Zach Eflin — OGILVIE

Zach Eflin P Baltimore Orioles

Age 32 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.7 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION4 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA3.95

FIP4.06

K%21.4%

BB%3.7%

K-BB%17.8%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6565

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1592.0

Whiff%

p1620.5%

p1016.2%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

CH+0.5 (26%)

CT (15%)

SI (19%)

CU (21%)

FB-0.6 (28%)

SL-1.3 (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.105 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$0.7M
Totals		$0.8M		$0.1M	-$0.7M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$10.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$25.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	MUTUAL OPT	$10.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	MUTUAL OPT	$15.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	23	23	132	541	68	21	12	100%	5.7	10.2%	4.3%	5.9%	2.6%	3.69	4.21	—
2015	21	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	23	23	132	541	68	21	12	100%	5.7	12.6%	3.9%	8.7%	2.2%	3.69	3.73	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	132	535	86	27	14	100%	6.0	14.8%	5.1%	9.7%	2.5%	4.17	3.89	+1.6
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	132	535	86	27	14	100%	6.0	16.1%	5.0%	11.0%	2.6%	4.17	3.79	+1.8
2017	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	21	120	514	85	27	19	95%	5.4	14.6%	5.9%	8.7%	3.8%	5.04	4.73	+0.2
2017	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	22	21	120	514	85	27	19	95%	5.4	16.5%	5.3%	11.3%	3.7%	5.04	4.42	+0.7
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	148	633	138	38	16	100%	5.3	21.5%	6.0%	15.5%	2.4%	4.32	3.34	+2.8
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	148	633	138	38	16	100%	5.3	21.8%	6.0%	15.8%	2.5%	4.32	3.41	+2.7
2019	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	28	163	705	129	43	28	88%	5.1	18.3%	6.1%	12.2%	3.7%	4.13	4.36	+1.0
2019	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	28	163	705	129	43	28	88%	5.1	18.3%	6.1%	12.2%	4.0%	4.13	4.54	+0.7
2020	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	11	10	59	245	70	15	8	91%	5.4	28.6%	6.1%	22.4%	3.0%	3.97	3.13	+1.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	11	10	59	245	70	15	8	91%	5.4	28.6%	6.1%	22.4%	3.3%	3.97	3.25	+1.2
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	108	450	102	14	15	100%	5.7	22.4%	3.2%	19.2%	3.2%	4.08	3.35	+2.1
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	108	450	102	14	15	100%	5.7	22.7%	3.1%	19.6%	3.3%	4.08	3.41	+2.0
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	78	320	68	14	9	67%	3.7	20.8%	4.5%	16.3%	2.4%	4.06	3.22	+1.6
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	14	78	320	68	14	9	67%	3.7	21.2%	4.4%	16.9%	2.8%	4.06	3.40	+1.4
2023	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	178	703	186	23	19	100%	5.7	26.5%	3.3%	23.2%	2.8%	3.50	2.81	+4.7
2023	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	178	703	186	23	19	100%	5.7	26.5%	3.3%	23.2%	2.8%	3.50	2.81	+4.7
2023	29	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	178	703	186	23	19	100%	5.7	26.5%	3.3%	23.2%	2.7%	3.50	2.78	+4.8
2024	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	165	684	134	24	22	100%	5.9	19.6%	3.5%	16.1%	3.2%	3.59	3.67	+2.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	165	684	134	24	22	100%	5.9	19.6%	3.5%	16.1%	3.2%	3.59	3.67	+2.5
2024	30	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	165	684	134	24	22	100%	5.9	19.6%	3.5%	16.1%	3.2%	3.59	3.64	+2.5
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	17	83	361	61	17	19	100%	4.9	16.2%	4.2%	12.0%	5.6%	5.29	5.33	-0.4
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	17	83	361	61	17	19	100%	4.9	16.2%	4.2%	12.0%	5.6%	5.29	5.33	-0.4
2025	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	17	83	361	61	17	19	100%	4.9	16.9%	4.7%	12.2%	5.3%	5.29	5.21	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			201	189	1077	4518	929	209	163	94%	5.4	20.6%	4.6%	15.9%	3.6%	4.28	3.92	+12.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	1	1	4	17	7	2	1	100%	3.7	—	—	—	—	2.45	—	—
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	1	1	4	17	7	2	1	100%	3.7	—	—	—	—	2.45	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	MLB RAW	BAL	1	1	4	17	7	2	1	100%	3.7	41.2%	11.8%	29.4%	5.9%	2.45	4.34	—
