 | +0.65 | — | — | — |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .325 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.05 | 210 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 72 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 71 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 71 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.30 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -0.96 | 2.39 | 332 | 71 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 70 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.35 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 3.85 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 181 | +0.50 | 1.74 | 468 | 70 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 70 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 70 |
| Kaleb Ort R 2026 · 2.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.73 | 27.3% | 9.4% | 1.3% | .310 | 3.99 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 157 | +1.26 | 1.75 | 404 | 70 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 70 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.07 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.81 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 69 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2028 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 69 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 68 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 68 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 68 |
| Matt Bush R 2027 · 2.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.86 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .232 | 3.96 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 75 | +1.10 | 2.86 | 249 | 68 |
| Kelvin Herrera R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.92 | 22.6% | 7.2% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 297 | 67 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.09 | 27.2% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .190 | 3.23 | 24.4% | 14.2% | 43 | +0.14 | 2.16 | 186 | 67 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 26.4% | 11.5% | 1.05 | 4.13 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |