Homer Bush Jr.

CF Durham Bulls
Age 25 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
ETA2029MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422A+TB462.272/.363/.36365757—.212/.282/.281
202523AATB546.301/.377/.36005780—.272/.332/.325
202624AAATB392.234/.301/.32953852—.214/.269/.292
2027PROJ10% MLB25MLBTB21.210/.269/.2720153-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB26MLBTB88.214/.273/.2871658-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB27MLBTB123.215/.275/.2911860-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed88
K%26
Max EV25
BB%22
Whiff%17
Chase%12
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%
CompsTyler Tolbert (age 25) · Terrance Gore (age 26) · Cam Eden (age 26)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†53
AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .269 / .272
PA21
HR0
K%29
BB%5
BABIP304
ISO50
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -11.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-12BATRUN: +2.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+2RUNFLD: +1.8 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.2-0.1-0.1272829
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202321 AASan Antonio Missions — 2928 12100 120 11 429448464913 36462 73 412 139 — — — — — —
202321 ALake Elsinore Storm — 10585 21501 12155 111 247373341714 94286 1411 325 72 — — — — — —
202321 ROKACL Padres — 5344 18302 772 100 4095096141.123 205457 1313 493 130 — — — — — —
202422 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods — 462397 1081426 438715 5712 272363363726 91333 199 330 57 — — — — — —
202523 AAMontgomery Biscuits — 546472 1421280 489811 5712 301377360737 59375 189 330 80 — — — — — —
202624 AAADurham Bulls — 392346 811615 281067 3810 234301329630 95322 277 282 52 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202321 AA MLESan Antonio Missions — 2928 12100 120 11 429448464913 36441 73 373 139 — — — — — —
202321 A MLELake Elsinore Storm — 10589 20401 8215 111 225324303627 79273 208 275 72 — — — — — —
202321 ROK MLEACL Padres — 5347 14202 4102 100 298377468845 170352 198 360 130 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 462416 881215 2611915 5712 212282281564 70277 266 252 57 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 546489 1331270 3311811 5712 272332325657 53341 226 287 80 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 392359 771414 201277 3810 214269292562 78309 325 245 52 — — — — — —
202321 A MLE3 teams — 187164 45702 13347 222 274353354707 79333 187 314 99 — — — — — —
202321 A RAW3 teams — 187157 51903 20247 222 325424439863 115366 1311 386 99 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 462416 881215 2611915 5712 212282281564 70282 266 252 57 — — — — — —
202422 A+ RAWBowling Green Hot Rods — 462397 1081426 438715 5712 272363363726 91333 199 330 57 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 546489 1331270 3311811 5712 272332325657 53354 226 287 80 — — — — — —
202523 AA RAWMontgomery Biscuits — 546472 1421280 489811 5712 301377360737 59375 189 330 80 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 392359 771414 201277 3810 214269292562 78319 325 245 52 — — — — — —
202624 AAA RAWDurham Bulls — 392346 811615 281067 3810 234301329630 95322 277 282 52 — — — — — —
202321 A MLE3 teams — 187165 45702 13347 222 273353352705 79321 187 314 99 — — — — — —
202422 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 462418 881215 2611915 5712 211282280562 69277 266 252 57 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 546497 1331270 3311811 5712 268332320652 52341 226 287 80 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 392362 771414 201277 3810 213269290559 77309 325 245 52 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 462418 881215 2611915 5712 211282280562 69277 266 252 57 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 546497 1331270 3311811 5712 268332320652 52341 226 287 80 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 392362 771414 201277 3810 213269290559 77309 325 245 52 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLETB 10% 380349 721122 211167 276 207266269535 62300 316 246 53 -21 +3 +3 +1 +8 -0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXTB 10% 2120 4100 160 10 210269272540 61304 295 248 53 -1 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLETB 35% 253232 48712 15764 184 211271286556 74300 306 254 58 -13 +2 +2 +1 +5 -0.2
202927 MLB MLETB 44% 280256 55823 17835 195 212272289562 77299 306 256 60 -13 +2 +2 +1 +6 -0.2
