Isaiah Campbell

P Reno Aces

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	22	23	6.26	5.23	23.4%	6.5%	-0.2	K 23.3% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.54
2025	27	MIX2 levels	49	65	4.27	3.73	16.9%	7.1%	0.6	K 15.5% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.84
2026	28	AAAARI	52	54	6.83	3.69	25.1%	7.2%	—	K 21.6% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.02
2027PROJ	29	MLBARI	7	7	4.43	4.44	19.7%	7.0%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBARI	19	20	4.55	4.64	19.4%	7.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBARI	24	25	4.72	4.85	19.0%	8.0%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command45FB velo54

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsTyler Walker (age 29) · Neil Wagner (age 29) · Bo Schultz (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.44

K%19.7%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	5	0	19	78	20	6	2	0%	3.9	19.7%	8.8%	10.9%	3.0%	2.33	4.19	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	5	0	19	78	20	6	2	0%	3.9	25.6%	7.7%	17.9%	2.6%	2.33	3.31	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	4	46	179	59	12	4	12%	1.4	25.9%	7.7%	18.3%	2.6%	1.57	3.31	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	4	46	179	59	12	4	12%	1.4	33.0%	6.7%	26.3%	2.2%	1.57	2.45	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	53	215	60	19	4	0%	1.1	25.5%	9.2%	16.4%	2.3%	2.73	3.35	+0.8
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	53	215	60	19	4	0%	1.1	27.9%	8.8%	19.1%	1.9%	2.73	2.89	+1.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	23	107	25	7	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	6.4%	16.9%	4.7%	6.26	4.54	+0.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	23	107	25	7	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	6.4%	16.9%	4.7%	6.26	4.54	+0.0
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	23	107	25	7	6	0%	1.0	23.4%	6.5%	16.8%	5.6%	6.26	5.23	-0.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	65	295	50	21	6	0%	1.3	15.5%	6.9%	8.6%	2.1%	4.27	3.84	+0.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	65	295	50	21	6	0%	1.3	15.5%	6.9%	8.6%	2.1%	4.27	3.84	+0.5
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	65	295	50	21	6	0%	1.3	16.9%	7.1%	9.8%	2.0%	4.27	3.73	+0.6
2026	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	52	0	54	251	63	18	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	6.5%	15.1%	3.5%	6.83	4.02	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	52	0	54	251	63	18	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	6.5%	15.1%	3.5%	6.83	4.02	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	52	0	54	251	63	18	8	0%	1.0	25.1%	7.2%	17.9%	3.2%	6.83	3.69	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			41	0	43	192	42	15	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	7.8%	14.1%	3.1%	5.65	4.01	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ARI	7	0	7	30	6	2	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	7.0%	12.7%	3.2%	4.43	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	51	0	54	227	44	17	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	7.5%	11.9%	3.4%	4.55	4.64	-0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	ARI	42	0	44	188	36	15	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.0%	10.9%	3.6%	4.72	4.85	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	19	0	20	84	16	6	3	0%	1.1	19.4%	7.5%	11.9%	3.4%	4.55	4.64	-0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	ARI	24	0	25	106	20	8	4	0%	1.0	19.0%	8.0%	10.9%	3.6%	4.72	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	0	87	379	78	30	12	0%	1.1	20.5%	7.8%	12.7%	3.3%	5.14	4.16	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	868	179	69	27	0%	1.0	20.5%	7.8%	12.7%	3.3%	5.14	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		211	4	260	1125	242	84	32	2%	1.2	21.5%	7.4%	14.0%	2.8%	4.04	3.79	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	3	200	864	186	64	25	2%	1.2	21.5%	7.4%	14.0%	2.8%	4.04	3.79	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 54 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.02 (+0.38)K% 25.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.10%	—	×0.860	21.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.17%	—	×0.900	6.45%
HR / BF /BF	3.19%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.51%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 58 IPFIP 3.60 → 3.84 (+0.24)K% 18.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.08%	—	×0.860	15.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.984	×1.100	2.15%

Result: FIP 3.60 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 16 IPFIP 4.07 → 4.54 (+0.48)K% 27.1% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.14%	—	×0.860	23.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×0.900	6.43%
HR / BF /BF	4.29%	÷0.996	×1.100	4.73%

Result: FIP 4.07 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAArkansas Travelers · 24 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.81 (+1.02)K% 28.4% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.42%	—	×0.810	23.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.37%	—	×1.100	8.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷0.853	×1.200	2.96%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Everett AquaSox · 33 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.34 (+0.72)K% 28.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.46%	—	×0.770	21.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.13%	—	×1.150	9.35%
HR / BF /BF	1.63%	÷1.237	×1.250	1.64%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 147).

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAArkansas Travelers · 13 IPFIP 1.89 → 3.25 (+1.36)K% 42.9% → 34.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.86%	—	×0.810	34.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.57%	—	×1.100	3.93%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷0.909	×1.200	4.72%

Result: FIP 1.89 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 19 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.19 (+0.87)K% 25.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.64%	—	×0.770	19.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.150	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.078	×1.250	2.97%

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaiah Campbell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	19.7%	7.0%	3.2%	—	4.74	19.2%	11.5%	98	+0.30	—	—	—
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	88
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	87
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	84
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	83
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	82
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	81
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	81
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	80
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	80
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	79
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	79
Austin Adams R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	29	SU	3.40	21.1%	6.1%	2.4%	.376	5.80	20.8%	10.2%	60	+2.40	3.40	162	79
Jared Burton R 2009 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	17.0%	6.4%	1.9%	.283	3.09	22.4%	16.3%	62	-0.42	3.09	367	78
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	78
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	78
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	78
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	78
Andres Avila R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	29	SU	4.06	19.1%	7.0%	3.1%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	177	77
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	77
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	52	19.9%	7.6%	1.27	4.77
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*