Zach Eflin

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 33 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.9 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MLBBAL	28	28	165	3.59	3.64	19.6%	3.5%	3.5
2025	31	MIX4 levels	17	17	83	5.29	5.21	16.9%	4.7%	0.2	K 16.2% · BB 4.2% · FIP 5.33
2026	32	MLBBAL	1	1	4	2.45	4.46	41.2%	11.8%	0.0
2027PROJ	33	MLBBAL	12	12	71	4.24	4.35	18.5%	3.8%	0.9
2028PROJ	34	MLBBAL	14	14	85	4.59	4.76	17.6%	4.3%	0.7
2029PROJ	35	MLBBAL	10	10	60	4.89	5.09	16.7%	4.9%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service10.105First FA2028Options4

2027Ext / FA-deal$10M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs37

FB Velo15

K%10

CompsJorge Martinez (age 32) · Koji Uehara (age 34) · Diego Moreno (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.24

FIP4.35

K%18.5%

BB%3.8%

K-BB%14.7%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1592.0

Whiff%

p1620.5%

p1016.2%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 10.105 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+0.9	$4M	-$6M
Totals		$10M		$4M	-$6M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$10.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$25.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	MUTUAL OPT	$10.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	MUTUAL OPT	$15.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	23	23	132	541	68	21	12	100%	5.7	10.2%	4.3%	5.9%	2.6%	3.69	4.21	—
2015	21	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	23	23	132	541	68	21	12	100%	5.7	12.6%	3.9%	8.7%	2.2%	3.69	3.73	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	132	535	86	27	14	100%	6.0	14.8%	5.1%	9.7%	2.5%	4.17	3.89	+2.4
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	132	535	86	27	14	100%	6.0	16.1%	5.0%	11.0%	2.6%	4.17	3.79	+2.6
2017	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	21	120	514	85	27	19	95%	5.4	14.6%	5.9%	8.7%	3.8%	5.04	4.73	+0.9
2017	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	22	21	120	514	85	27	19	95%	5.4	16.5%	5.3%	11.3%	3.7%	5.04	4.42	+1.4
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	148	633	138	38	16	100%	5.3	21.5%	6.0%	15.5%	2.4%	4.32	3.34	+3.7
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	148	633	138	38	16	100%	5.3	21.8%	6.0%	15.8%	2.5%	4.32	3.41	+3.6
2019	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	32	28	163	705	129	43	28	88%	5.1	18.3%	6.1%	12.2%	3.7%	4.13	4.36	+2.0
2019	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	32	28	163	705	129	43	28	88%	5.1	18.3%	6.1%	12.2%	4.0%	4.13	4.54	+1.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	11	10	59	245	70	15	8	91%	5.4	28.6%	6.1%	22.4%	3.0%	3.97	3.13	+1.7
2020	26	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	11	10	59	245	70	15	8	91%	5.4	28.6%	6.1%	22.4%	3.3%	3.97	3.25	+1.6
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	108	450	102	14	15	100%	5.7	22.4%	3.2%	19.2%	3.2%	4.08	3.35	+2.7
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	108	450	102	14	15	100%	5.7	22.7%	3.1%	19.6%	3.3%	4.08	3.41	+2.6
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	78	320	68	14	9	67%	3.7	20.8%	4.5%	16.3%	2.4%	4.06	3.22	+2.1
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	14	78	320	68	14	9	67%	3.7	21.2%	4.4%	16.9%	2.8%	4.06	3.40	+1.9
2023	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	178	703	186	23	19	100%	5.7	26.5%	3.3%	23.2%	2.8%	3.50	2.81	+5.9
2023	29	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	178	703	186	23	19	100%	5.7	26.5%	3.3%	23.2%	2.7%	3.50	2.78	+5.9
2024	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	165	684	134	24	22	100%	5.9	19.6%	3.5%	16.1%	3.2%	3.59	3.67	+3.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	165	684	134	24	22	100%	5.9	19.6%	3.5%	16.1%	3.2%	3.59	3.67	+3.5
2024	30	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	165	684	134	24	22	100%	5.9	19.6%	3.5%	16.1%	3.2%	3.59	3.64	+3.5
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	17	83	361	61	17	19	100%	4.9	16.2%	4.2%	12.0%	5.6%	5.29	5.33	+0.1
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	17	83	361	61	17	19	100%	4.9	16.2%	4.2%	12.0%	5.6%	5.29	5.33	+0.1
2025	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	17	83	361	61	17	19	100%	4.9	16.9%	4.7%	12.2%	5.3%	5.29	5.21	+0.2
2026	32	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	1	1	4	17	7	2	1	100%	3.7	41.2%	11.8%	29.4%	5.9%	2.45	4.34	+0.0
2026	32	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	1	1	4	17	7	2	1	100%	3.7	41.2%	11.8%	29.4%	5.9%	2.45	4.34	+0.0
2026	32	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	1	1	4	17	7	2	1	100%	3.7	41.2%	11.8%	29.4%	5.9%	2.45	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			201	189	1077	4518	929	209	163	94%	5.4	20.6%	4.6%	15.9%	3.6%	4.28	3.92	+19.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	BAL	12	12	71	300	56	12	11	100%	5.9	18.5%	3.8%	14.7%	3.6%	4.24	4.35	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	85	361	64	16	14	100%	6.1	17.6%	4.3%	13.3%	3.9%	4.49	4.66	+0.7
2029	35	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	60	252	42	12	11	100%	6.0	16.7%	4.9%	11.8%	4.2%	4.79	4.99	+0.3
2028	34	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	85	359	63	16	14	100%	6.1	17.6%	4.3%	13.3%	4.0%	4.59	4.76	+0.7
2029	35	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	60	253	42	12	11	100%	6.0	16.7%	4.9%	11.8%	4.4%	4.89	5.09	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		225	213	1222	5130	1035	237	189	95%	5.4	20.2%	4.6%	15.5%	3.7%	4.33	4.00	+20.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	839	169	39	31	95%	5.4	20.2%	4.6%	15.5%	3.7%	4.33	4.00	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		255	242	1369	5708	1097	270	181	95%	5.4	19.2%	4.7%	14.5%	3.2%	4.10	3.81	+20.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	35	200	834	160	39	26	95%	5.4	19.2%	4.7%	14.5%	3.2%	4.10	3.81	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 20 IPFIP 2.35 → 2.57 (+0.22)K% 17.6% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.65%	—	×0.880	15.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.050	6.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.954	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 2.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 43 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.58 (+0.30)K% 20.0% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.880	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×1.050	8.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.58%	÷1.043	×1.100	1.67%

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKGCL Phillies · 7 IPFIP 1.22 → 1.82 (+0.60)K% 22.2% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.680	15.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.22 → 1.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 68 IPFIP 2.28 → 2.59 (+0.31)K% 20.9% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.91%	—	×0.880	18.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.18%	—	×1.050	4.39%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷0.942	×1.100	0.89%

Result: FIP 2.28 → 2.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAReading Fightin Phils · 132 IPFIP 3.75 → 4.21 (+0.46)K% 12.6% → 10.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.57%	—	×0.810	10.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.88%	—	×1.100	4.27%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.021	×1.200	2.61%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.75 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Eflin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.80	17.2%	12.7%	145	+0.45	—	—	—
Jorge Martinez R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	32	SP	3.70	17.1%	2.6%	3.1%	.355	3.71	16.3%	10.6%	117	+0.01	3.53	214	61
Koji Uehara R 2009 · 3.52 FIP	34	SP	3.52	17.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.300	2.55	33.5%	30.6%	145	-0.97	1.28	481	58
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	53
Hector Ambriz R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	32	SP	3.63	16.0%	6.4%	2.0%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.77	2.24	259	52
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	52
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	50
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	49
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	49
Kenta Maeda R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	24.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.307	4.26	23.6%	17.1%	230	+0.47	2.87	1,092	48
Logan Duran R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	33	SP	3.42	15.8%	10.0%	0.7%	.287	3.77	15.3%	6.4%	95	+0.35	3.42	187	47
Alfredo Figaro R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	32	SP-	3.75	10.2%	5.0%	1.6%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	143	45
Josh Lindblom R 2020 · 3.50 FIP	33	SP	3.50	27.2%	8.4%	3.0%	.308	4.46	21.7%	13.8%	255	+0.96	1.83	480	44
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	44
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	43
Armando Galarraga R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	33	SP	3.92	10.6%	7.3%	1.4%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	584	43
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	43
Mitch Atkins R 2017 · 4.77 FIP	31	SP	4.77	14.3%	8.1%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	215	43
Guillermo Moscoso R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	14.5%	6.9%	1.8%	.270	4.64	14.9%	7.5%	176	+0.87	3.56	486	42
Eder Llamas R 2017 · 3.23 FIP	31	SP	3.23	11.3%	6.7%	0.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	171	42
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	193	42

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.5	100	20.1%	4.8%	1.41	4.31
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Phil Hughes ('18)	6.5	108	18.9%	5.7%	1.33	4.52
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Lee Stange ('61-'70, 9 WAR*)	6.1	135	17.8%*	6.6%*	1.36*	4.14*
Atlee Hammaker ('81-'95, 9 WAR*)	5.4	120	18.1%*	6.4%*	1.18*	4.37*
Anthony DeSclafani ('25)	4.9	109	20.9%	6.4%	1.34	4.24