Quinn Priester — OGILVIE

Quinn Priester P Nashville Sounds

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 224 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.1 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 154 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA4.40

FIP4.35

K%19.4%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP154

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p4424.5%

p3620.2%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

FB+8.2 (42%)

SL+1.9 (27%)

SI (42%)

CU (9%)

CH-0.8 (2%)

CT-2.6 (20%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.779 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$7M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$9M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	8	7	33	140	37	10	1	88%	4.1	18.0%	8.9%	9.0%	1.0%	3.03	3.26	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	8	7	33	140	37	10	1	88%	4.1	26.4%	7.1%	19.3%	0.7%	3.03	2.15	—
2021	20	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	20	20	98	407	98	39	8	100%	4.9	18.5%	11.0%	7.5%	2.0%	3.04	4.02	—
2021	20	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	20	20	98	407	98	39	8	100%	4.9	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	2.0%	3.04	3.36	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	19	90	377	89	30	6	100%	4.8	19.5%	7.8%	11.7%	1.4%	3.29	3.22	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	19	90	377	89	30	6	100%	4.8	23.6%	8.0%	15.6%	1.6%	3.29	2.99	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	28	158	693	152	74	18	88%	4.9	19.1%	10.0%	9.1%	2.7%	5.18	4.26	+1.2
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	28	158	693	152	74	18	88%	4.9	19.1%	10.0%	9.1%	2.7%	5.18	4.26	+1.2
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	28	158	693	152	74	18	88%	4.9	21.9%	10.7%	11.3%	2.6%	5.18	4.06	+1.6
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	122	518	111	33	13	85%	4.5	18.9%	6.0%	12.9%	2.7%	4.51	3.73	+1.7
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	122	518	111	33	13	85%	4.5	18.9%	6.0%	12.9%	2.7%	4.51	3.73	+1.7
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	122	518	111	33	13	85%	4.5	21.4%	6.4%	15.1%	2.5%	4.51	3.48	+2.1
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	25	161	672	138	50	18	83%	5.4	20.2%	7.7%	12.6%	2.6%	3.35	3.80	+2.1
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	25	161	672	138	50	18	83%	5.4	20.2%	7.7%	12.6%	2.6%	3.35	3.80	+2.1
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	25	161	672	138	50	18	83%	5.4	20.5%	7.4%	13.1%	2.7%	3.35	3.77	+2.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			50	39	257	1108	201	91	37	78%	5.1	18.1%	8.2%	9.9%	3.3%	4.45	4.47	+1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	8	8	16	96	18	24	1	100%	2.0	12.3%	23.3%	-11.0%	2.0%	15.75	6.14	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	8	8	16	96	18	24	1	100%	2.0	12.3%	23.3%	-11.0%	2.0%	15.75	6.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	MIL	2	2	6	30	8	7	0	100%	3.0	26.7%	23.3%	3.3%	0.0%	6.00	3.80	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	MIL	1	1	1	12	2	3	0	100%	1.3	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	0.0%	47.25	4.86	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	MIL	5	5	9	54	8	14	1	100%	1.7	14.8%	25.9%	-11.1%	1.9%	17.65	6.15	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	161	681	133	52	19	100%	6.0	19.5%	7.7%	11.8%	2.8%	4.36	4.34	+1.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	163	687	134	53	20	100%	6.0	19.5%	7.7%	11.7%	2.8%	4.37	4.38	+1.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	163	687	133	54	20	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	2.9%	4.43	4.46	+0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	156	657	123	53	20	100%	6.0	18.8%	8.1%	10.6%	3.1%	4.55	4.62	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	146	617	111	52	20	100%	6.1	18.1%	8.4%	9.7%	3.3%	4.72	4.83	+0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	136	575	100	50	20	100%	5.9	17.3%	8.8%	8.6%	3.5%	4.92	5.06	-0.2
2033	32	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	126	532	88	49	20	100%	6.0	16.5%	9.2%	7.3%	3.8%	5.16	5.32	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	109	460	90	35	14	100%	6.1	19.5%	7.7%	11.8%	2.9%	4.44	4.42	+0.7
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	127	536	104	42	16	100%	6.0	19.5%	7.7%	11.7%	3.0%	4.45	4.46	+0.8
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	138	583	113	46	18	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.51	4.54	+0.7
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	137	578	109	47	19	100%	6.0	18.8%	8.1%	10.6%	3.2%	4.63	4.70	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	132	557	101	47	19	100%	6.0	18.1%	8.4%	9.7%	3.5%	4.81	4.92	+0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	125	528	91	46	20	100%	6.0	17.3%	8.8%	8.6%	3.7%	5.02	5.16	-0.2
2033	32	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	117	494	82	45	20	100%	5.8	16.5%	9.2%	7.3%	4.0%	5.26	5.42	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		197	186	1140	4838	889	398	161	94%	5.8	18.4%	8.2%	10.1%	3.3%	4.66	4.42	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	848	156	70	28	94%	5.8	18.4%	8.2%	10.1%	3.3%	4.66	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		144	130	678	2903	552	261	67	90%	4.7	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	2.3%	4.21	3.90	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	38	200	857	163	77	20	90%	4.7	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	2.3%	4.21	3.90	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Quinn Priester (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	19.4%	7.7%	2.8%	—	4.39	19.4%	11.7%	487	+0.04	—	—	—
Mike Foltynewicz R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	25	SP	3.98	20.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.316	3.66	23.9%	15.8%	351	-0.32	3.17	938	82
Trevor Bauer R 2016 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP-	3.79	20.7%	8.5%	2.5%	.287	3.27	28.2%	19.9%	565	-0.52	2.16	1,111	78
Drew Hutchison R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	21.1%	8.7%	3.7%	.274	4.41	17.8%	8.5%	375	-0.06	4.07	1,027	75
Zach Eflin R 2019 · 4.36 FIP	25	SP	4.36	18.3%	6.1%	3.7%	.285	3.26	23.4%	19.1%	240	-1.10	2.81	1,337	74
Josiah Gray R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	25	SP	4.53	20.5%	11.3%	3.1%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	576	71
Luis Perdomo R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	25	SP	4.36	17.7%	8.0%	3.2%	.322	3.88	19.6%	12.5%	104	-0.48	3.49	715	70
Michael Wacha R 2016 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP	3.79	18.8%	6.4%	2.7%	.329	4.33	20.6%	12.0%	377	+0.54	3.57	1,638	70
Luis Garcia R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	25	SP	3.98	24.4%	7.3%	3.7%	.260	3.45	25.7%	18.4%	44	-0.53	3.40	535	69
Luis Castillo R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	25	SP	4.00	23.3%	6.8%	3.7%	.278	3.24	27.1%	17.8%	448	-0.76	2.44	1,858	69
Erasmo Ramírez R 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SP-	3.62	18.9%	6.0%	2.5%	.267	4.64	18.4%	13.0%	286	+1.02	2.92	908	69
Reynaldo López R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP	4.69	20.9%	8.0%	4.2%	.311	3.73	23.7%	16.3%	188	-0.96	1.72	1,274	69
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	68
Michael Fulmer R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	25	SP	4.41	19.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.284	4.05	21.8%	14.9%	97	-0.36	2.74	917	68
Nick Pivetta R 2018 · 3.51 FIP	25	SP	3.51	27.1%	7.3%	3.2%	.323	4.29	25.2%	15.5%	305	+0.78	1.37	1,583	68
A.J. Cole R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	17.1%	9.3%	2.4%	.351	4.52	25.6%	17.4%	115	+0.37	3.66	529	68
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	68
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	68
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	68
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	67
Lance McCullers Jr. R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	26.9%	9.5%	2.3%	.272	3.32	26.4%	15.9%	217	+0.01	2.77	861	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	149	18.6%	8.1%	1.20	4.59
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45