202826 MLB CTXTB 35% 8882 17211 5261 61 214273287561 73304 306 256 58 -4 +1 +1 +0 +2 -0.1
202927 MLB CTXTB 44% 123113 25411 7372 82 215275291566 76303 306 258 60 -6 +1 +1 +0 +3 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 211195 42622 12633 143 215271297569 82305 306 257 65 -10 +2 +2 +1 +5 -0.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650601 1291866 371949 439 215270295565 80304 306 257 65 -32 +5 +6 +2 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 23302108 486661317 13662153 22648 231294298592 68316 276 264 65 -38 +6 +6 +3 +16 -0.7
/ 162G— MLE — 650588 1361845 3817315 6313 231295301596 70317 276 264 65 -33 +5 +6 +2 +14 -0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 392 PAwOBA .276 → .245 (−31)K% 27.0% → 32.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.04%÷1.000×1.200——32.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.14%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0335.09%
HBP% /PA1.79%—×0.940—×1.0331.73%
Singles /BIP24.58%÷1.000×0.930×1.027×1.03324.26%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷1.000×0.830×1.027×1.0335.87%
Triples /BIP0.42%÷1.000×0.970×1.027×1.0330.43%
Home runs /BIP2.08%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0331.51%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .276 → .245; ISO .095 → .077; BABIP .322 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 546 PAwOBA .325 → .287 (−38)K% 17.9% → 21.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.95%÷1.010×1.220——21.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.79%÷0.988×0.680—×1.0126.12%
HBP% /PA2.01%—×0.840—×1.0121.71%
Singles /BIP32.62%÷1.045×0.920×1.022×1.01229.71%
Doubles /BIP3.21%÷0.976×0.910×1.022×1.0123.10%
Triples /BIP2.14%÷1.150×0.880×1.022×1.0121.69%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.922×0.800—×1.0120.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .325 → .287; ISO .059 → .053; BABIP .375 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 462 PAwOBA .323 → .252 (−72)K% 18.8% → 25.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.83%÷0.956×1.310——25.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.31%÷0.972×0.600—×0.9985.73%
HBP% /PA3.25%—×0.770—×0.9982.49%
Singles /BIP27.74%÷1.047×0.870×1.002×0.99823.04%
Doubles /BIP4.52%÷0.898×0.780×1.002×0.9983.92%
Triples /BIP0.65%÷1.150×0.850×1.002×0.9980.48%
Home runs /BIP1.94%÷1.015×0.880—×0.9981.67%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 91, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .323 → .252; ISO .091 → .076; BABIP .333 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 105 PAwOBA .320 → .275 (−45)K% 14.3% → 20.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.29%÷0.953×1.360——20.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.43%÷1.032×0.690——7.64%
HBP% /PA4.76%—×0.780——3.71%
Singles /BIP21.43%÷0.951×0.920×1.043—21.62%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷1.065×0.830×1.043—5.81%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.910×1.043—0.00%
Home runs /BIP1.43%÷1.121×0.800——1.02%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .320 → .275; ISO .094 → .075; BABIP .286 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Padres · 53 PAwOBA .480 → .360 (−121)K% 13.2% → 19.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.21%÷0.983×1.440——19.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.21%÷0.972×0.620—×0.9758.21%
HBP% /PA3.77%—×0.720—×0.9752.65%
Singles /BIP35.14%÷1.006×0.820—×0.97527.91%
Doubles /BIP8.11%÷1.001×0.720—×0.9755.68%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.931×0.720—×0.9750.00%
Home runs /BIP5.41%÷0.912×0.780—×0.9754.51%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 86, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .480 → .360; ISO .205 → .161; BABIP .457 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 29 PAwOBA .401 → .373 (−27)K% 6.9% → 8.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA6.90%÷0.987×1.220——8.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.45%÷0.927×0.700—×1.0422.71%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×1.0420.00%
Singles /BIP42.31%÷0.986×0.920—×1.04241.12%
Doubles /BIP3.85%÷1.116×0.840—×1.0423.02%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.010×0.940—×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.820×0.800—×1.0420.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 123, 3B 102, K 97, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .401 → .373; ISO .036 → .028; BABIP .462 → .441. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).