Homer Bush Jr. — OGILVIE

Homer Bush Jr.CF Durham Bulls

Age 24 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs AAA HR +6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION374 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP312

ISO63

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE42

scouting grade only

SPEED80

scouting grade only

DEFENSE70

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	29	28	12	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	429	448	464	913	36	462	7	3	412	165	+2	-0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	105	85	21	5	0	1	12	15	5	11	1	247	373	341	714	94	286	14	11	325	106	+1	+2	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	21	ROK	ACL Padres	—	53	44	18	3	0	2	7	7	2	10	0	409	509	614	1.123	205	457	13	13	493	220	+8	+2	—	—	+1	1.1
2024	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	397	108	14	2	6	43	87	15	57	12	272	363	363	726	91	333	19	9	330	110	+5	+7	—	—	+10	2.2
2025	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	546	472	142	12	8	0	48	98	11	57	12	301	377	360	737	59	375	18	9	330	110	+6	+7	—	—	+12	2.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	29	28	11	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	393	414	429	842	36	433	7	3	366	134	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	105	89	20	4	0	1	8	21	5	11	1	225	324	303	627	79	271	20	8	277	74	-3	+2	—	—	+2	0.1
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	53	47	15	2	0	2	4	10	2	10	0	319	396	489	886	170	361	19	8	368	135	+2	+2	—	—	+1	0.5
2024	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	413	92	12	2	5	29	122	15	57	12	223	298	298	595	75	293	26	6	261	63	-20	+7	—	—	+10	-0.4
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	546	489	133	11	7	0	33	118	11	57	12	272	332	323	655	51	342	22	6	288	81	-12	+7	—	—	+12	0.6
2023	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	187	163	46	7	0	3	14	34	7	22	2	282	364	380	744	98	339	18	7	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	3 teams	—	187	157	51	9	0	3	20	24	7	22	2	325	424	439	863	115	366	13	11	386	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	413	92	12	2	5	29	122	15	57	12	223	298	298	595	75	302	26	6	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	397	108	14	2	6	43	87	15	57	12	272	363	363	726	91	333	19	9	330	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	546	489	133	11	7	0	33	118	11	57	12	272	332	323	655	51	354	22	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	546	472	142	12	8	0	48	98	11	57	12	301	377	360	737	59	375	18	9	330	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	187	164	46	7	0	3	14	34	7	22	2	280	364	378	742	98	322	18	7	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	415	92	12	2	5	29	122	15	57	12	222	298	296	594	75	293	26	6	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	546	497	133	11	7	0	33	118	11	57	12	268	332	318	650	50	342	22	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	187	164	46	7	0	3	14	34	7	22	2	280	364	378	742	98	322	18	7	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	415	92	12	2	5	29	122	15	57	12	222	298	296	594	75	293	26	6	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	546	497	133	11	7	0	33	118	11	57	12	268	332	318	650	50	342	22	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	TB	—	374	342	69	13	1	3	19	125	7	36	8	202	258	272	530	70	307	33	5	237	47	-24	+4	+0	+1	+8	-1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA RAW	TB	—	374	329	76	15	1	5	28	104	7	36	8	231	302	328	630	97	321	28	7	283	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	AAA MLE	TB	10%	10	9	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	222	300	222	522		303	