Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 34 | 27 | 163 | 666 | 126 | 40 | 16 | 79% | 4.8 | 18.9% | 6.0% | 12.9% | 2.5% | 3.75 | 3.66 | +3.3 |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 34 | 27 | 163 | 666 | 126 | 40 | 16 | 79% | 4.8 | 18.9% | 6.0% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 3.75 | 3.57 | +3.5 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 64 | 1 | 91 | 378 | 63 | 21 | 14 | 2% | 1.4 | 16.7% | 5.6% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 3.77 | 4.55 | +0.7 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 64 | 1 | 91 | 378 | 63 | 21 | 14 | 2% | 1.4 | 16.7% | 5.6% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 3.77 | 4.41 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 37 | 19 | 131 | 539 | 109 | 29 | 22 | 51% | 3.5 | 20.2% | 5.4% | 14.8% | 4.3% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 37 | 19 | 131 | 539 | 109 | 29 | 22 | 51% | 3.5 | 20.2% | 5.4% | 14.8% | 4.1% | 4.39 | 4.28 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 17 | 17 | 71 | 304 | 59 | 16 | 15 | 100% | 4.2 | 17.3% | 5.5% | 11.8% | 5.8% | 5.05 | 5.51 | -0.6 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 17 | 17 | 71 | 304 | 59 | 16 | 15 | 100% | 4.2 | 19.4% | 5.3% | 14.1% | 4.9% | 5.05 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 128 | 552 | 96 | 44 | 20 | 86% | 4.6 | 15.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 4.73 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 128 | 552 | 96 | 44 | 20 | 86% | 4.6 | 17.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 4.66 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 6 | 0 | 14 | 53 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 2.4 | 17.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 0.63 | 3.66 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 6 | 0 | 14 | 53 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 2.4 | 17.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 0.63 | 3.59 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 0 | 35 | 141 | 30 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.3% | 4.6% | 13.8% | 4.0% | 5.19 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 0 | 35 | 141 | 30 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 15.6% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 3.56 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 2 | 93 | 373 | 73 | 14 | 11 | 3% | 1.4 | 17.6% | 3.7% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 2.70 | 3.83 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 2 | 93 | 373 | 73 | 14 | 11 | 3% | 1.4 | 19.6% | 3.8% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 2.70 | 3.52 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 3 | 83 | 375 | 72 | 21 | 15 | 6% | 1.8 | 18.3% | 5.7% | 12.6% | 4.0% | 6.26 | 4.49 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 3 | 83 | 375 | 72 | 21 | 15 | 6% | 1.8 | 19.2% | 5.6% | 13.6% | 4.0% | 6.26 | 4.47 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 74 | 307 | 79 | 23 | 12 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.2% | 7.7% | 15.5% | 4.0% | 3.54 | 4.29 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 74 | 307 | 79 | 23 | 12 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.7% | 7.5% | 18.2% | 3.9% | 3.54 | 4.01 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 1 | 32 | 136 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 4% | 1.3 | 19.2% | 6.7% | 12.4% | 0.9% | 3.90 | 2.85 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 1 | 32 | 136 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 4% | 1.3 | 18.4% | 5.1% | 13.2% | 2.2% | 3.90 | 3.41 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 10 | 7 | 31 | 161 | 19 | 15 | 8 | 70% | 3.1 | 10.4% | 9.8% | 0.6% | 5.5% | 11.90 | 6.46 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | COL | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 45 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | COL | 1 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.9% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 36 | MLB | COL | — | — | 85 | 389 | 64 | 32 | 15 | — | — | 16.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 7.27 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 36 | MLB | COL | — | — | 5 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 19.9% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.11 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | COL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 37 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | COL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 30 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 5.11 | 5.33 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | COL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 37 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | COL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 30 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 5.11 | 5.33 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 373 | 62 | 746 | 3102 | 557 | 180 | 117 | 17% | 2.0 | 18.0% | 5.8% | 12.1% | 3.8% | 4.34 | 4.39 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 17 | 200 | 831 | 149 | 48 | 31 | 17% | 2.0 | 18.0% | 5.8% | 12.1% | 3.8% | 4.34 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 404 | 101 | 948 | 3985 | 720 | 247 | 147 | 25% | 2.3 | 18.1% | 6.2% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.47 | 4.39 | +11.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 21 | 200 | 841 | 152 | 52 | 31 | 25% | 2.3 | 18.1% | 6.2% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.47 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Erasmo Ramírez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 19.9% | 7.3% | 3.2% | — | 5.09 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 87 | +0.60 | — | — | — |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 73 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 73 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 72 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 65 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 65 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.24 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 326 | 65 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 64 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 64 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 64 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.96 | 22.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | .292 | 5.23 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 24 | +1.27 | 2.82 | 316 | 64 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 63 |
| Rafael Martín R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.60 | 22.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 227 | 63 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.26 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 212 | 63 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 63 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 62 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 62 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.63 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 140 | 62 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.86 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .295 | 5.60 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 27 | +1.74 | 2.61 | 339 | 61 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 60 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.28 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 244 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 47 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 1.39 | 4.81 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |