Homer Bush Jr.
CF Durham Bulls| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+TB | 462 | .272/.363/.363 | 6 | 57 | 57 | — | .212/.282/.281 |
| 2025 | 23 | AATB | 546 | .301/.377/.360 | 0 | 57 | 80 | — | .272/.332/.325 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAATB | 392 | .234/.301/.329 | 5 | 38 | 52 | — | .214/.269/.292 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 25 | MLBTB | 21 | .210/.269/.272 | 0 | 1 | 53 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 26 | MLBTB | 88 | .214/.273/.287 | 1 | 6 | 58 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 27 | MLBTB | 123 | .215/.275/.291 | 1 | 8 | 60 | -0.1 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 29 | 28 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 429 | 448 | 464 | 913 | 36 | 462 | 7 | 3 | 412 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 105 | 85 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 247 | 373 | 341 | 714 | 94 | 286 | 14 | 11 | 325 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 53 | 44 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 409 | 509 | 614 | 1.123 | 205 | 457 | 13 | 13 | 493 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 462 | 397 | 108 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 87 | 15 | 57 | 12 | 272 | 363 | 363 | 726 | 91 | 333 | 19 | 9 | 330 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 546 | 472 | 142 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 48 | 98 | 11 | 57 | 12 | 301 | 377 | 360 | 737 | 59 | 375 | 18 | 9 | 330 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 392 | 346 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 106 | 7 | 38 | 10 | 234 | 301 | 329 | 630 | 95 | 322 | 27 | 7 | 282 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 29 | 28 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 429 | 448 | 464 | 913 | 36 | 441 | 7 | 3 | 373 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 105 | 89 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 225 | 324 | 303 | 627 | 79 | 273 | 20 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 53 | 47 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 298 | 377 | 468 | 845 | 170 | 352 | 19 | 8 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 462 | 416 | 88 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 119 | 15 | 57 | 12 | 212 | 282 | 281 | 564 | 70 | 277 | 26 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 546 | 489 | 133 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 33 | 118 | 11 | 57 | 12 | 272 | 332 | 325 | 657 | 53 | 341 | 22 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 392 | 359 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 127 | 7 | 38 | 10 | 214 | 269 | 292 | 562 | 78 | 309 | 32 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 187 | 164 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 274 | 353 | 354 | 707 | 79 | 333 | 18 | 7 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 187 | 157 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 24 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 325 | 424 | 439 | 863 | 115 | 366 | 13 | 11 | 386 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 462 | 416 | 88 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 119 | 15 | 57 | 12 | 212 | 282 | 281 | 564 | 70 | 282 | 26 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 462 | 397 | 108 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 87 | 15 | 57 | 12 | 272 | 363 | 363 | 726 | 91 | 333 | 19 | 9 | 330 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 546 | 489 | 133 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 33 | 118 | 11 | 57 | 12 | 272 | 332 | 325 | 657 | 53 | 354 | 22 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 546 | 472 | 142 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 48 | 98 | 11 | 57 | 12 | 301 | 377 | 360 | 737 | 59 | 375 | 18 | 9 | 330 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 392 | 359 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 127 | 7 | 38 | 10 | 214 | 269 | 292 | 562 | 78 | 319 | 32 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 392 | 346 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 106 | 7 | 38 | 10 | 234 | 301 | 329 | 630 | 95 | 322 | 27 | 7 | 282 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 187 | 165 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 273 | 353 | 352 | 705 | 79 | 321 | 18 | 7 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 462 | 418 | 88 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 119 | 15 | 57 | 12 | 211 | 282 | 280 | 562 | 69 | 277 | 26 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 546 | 497 | 133 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 33 | 118 | 11 | 57 | 12 | 268 | 332 | 320 | 652 | 52 | 341 | 22 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 392 | 362 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 127 | 7 | 38 | 10 | 213 | 269 | 290 | 559 | 77 | 309 | 32 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 462 | 418 | 88 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 119 | 15 | 57 | 12 | 211 | 282 | 280 | 562 | 69 | 277 | 26 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 546 | 497 | 133 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 33 | 118 | 11 | 57 | 12 | 268 | 332 | 320 | 652 | 52 | 341 | 22 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 392 | 362 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 127 | 7 | 38 | 10 | 213 | 269 | 290 | 559 | 77 | 309 | 32 | 5 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | TB | 10% | 380 | 349 | 72 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 116 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 207 | 266 | 269 | 535 | 62 | 300 | 31 | 6 | 246 | 53 | -21 | +3 | +3 | +1 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | TB | 10% | 21 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 269 | 272 | 540 | 61 | 304 | 29 | 5 | 248 | 53 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 35% | 253 | 232 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 76 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 211 | 271 | 286 | 556 | 74 | 300 | 30 | 6 | 254 | 58 | -13 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 44% | 280 | 256 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 83 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 212 | 272 | 289 | 562 | 77 | 299 | 30 | 6 | 256 | 60 | -13 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | TB | 35% | 88 | 82 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 214 | 273 | 287 | 561 | 73 | 304 | 30 | 6 | 256 | 58 | -4 | +1 | +1 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 44% | 123 | 113 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 215 | 275 | 291 | 566 | 76 | 303 | 30 | 6 | 258 | 60 | -6 | +1 | +1 | +0 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 211 | 195 | 42 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 63 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 215 | 271 | 297 | 569 | 82 | 305 | 30 | 6 | 257 | 65 | -10 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +5 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 601 | 129 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 194 | 9 | 43 | 9 | 215 | 270 | 295 | 565 | 80 | 304 | 30 | 6 | 257 | 65 | -32 | +5 | +6 | +2 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2330 | 2108 | 486 | 66 | 13 | 17 | 136 | 621 | 53 | 226 | 48 | 231 | 294 | 298 | 592 | 68 | 316 | 27 | 6 | 264 | 65 | -38 | +6 | +6 | +3 | +16 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 136 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 173 | 15 | 63 | 13 | 231 | 295 | 301 | 596 | 70 | 317 | 27 | 6 | 264 | 65 | -33 | +5 | +6 | +2 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAADurham Bulls · 392 PAwOBA .276 → .245 (−31)K% 27.0% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.04% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.027 | ×1.033 | 24.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.027 | ×1.033 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×1.033 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .276 → .245; ISO .095 → .077; BABIP .322 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 546 PAwOBA .325 → .287 (−38)K% 17.9% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.95% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.79% | ÷0.988 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.01% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.62% | ÷1.045 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×1.012 | 29.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.21% | ÷0.976 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | ×1.012 | 3.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.14% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.022 | ×1.012 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.922 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .325 → .287; ISO .059 → .053; BABIP .375 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 462 PAwOBA .323 → .252 (−72)K% 18.8% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.83% | ÷0.956 | ×1.310 | — | — | 25.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.31% | ÷0.972 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 5.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.25% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 2.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.74% | ÷1.047 | ×0.870 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 23.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.52% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 3.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.94% | ÷1.015 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.67% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 91, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .323 → .252; ISO .091 → .076; BABIP .333 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 105 PAwOBA .320 → .275 (−45)K% 14.3% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.953 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | ×1.043 | — | 21.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×1.043 | — | 5.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.043 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.121 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.02% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .320 → .275; ISO .094 → .075; BABIP .286 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Padres · 53 PAwOBA .480 → .360 (−121)K% 13.2% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.21% | ÷0.983 | ×1.440 | — | — | 19.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.21% | ÷0.972 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 8.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.77% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 2.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.14% | ÷1.006 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 27.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.001 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.931 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.912 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 4.51% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 86, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .480 → .360; ISO .205 → .161; BABIP .457 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 29 PAwOBA .401 → .373 (−27)K% 6.9% → 8.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.90% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 8.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.45% | ÷0.927 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 2.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.31% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 41.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.116 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 3.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.820 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 123, 3B 102, K 97, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .401 → .373; ISO .036 → .028; BABIP .462 → .441. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).