30	10	254	58	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	24	MLB CTX	TB	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						312	0	0	246	58	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	MLB A+C	TB	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	246	47	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	24	AAA MLE	TB	—	384	351	71	13	1	3	20	128	7	37	8	202	259	271	530	68	308	33	5	237	47	-24	+4	+0	+1	+8	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	42%	370	338	76	12	2	5	22	104	7	28	6	225	286	317	603	92	303	28	6	268	68	-14	+3	+5	+1	+8	0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	58%	407	371	83	13	2	6	26	112	7	31	7	224	287	318	605	94	302	28	6	276	73	-13	+3	+5	+1	+9	0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	62%	420	383	87	14	2	7	27	115	7	32	7	227	290	329	619	102	301	27	6	278	74	-13	+4	+5	+1	+9	0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	65%	425	387	87	14	2	7	28	116	7	31	7	225	289	326	615	101	301	27	7	279	75	-13	+3	+5	+2	+9	0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	65%	420	382	86	14	2	7	28	116	7	28	6	225	290	327	617	102	300	28	7	277	73	-13	+3	+4	+1	+9	0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	65%	414	376	83	13	2	6	28	115	7	25	5	221	287	314	601	93	299	28	7	274	72	-14	+3	+3	+1	+9	0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	42%	157	144	33	5	1	2	9	44	3	12	3	229	288	319	608	90	311	28	6	261	68	-6	+1	+2	+1	+3	0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	58%	234	213	49	8	1	4	15	65	4	18	4	230	293	333	626	103	310	28	6	269	73	-8	+2	+3	+1	+5	0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	62%	262	239	55	9	1	4	17	72	4	20	4	230	292	326	619	96	310	27	6	272	74	-8	+2	+3	+1	+6	0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	65%	277	252	59	10	1	5	18	76	5	20	4	234	298	341	639	107	309	27	6	273	75	-8	+2	+3	+1	+6	0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	65%	272	247	56	9	1	4	18	75	5	18	4	227	293	320	612	93	309	28	7	271	73	-9	+2	+3	+1	+6	0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	65%	267	243	55	9	1	4	18	74	4	16	4	226	291	321	612	95	308	28	7	268	72	-9	+2	+2	+1	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1470	1339	307	50	6	23	95	406	25	104	23	229	293	327	620	98	310	28	6	270	74	-48	+12	+16	+5	+32	1.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	136	22	3	10	42	180	11	46	10	230	293	328	621	98	311	28	6	270	74	-21	+5	+7	+2	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	3661	3311	775	110	21	46	236	955	75	312	64	234	300	322	621	88	313	26	6	278	74	-81	+20	+28	+9	+53	3.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	138	20	4	8	42	170	13	55	11	235	300	323	623	88	314	26	6	278	74	-21	+5	+7	+2	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jarrod Dysonlast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 2,833 PA	4.3	2,833	21	266	244	314	332	+10	+50	11.8	11.6
/162	664	5	62	+2.4	+11.7	2.8	pk7: 11
#2Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	4.2	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
/162	664	14	30	+2.4	+12.6	2.5	pk7: 11
#3Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
/162	664	4	44	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Tony Gwynn Jr.last yr '14 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,749 PA	2.6	1,749	7	77	239	310	313	+1	+35	4.1	4.1
/162	664	3	29	+0.5	+13.1	1.6	pk7: 4
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
/162	664	1	37	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.3	1,502	23	107	225	286	321	+5	+32	1.0	1.0
