Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 58 | 0 | 60 | 249 | 47 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 3.62 | +0.7 |
| 2015 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 58 | 0 | 60 | 249 | 47 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 3.65 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 2 | 49 | 199 | 33 | 9 | 3 | 4% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 4.6% | 11.4% | 1.4% | 3.12 | 3.08 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 2 | 49 | 199 | 33 | 9 | 3 | 4% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 4.5% | 12.1% | 1.5% | 3.12 | 3.10 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 1 | 60 | 235 | 67 | 14 | 6 | 2% | 1.0 | 28.1% | 6.1% | 21.9% | 2.8% | 2.87 | 3.04 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 1 | 60 | 235 | 67 | 14 | 6 | 2% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 6.0% | 22.6% | 2.6% | 2.87 | 2.87 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 67 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 54 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 13.7% | 2.1% | 3.66 | 3.34 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 67 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 54 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 5.4% | 14.0% | 2.2% | 3.66 | 3.33 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 33% | 1.1 | 32.4% | 0.0% | 32.4% | 2.9% | 0.87 | 1.98 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 33% | 1.1 | 32.4% | 0.0% | 32.4% | 2.9% | 0.87 | 2.23 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 34 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 24 | 0 | 25 | 102 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 5.9% | 18.6% | 1.9% | 4.01 | 2.82 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 34 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 24 | 0 | 25 | 102 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 5.9% | 18.6% | 2.0% | 4.01 | 2.86 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 35 | MLB | New York Mets | 4 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 25% | 2.0 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.72 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 35 | MLB | New York Mets | 4 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 25% | 2.0 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.73 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 36 | MIX | 4 levels | 29 | 1 | 40 | 170 | 40 | 8 | 6 | 3% | 1.4 | 22.1% | 4.5% | 17.6% | 3.9% | 2.92 | 3.96 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 36 | MIX | 4 levels | 29 | 1 | 40 | 170 | 40 | 8 | 6 | 3% | 1.4 | 23.5% | 4.7% | 18.8% | 3.5% | 2.92 | 3.65 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 26 | 114 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.9% | 4.7% | 14.2% | 5.7% | 6.31 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 26 | 114 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.5% | 5.3% | 12.3% | 5.3% | 6.31 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 40 | MLB | NYM | 42 | 0 | 44 | 188 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 41 | MLB | NYM | 36 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 34 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 41 | MLB | NYM | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 29 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 4.89 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 313 | 1 | 334 | 1378 | 292 | 80 | 37 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 5.8% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.52 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 1 | 200 | 825 | 175 | 48 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 5.8% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 316 | 8 | 344 | 1415 | 299 | 72 | 38 | 3% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 5.1% | 16.0% | 2.7% | 3.51 | 3.44 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 5 | 200 | 823 | 174 | 42 | 22 | 3% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 5.1% | 16.0% | 2.7% | 3.51 | 3.44 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tommy Hunter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 3.2% | — | 4.89 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 38 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 40 | SU | 4.35 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 164 | 86 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 40 | SU | 5.63 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 6.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 133 | 70 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2028 · 3.31 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.31 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.7% | .293 | 3.98 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.67 | 3.31 | 123 | 68 |
| Peter Moylan R 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.77 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 174 | 66 |
| Luis Ayala R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.94 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 119 | 61 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 61 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 33 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.62 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 199 | 25 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 41 | SW | 4.46 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.3% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 20 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 41 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 1.33 | 4.55 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |