Homer Bush Jr. — OGILVIE

Homer Bush Jr.CF Durham Bulls

Age 24 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION235 act + 156 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .276 / .278

PA156

HR1

SB11

K%29

BB%6

BABIP307

ISO63

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE43

scouting grade only

SPEED80

scouting grade only

DEFENSE70

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A	3 teams	—	187	164	47	7	0	3	13	35	7	22	2	287	364	384	748	98	346	19	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	3 teams	—	187	157	51	9	0	3	20	24	7	22	2	325	424	439	863	115	366	13	11	386	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	412	88	14	1	5	30	128	15	57	12	214	291	289	580	75	295	28	6	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	397	108	14	2	6	43	87	15	57	12	272	363	363	726	91	333	19	9	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	546	488	126	11	6	0	34	124	11	57	12	258	321	305	626	47	341	23	6	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	546	472	142	12	8	0	48	98	11	57	12	301	377	360	737	59	375	18	9	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AAA	TB	—	235	213	42	4	1	3	13	76	5	18	7	197	260	268	527	70	289	32	6	234	37	-17	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.9
YTD	24	AAA	TB	—	235	203	44	5	1	3	19	63	5	18	7	217	294	296	590	79	297	27	8	268	63	-10	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.2
ROS	24	AAA	TB	10%	156	143	31	4	1	1	9	46	3	11	3	216	276	278	555	63	299	29	6	252	51	-9	+1	+2	+1	+4	-0.1
ROS	24	MLB	TB	10%	16	15	3	0	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	200	250	200	450		304	31	6	240	42	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	AAA	TB	—	251	228	45	4	1	3	14	81	5	19	7	197	259	263	522	66	290	32	6	234	38	-18	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.9
TOT	24	AAA	TB	—	391	356	73	8	2	4	22	122	8	29	10	205	266	272	538	67	297	31	6	241	43	-25	+2	+2	+1	+11	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	TB	35%	370	336	73	9	2	4	24	105	7	25	7	217	283	292	575	74	300	28	6	266	62	-16	+2	+5	+1	+10	0.3
2028	26	MLB	TB	46%	407	370	82	11	2	6	27	113	7	27	8	222	287	311	598	89	300	28	7	274	68	-15	+2	+5	+1	+12	0.6
2029	27	MLB	TB	50%	420	380	84	11	2	7	29	116	8	28	8	221	290	316	606	95	300	28	7	276	70	-14	+2	+5	+1	+12	0.7
2030	28	MLB	TB	52%	425	384	86	12	2	7	30	118	8	27	8	224	294	320	614	96	299	28	7	277	70	-14	+2	+5	+2	+12	0.6
2027	25	MLB	TB	35%	129	118	26	3	1	1	8	37	2	9	2	220	281	288	569	68	305	29	6	254	53	-7	+1	+2	+0	+4	-0.0
2028	26	MLB	TB	46%	189	172	39	5	1	3	12	53	3	13	4	227	289	320	609	93	305	28	6	262	59	-9	+1	+2	+1	+5	0.1
2029	27	MLB	TB	50%	210	190	43	6	1	3	14	58	4	14	4	226	293	316	609	89	304	28	7	265	61	-9	+1	+3	+1	+6	0.1
2030	28	MLB	TB	52%	221	200	44	6	1	3	15	61	4	14	4	220	288	305	593	85	304	28	7	265	61	-10	+1	+2	+1	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	765	695	155	20	4	10	50	214	13	51	14	223	288	306	594	83	305	28	7	262	59	-36	+5	+9	+3	+22	0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	131	17	3	8	42	182	11	43	12	222	286	301	587	80	304	28	6	262	59	-30	+4	+8	+2	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	2973	2677	617	79	16	33	196	785	66	254	60	230	299	309	608	78	311	26	7	273	67	-111	+27	+22	+11	+84	3.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	134	17	3	7	43	172	14	56	13	229	298	304	602	75	310	26	7	273	67	-24	+6	+5	+2	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	29	28	12	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	429	448	464	913	36	462	7	3	412	173	+2	-0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	105	85	21	5	0	1	12	15	5	11	1	247	373	341	714	94	286	14	11	325	107	+1	+2	—	—	+3	0.6
2023	21	ROK	ACL Padres	—	53	44	18	3	0	2	7	7	2	10	0	409	509	614	1.123	205	457	13	13	493	235	+8	+2	—	—	+2	1.2
2024	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	462	397	108	14	2	6	43	87	15	57	12	272	363	363	726	91	333	19	9	330	111	+6	+7	—	—	+13	2.6
2025	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	546	472	142	12	8	0	48	98	11	57	12	301	377	360	737	59	375	18	9	330	111	+7	+7	—	—	+15	2.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	8	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
	/162	664	14	30	243	301	366	+2.4	+12.6	2.6	pk7: 11
#2Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Tony Gwynn Jr.last yr '14 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,749 PA	7	1,749	7	77	239	310	313	+1	+35	4.1	4.1
	/162	664	3	29	239	310	313	+0.5	+13.1	1.6	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	5	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	/162	664	1	37	251	310	309	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	781	11	52	223	286	313	+3	+16	0.0	0.1
	/162	664	10	44	223	286	313	+2.4	+13.6	0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Homer Bush Jr. (OGILVIE)	24	50	30	80	43	205/266/272	67	297	4	29	31%	6%	43	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Billy Hamilton 2014 · MLB	23	52→62	37→40	76→70	44	242/291/321	79	323	4	76	25%	6%	70	-0.3	236/283/321	85	293	5	63	20%	6%	66	-0.6	240/299/324	84	307	4	55	22%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Tyler Tolbert 2023 · A	25	38→46	39→45	70→65	41	184/250/276	91	280	5	40	34%	7%	43	-2.2	210/264/313	103	293	8	40	30%	6%	58	-1.2	217/276/298	80	302	7	58	29%	6%	56	-0.6
✕Wes Rogers 2018 · A	24	47→48	39→40	63→65	43	223/277/311	89	300	5	39	26%	6%	63	-0.9	195/249/269	74	292	5	24	33%	6%	40	-2.4	170/224/227	57	262	4	20	35%	6%	17	-2.3
✕Terrance Gore 2016 · AAA	25	49→43	33→30	66→70	42	226/282/267	41	311	1	49	26%	6%	53	-1.5	210/259/255	45	286	2	46	26%	5%	40	-2.4	190/250/239	48	271	1	52	28%	6%	29	-1.0
✕Rafael Bautista 2017 · AA	24	51→53	35→30	61→60	43	242/284/300	58	297	3	36	20%	5%	62	-0.9	228/272/288	60	287	3	23	20%	5%	53	-1.5	222/261/287	65	276	5	13	21%	4%	45	-0.7
✕Darin Mastroianni 2010 · AA	24	51→58	36→40	62→60	49	237/305/304	66	309	3	39	23%	8%	72	-0.2	245/307/327	82	311	4	35	21%	8%	79	+0.3	246/308/330	83	310	4	38	20%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Ian Miller 2017 · AA	25	52→60	34→40	64→60	46	243/290/302	58	298	1	37	18%	6%	64	-0.8	248/292/326	78	316	4	33	22%	5%	72	-0.2	245/291/333	88	313	6	35	22%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Braiden Ward 2023 · A	24	47→45	39→40	64→70	40	216/309/302	86	322	7	41	32%	6%	77	+0.1	216/302/305	89	306	6	49	29%	5%	74	-0.1	223/313/324	101	306	6	64	26%	6%	79	+0.2
✕Steward Berroa 2023 · AA	24	40→47	44→45	69→65	45	196/271/317	121	283	11	46	33%	9%	63	-0.9	218/289/328	110	324	10	46	33%	9%	72	-0.2	223/304/322	99	313	9	48	29%	10%	75	+0.0
✕Myles Straw 2019 · AAA	24	56→60	35→40	63→60	50	258/323/319	60	338	2	37	23%	8%	83	+0.6	257/323/324	67	331	3	33	21%	9%	85	+0.7	251/325/314	62	309	2	27	18%	10%	81	+0.4
✕John Andreoli 2015 · AA	25	51→58	36→45	63→60	49	235/306/301	67	315	2	35	24%	9%	72	-0.2	224/299/337	113	310	9	32	28%	9%	79	+0.3	221/301/349	128	309	11	29	30%	9%	80	+0.3
✕Rico Noel 2014 · AA	25	51→55	34→30	62→65	42	233/293/285	52	334	1	44	29%	6%	63	-0.9	213/273/267	54	305	2	41	29%	6%	50	-1.8	174/221/229	54	258	3	46	32%	4%	15	-1.0
✕David Hamilton 2022 · AA	24	42→41	42→50	65→70	46	207/269/319	112	274	8	36	27%	8%	62	-0.9	208/276/333	125	274	13	50	28%	8%	69	-0.4	220/282/351	131	271	15	58	24%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Jacob Young 2023 · A	24	49→58	36→40	62→60	46	227/293/293	66	298	3	28	23%	7%	65	-0.7	248/307/329	81	310	4	32	20%	6%	79	+0.3	251/311/329	77	310	4	35	19%	6%	79	+0.2
✕Luis Valdez 2023 · A	23	53→56	36→40	62→70	41	244/297/309	66	353	4	41	30%	6%	70	-0.3	201/249/269	68	319	3	45	36%	6%	40	-2.4	170/215/231	61	282	2	60	38%	5%	12	-1.4
✕Jayce Easley 2022 · A	22	46→45	36→30	64→65	53	212/308/277	65	300	3	44	28%	11%	69	-0.4	190/286/255	65	278	4	32	30%	11%	54	-1.4	160/263/207	47	244	3	32	32%	11%	31	-1.3
✕Jesus Galindo 2014 · A	23	50→52	35→40	62→65	42	234/287/293	58	317	2	37	26%	6%	61	-1.0	231/279/305	74	317	4	25	27%	5%	61	-1.0	232/279/304	72	317	3	25	26%	5%	56	-0.9
✕Ben DeLuzio 2019 · AA	24	52→49	37→45	59→60	39	241/288/317	77	343	3	34	30%	5%	68	-0.5	226/285/323	97	324	5	23	30%	6%	69	-0.4	217/279/323	106	304	7	28	29%	6%	63	-0.5
✕Darren Ford 2009 · A	23	45→53	37→45	61→65	44	213/276/287	74	308	5	38	31%	8%	56	-1.3	220/278/320	100	310	8	33	29%	7%	66	-0.6	223/278/332	109	308	9	36	29%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Adam Engel 2016 · A	24	42→48	39→50	61→60	38	203/255/284	81	299	6	33	33%	6%	46	-2.0	204/262/314	110	293	8	25	31%	6%	57	-1.2	224/280/353	129	300	12	21	28%	5%	73	-0.1