/162	664	10	47	+2.4	+14.2	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Homer Bush Jr. (OGILVIE)	24	50	30	80	42	214/272/278	65	303	2	27	29%	6%	58	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Billy Hamilton 2014 · MLB	23	51→61	37→40	76→70	45	240/290/316	76	317	3	76	25%	7%	72	-0.7	236/284/320	84	292	5	63	20%	6%	71	-0.8	241/300/326	84	310	4	55	22%	8%	76	-0.4
✕Tyler Tolbert 2023 · A	25	39→49	39→45	70→65	42	185/254/277	92	281	5	40	34%	8%	51	-2.2	217/272/314	97	302	7	40	29%	6%	65	-1.2	227/289/306	79	310	6	60	27%	6%	68	-0.5
✕Terrance Gore 2016 · AAA	25	49→42	33→30	66→70	42	224/282/264	40	311	1	49	27%	6%	58	-1.7	215/266/260	45	292	2	46	25%	6%	51	-2.3	193/256/240	47	276	1	52	28%	6%	40	-1.0
✕Wes Rogers 2018 · A	24	48→51	39→40	63→65	44	230/284/325	95	300	6	39	24%	6%	73	-0.6	202/256/284	82	293	6	24	31%	6%	53	-2.1	178/233/244	65	267	5	20	33%	6%	33	-2.0
✕Rafael Bautista 2017 · AA	24	53→55	35→30	61→60	44	248/291/307	59	301	3	36	18%	5%	70	-0.8	231/275/292	61	289	3	23	20%	5%	61	-1.5	222/262/283	61	278	4	13	21%	4%	50	-0.8
✕Braiden Ward 2023 · A	24	48→47	39→40	64→70	41	218/312/303	85	321	6	41	31%	6%	80	-0.1	220/307/306	86	308	5	49	28%	6%	79	-0.2	224/314/320	95	301	5	64	25%	6%	81	-0.1
✕Steward Berroa 2023 · AA	24	39→49	43→45	68→65	44	192/265/310	118	278	10	46	33%	9%	63	-1.4	217/291/323	106	319	9	46	32%	9%	75	-0.5	221/299/315	94	323	7	52	31%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Ian Miller 2017 · AA	25	52→60	34→40	64→60	46	242/289/300	58	293	1	37	17%	6%	68	-1.0	245/291/319	74	311	4	33	21%	5%	74	-0.6	241/289/323	82	308	5	35	22%	5%	71	-0.7
✕Darin Mastroianni 2010 · AA	24	51→59	36→40	62→60	49	238/306/304	66	309	3	39	22%	8%	76	-0.4	249/312/330	81	314	3	35	20%	8%	84	+0.1	251/314/334	83	314	3	38	20%	8%	82	+0.0
✕David Hamilton 2023 · AA	25	42	43→50	69→70	45	209/271/322	113	275	10	47	27%	7%	68	-1.0	212/280/343	131	273	14	51	26%	8%	76	-0.4	226/287/352	126	279	13	56	23%	8%	79	-0.1
✕John Andreoli 2015 · AA	25	51→58	35→45	63→60	49	233/304/300	67	311	2	35	24%	9%	74	-0.5	218/293/322	104	308	8	32	29%	9%	76	-0.4	211/293/325	114	305	10	29	31%	10%	75	-0.5
✕Myles Straw 2019 · AAA	24	57→58	35→40	63→60	50	261/326/322	61	338	2	37	22%	9%	87	+0.4	256/323/323	67	329	3	33	21%	9%	86	+0.3	250/325/314	63	308	2	27	18%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Rico Noel 2013 · A	24	48→55	34→30	62→65	42	219/284/268	49	319	2	45	30%	7%	59	-1.6	228/289/280	52	324	2	43	28%	7%	64	-1.3	227/290/274	47	317	1	49	26%	7%	61	-0.9
✕Billy Burns 2015 · AAA	25	54→64	35→40	65	50	251/315/311	60	309	1	41	18%	8%	81	-0.1	256/302/329	73	308	3	30	17%	5%	80	-0.2	262/307/330	68	313	2	29	16%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Jesus Galindo 2014 · A	23	50→51	35→30	62→65	41	233/284/289	56	318	2	37	26%	6%	64	-1.3	229/276/301	72	315	3	25	27%	5%	64	-1.3	228/276/299	70	312	3	25	26%	5%	59	-1.1
✕Jayce Easley 2022 · A	22	47→46	36→30	64→65	54	213/313/279	66	305	3	44	28%	12%	74	-0.5	193/289/259	66	282	4	32	29%	11%	61	-1.5	165/267/213	48	250	3	32	31%	11%	42	-1.2
✕Darren Ford 2009 · A	23	45→53	37→45	61→65	44	213/276/287	74	308	5	38	31%	8%	61	-1.5	222/280/319	97	311	7	33	29%	7%	70	-0.9	227/283/330	104	311	8	36	28%	6%	70	-0.6
✕Luis Valdez 2023 · A	23	51→53	36→40	62→70	40	234/287/301	66	345	4	41	32%	6%	68	-1.0	199/246/265	66	316	3	45	36%	5%	45	-2.7	170/214/228	58	280	2	60	38%	5%	21	-1.5
✕Tyler Graham 2009 · A	25	50→54	37→40	60→65	41	236/282/306	71	304	4	39	23%	5%	67	-1.1	251/296/330	79	321	6	41	23%	5%	78	-0.3	263/315/330	67	333	2	52	20%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Jarrod Dyson 2010 · AA	25	52→58	34→45	63→70	43	240/288/292	53	323	1	42	25%	6%	65	-1.2	247/298/320	73	312	3	44	20%	7%	76	-0.4	256/324/360	104	294	5	53	14%	7%	92	+0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps