Zach Eflin — OGILVIE

Zach Eflin P Baltimore Orioles

Age 32 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.4 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION4 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 95

ERA3.93

FIP4.03

K%21.4%

BB%3.7%

K-BB%17.8%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6565

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1592.0

Whiff%

p1620.5%

p1016.2%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

CH+0.5 (26%)

CT (15%)

SI (19%)

CU (21%)

FB-0.6 (28%)

SL-1.3 (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.105 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$4M	+0.3	$1M	-$3M
Totals		$4M		$1M	-$3M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$10.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$25.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	MUTUAL OPT	$10.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	MUTUAL OPT	$15.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	21	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	23	23	132	541	68	21	12	100%	5.7	10.2%	4.3%	5.9%	2.6%	3.69	4.18	—
2015	21	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	23	23	132	541	68	21	12	100%	5.7	12.6%	3.9%	8.7%	2.2%	3.69	3.73	—
2016	22	MIX	2 levels	22	22	132	535	86	27	14	100%	6.0	14.8%	5.1%	9.7%	2.6%	4.17	3.94	+2.2
2016	22	MIX	2 levels	22	22	132	535	86	27	14	100%	6.0	16.1%	5.0%	11.0%	2.6%	4.17	3.79	+2.5
2017	23	MIX	4 levels	22	21	120	514	85	27	19	95%	5.4	14.6%	5.9%	8.7%	3.9%	5.04	4.78	+0.9
2017	23	MIX	4 levels	22	21	120	514	85	27	19	95%	5.4	16.5%	5.3%	11.3%	3.7%	5.04	4.42	+1.4
2018	24	MIX	2 levels	28	28	148	633	138	38	16	100%	5.3	21.5%	6.0%	15.5%	2.4%	4.32	3.39	+3.5
2018	24	MIX	2 levels	28	28	148	633	138	38	16	100%	5.3	21.8%	6.0%	15.8%	2.5%	4.32	3.41	+3.4
2019	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	32	28	163	705	129	43	28	88%	5.1	18.3%	6.1%	12.2%	3.8%	4.13	4.43	+1.8
2019	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	32	28	163	705	129	43	28	88%	5.1	18.3%	6.1%	12.2%	4.0%	4.13	4.54	+1.6
2020	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	11	10	59	245	70	15	8	91%	5.4	28.6%	6.1%	22.4%	3.2%	3.97	3.19	+0.9
2020	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	11	10	59	245	70	15	8	91%	5.4	28.6%	6.1%	22.4%	3.3%	3.97	3.25	+0.9
2021	27	MIX	2 levels	19	19	108	450	102	14	15	100%	5.7	22.4%	3.2%	19.2%	3.3%	4.08	3.41	+2.5
2021	27	MIX	2 levels	19	19	108	450	102	14	15	100%	5.7	22.7%	3.1%	19.6%	3.3%	4.08	3.41	+2.5
2022	28	MIX	2 levels	21	14	78	320	68	14	9	67%	3.7	20.8%	4.5%	16.3%	2.5%	4.06	3.27	+1.5
2022	28	MIX	2 levels	21	14	78	320	68	14	9	67%	3.7	21.2%	4.4%	16.9%	2.8%	4.06	3.40	+1.4
2023	29	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	178	703	186	23	19	100%	5.7	26.5%	3.3%	23.2%	2.9%	3.50	2.85	+5.3
2023	29	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	178	703	186	23	19	100%	5.7	26.5%	3.3%	23.2%	2.7%	3.50	2.78	+5.4
2024	30	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	165	684	134	24	22	100%	5.9	19.6%	3.5%	16.1%	3.0%	3.59	3.53	+3.6
2024	30	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	165	684	134	24	22	100%	5.9	19.6%	3.5%	16.1%	3.2%	3.59	3.64	+3.4
2025	31	MIX	4 levels	17	17	83	361	61	17	19	100%	4.9	16.2%	4.2%	12.0%	5.4%	5.29	5.24	-0.2
2025	31	MIX	4 levels	17	17	83	361	61	17	19	100%	4.9	16.9%	4.7%	12.2%	5.3%	5.29	5.21	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	32	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	1	1	4	17	7	2	1	100%	3.7	—	—	—	—	2.45	—	—
ROS	32	MLB	BAL	11	11	65	274	59	10	9	100%	5.9	21.4%	3.7%	17.8%	3.5%	3.93	4.03	+0.5
ROS	32	MLB	BAL	11	11	65	274	59	10	10	100%	5.9	21.4%	3.7%	17.8%	3.6%	4.00	4.10	+0.4
2026 TOT	32	MLB	BAL	—	—	68	291	66	12	10	—	—	22.6%	4.2%	18.4%	3.6%	3.85	3.81	+0.7
2026 FULL	32	MLB	BAL	—	—	68	289	66	12	11	—	—	22.7%	4.2%	18.5%	3.7%	3.92	3.76	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	BAL	18	18	109	459	94	19	17	100%	6.0	20.6%	4.1%	16.5%	3.7%	4.16	4.31	+1.4
2028	34	MLB	BAL	16	16	99	417	82	19	17	100%	6.2	19.7%	4.6%	15.1%	4.0%	4.43	4.62	+0.9
2027	33	MLB	BAL	18	18	109	460	95	19	18	100%	6.1	20.6%	4.1%	16.5%	3.9%	4.24	4.39	+1.3
2028	34	MLB	BAL	16	16	99	418	82	19	17	100%	6.2	19.7%	4.6%	15.1%	4.2%	4.51	4.70	+0.8
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			252	240	1350	5667	1164	257	208	95%	5.4	20.5%	4.5%	16.0%	3.7%	4.28	3.95	+22.8
/ 200 IP	—			37	36	200	840	173	38	31	95%	5.4	20.5%	4.5%	16.0%	3.7%	4.28	3.95	+3.4
Career	—			255	242	1369	5708	1097	270	182	95%	5.4	19.2%	4.7%	14.5%	3.2%	4.10	3.83	+25.2
/ 200 IP	—			37	35	200	834	160	39	27	95%	5.4	19.2%	4.7%	14.5%	3.2%	4.10	3.83	+3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Eflin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	21.4%	3.7%	3.5%	—	4.46	20.2%	15.8%	207	+0.43	—	—	—
Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 2.88 FIP	31	SP	2.88	21.7%	3.8%	2.1%	.336	5.71	12.5%	3.8%	91	+2.83	2.88	199	48
Jarrett Grube R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	33	SP	3.49	18.7%	4.2%	2.6%	.285	4.58	17.3%	9.6%	253	+1.09	3.49	393	48
Jorge Martinez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	32	SP	3.95	17.1%	2.6%	3.6%	.355	3.47	16.3%	10.6%	117	-0.48	3.42	214	47
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2028 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP	3.79	21.5%	3.9%	3.7%	.270	4.50	16.9%	11.2%	230	+0.71	3.79	360	47
Leo Medrano R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	32	SP	3.74	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.60	3.74	222	45
Jose Oyervides R 2027 · 2.98 FIP	33	SP	2.98	19.1%	6.2%	1.3%	.333	4.17	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.19	2.98	407	45
Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 3.31 FIP	32	SP	3.31	24.6%	5.6%	2.9%	.300	5.54	21.8%	14.9%	47	+2.23	2.75	902	44
Michael Pineda R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	32	SP	4.05	19.2%	4.4%	3.7%	.291	5.34	14.5%	10.2%	72	+1.29	2.00	786	44
Dustin Crenshaw R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	30	SP	3.92	15.5%	1.9%	3.4%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	238	44
Tim Adleman R 2025 · 4.57 FIP	31	SP	4.57	22.8%	7.8%	4.4%	.266	4.61	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.04	3.61	605	44
Manuel Flores R 2025 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	15.8%	4.7%	2.1%	.305	4.08	17.1%	9.7%	122	+0.53	3.55	515	44
Justin Verlander R 2026 · 3.51 FIP	32	SP	3.51	21.1%	5.8%	2.7%	.265	3.18	29.6%	23.4%	648	-0.33	2.24	1,584	43
Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	32	SP	4.60	17.8%	6.1%	4.1%	.245	4.31	20.0%	12.4%	194	-0.29	2.85	1,148	43
Hector Ambriz R 2026 · 3.44 FIP	32	SP	3.44	16.0%	6.4%	1.6%	.273	6.28	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.84	3.44	155	43
Ricky Nolasco R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	32	SP	3.21	20.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.382	4.52	17.9%	11.7%	379	+1.31	3.21	425	43
Jason Hammel R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	32	SP	3.43	24.2%	5.1%	3.2%	.282	4.26	18.4%	11.9%	474	+0.83	3.43	645	43
Jake Peavy R 2028 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	17.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.278	4.36	19.6%	12.9%	119	+0.27	4.09	262	42
Josh Tomlin R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	18.6%	2.4%	4.0%	.326	5.09	16.6%	13.6%	189	+1.09	3.72	641	42
Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.94 FIP	32	SP	4.94	15.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.316	4.56	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.38	4.56	143	42
Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	32	SP	4.21	16.4%	5.5%	3.3%	.269	3.97	17.3%	13.0%	575	-0.24	3.06	1,275	42

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3	96	20.5%	4.2%	1.45	4.19
Paolo Espino ('22)	3	82	19.4%	5.6%	1.82	4.70
Wei-Yin Chen ('19)	5	110	19.5%	6.0%	1.43	4.49
Eli Morgan ('24)	4	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Scott Feldman ('17)	3	99	16.7%	6.4%	1.33	4.25
Austin Pruitt ('23)	5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Sam Gaviglio ('19)	3	98	19.3%	6.9%	1.69	4.84