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	BAL	1	1	4	17	7	2	1	100%	3.7	41.2%	11.8%	29.4%	5.9%	2.45	4.34	—
ROS	32	MLB MLE	BAL	1	1	2	8	2	0	0	100%	2.0	21.4%	3.7%	17.8%	3.5%	3.95	4.06	+0.0
ROS	32	MLB CTX	BAL	1	1	2	8	2	0	0	100%	2.0	21.4%	3.7%	17.8%	3.7%	4.04	4.15	+0.0
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	6	25	9	2	1	—	—	34.6%	9.1%	25.6%	5.1%	2.98	1.43	+0.2
FULL	32	MLB A+C	BAL	—	—	6	24	9	2	1	—	—	36.8%	9.7%	27.2%	5.5%	3.01	4.22	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	109	459	94	19	17	100%	6.0	20.6%	4.1%	16.5%	3.8%	4.19	4.34	+0.7
2028	34	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	99	417	82	19	17	100%	6.2	19.7%	4.6%	15.1%	4.1%	4.46	4.65	+0.3
2027	33	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	109	460	95	19	18	100%	6.1	20.6%	4.1%	16.5%	4.0%	4.28	4.43	+0.7
2028	34	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	99	418	82	19	18	100%	6.2	19.7%	4.6%	15.1%	4.3%	4.56	4.75	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		236	224	1287	5402	1107	248	199	95%	5.5	20.5%	4.6%	15.9%	3.7%	4.30	3.97	+14.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	840	172	39	31	95%	5.5	20.5%	4.6%	15.9%	3.7%	4.30	3.97	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		255	242	1369	5708	1097	270	181	95%	5.4	19.2%	4.7%	14.5%	3.2%	4.10	3.81	+13.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	35	200	834	160	39	26	95%	5.4	19.2%	4.7%	14.5%	3.2%	4.10	3.81	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Eflin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.06	21.4%	3.7%	3.5%	—	4.49	20.2%	15.8%	207	+0.43	—	—	—
Miles Mikolas R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	32	SP	4.27	16.4%	5.5%	3.4%	.269	4.09	17.3%	13.0%	575	-0.18	3.13	1,296	61
Johnny Cueto R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	32	SP	4.59	17.8%	6.1%	4.0%	.245	4.30	20.0%	12.4%	194	-0.29	2.85	1,148	60
Jordan Zimmermann R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	32	SP	4.89	20.0%	4.7%	5.3%	.286	4.47	16.3%	11.7%	112	-0.42	3.57	731	60
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	58
Josh Tomlin R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	32	SP	3.99	18.6%	2.4%	3.9%	.326	5.09	16.6%	13.6%	189	+1.10	3.72	641	58
Michael Pineda R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	32	SP	4.06	19.2%	4.4%	3.7%	.291	5.24	14.5%	10.2%	72	+1.18	2.00	786	57
Matt Shoemaker R 2019 · 3.80 FIP	32	SP	3.80	22.2%	8.3%	2.8%	.181	5.06	18.8%	11.1%	159	+1.26	3.17	592	57
Alex Cobb R 2020 · 4.44 FIP	32	SP	4.44	16.8%	8.0%	3.2%	.272	3.19	22.8%	16.0%	394	-1.25	2.74	844	54
Kyle Gibson R 2020 · 4.73 FIP	32	SP	4.73	19.3%	9.6%	3.7%	.302	3.80	20.1%	12.8%	542	-0.93	3.56	1,689	54
Kenta Maeda R 2020 · 2.87 FIP	32	SP	2.87	32.3%	4.0%	3.6%	.208	3.75	26.1%	19.3%	224	+0.88	2.87	1,092	54
Merrill Kelly R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	19.5%	5.7%	3.3%	.297	3.80	23.4%	15.3%	452	-0.20	3.60	1,160	52
Mike Fiers R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	32	SP	5.12	21.8%	9.2%	4.9%	.290	4.88	17.5%	11.5%	416	-0.24	3.86	918	52
Jeremy Hellickson R 2019 · 4.93 FIP	32	SP	4.93	17.8%	8.5%	4.1%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	646	51
Esmil Rogers R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	31	SP	2.86	21.7%	3.8%	2.0%	.336	5.64	12.5%	3.8%	91	+2.78	2.86	199	51
Miguel González R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	32	SP	3.72	17.8%	5.8%	2.5%	.295	4.71	14.1%	6.3%	168	+0.99	3.72	469	51
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	533	50
Zack Greinke R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	20.1%	5.7%	3.4%	.292	3.31	24.5%	19.9%	619	-0.69	2.56	1,517	49
Tanner Roark R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	21.9%	6.9%	4.3%	.313	4.76	19.6%	9.9%	94	+0.29	3.13	942	48
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	48
Félix Hernández R 2018 · 4.87 FIP	32	SP	4.87	18.2%	8.6%	4.0%	.278	5.54	17.5%	9.8%	72	+0.67	3.60	682	48

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	105	20.6%	4.1%	1.46	4.19
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
John Means ('24)	1.9	78	20.6%	4.9%	1.64	3.60
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Braxton Garrett ('24)	1.6	80	23.1%	5.7%	1.04	3.98
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47