Zach Eflin
P
Baltimore Orioles
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 32
RHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.24
FIP4.41
xFIP1.71
SIERA2.44
K%19.7%
BB%4.5%
K-BB%15.3%
IP101
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†4545
FB Velo
p1592.0
Whiff%
p1620.5%
K%
p1016.2%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
CH+0.5 (26%)
CT (15%)
SI (19%)
CU (21%)
FB-0.6 (28%)
SL-1.3 (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 23 | 23 | 132 | 541 | 68 | 21 | 12 | 10.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 3.69 | 4.22 | +1.6 |
| 2016 | 22 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 22 | 22 | 132 | 535 | 86 | 27 | 14 | 14.8% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 3.97 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 22 | 21 | 120 | 514 | 85 | 27 | 19 | 14.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 5.04 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 28 | 28 | 148 | 633 | 138 | 38 | 16 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 4.32 | 3.33 | +3.3 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 32 | 28 | 163 | 705 | 129 | 43 | 28 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 4.13 | 4.18 | +2.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 10 | 59 | 245 | 70 | 15 | 8 | 28.6% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 3.05 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 19 | 19 | 108 | 450 | 102 | 14 | 15 | 22.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.08 | 3.43 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 21 | 14 | 78 | 320 | 68 | 14 | 9 | 20.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 4.06 | 3.28 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 31 | 31 | 178 | 703 | 186 | 23 | 19 | 26.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.50 | 2.69 | +5.3 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 28 | 28 | 165 | 684 | 134 | 24 | 22 | 19.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.59 | 3.58 | +3.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 17 | 17 | 83 | 361 | 61 | 17 | 19 | 16.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.29 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 1 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | PHI | 27 | — | 27 | 112 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 18.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.17 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 30 | 129 | 28 | 7 | 5 | 21.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.96 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 74 | 19 | 15 | 18.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.44 | 4.62 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 17 | 17 | 92 | 386 | 67 | 19 | 15 | 17.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.63 | 4.75 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 61 | 18 | 15 | 16.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.80 | 4.91 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 15 | 15 | 81 | 340 | 54 | 18 | 14 | 15.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.96 | 5.07 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 255 | 242 | 1369 | 5708 | 1097 | 270 | 174 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 3.75 | +24.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 35 | 200 | 834 | 160 | 39 | 25 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Eflin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 18.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | — | 4.75 | 17.5% | 12.6% | 274 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Hector Navarro R 2029 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 51 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.54 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .338 | 3.57 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | +0.03 | 2.65 | 283 | 51 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.03 | 17.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 241 | -0.68 | 1.83 | 407 | 51 |
| Alex Wilson R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.07 | 19.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 326 | 51 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 51 |
| Pat Neshek R 2028 · 3.63 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.63 | 22.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | .268 | 2.45 | 24.6% | 21.9% | 134 | -1.18 | 1.56 | 206 | 50 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.40 | 21.3% | 6.1% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.09 | 19.4% | 14.1% | 92 | +0.69 | 2.65 | 288 | 50 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 50 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 50 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 50 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.34 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.67 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.33 | 2.57 | 251 | 49 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 49 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.57 | 20.5% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 137 | 49 |
| Pedro Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.12 | 14.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 145 | 49 |
| Dan Otero R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.52 | 15.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | .295 | 4.48 | 15.7% | 14.3% | 88 | +0.96 | 2.10 | 293 | 49 |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 25.2% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .287 | 4.40 | 14.7% | 8.6% | 97 | +0.70 | 3.57 | 290 | 49 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 49 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 49 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2024 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 49 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.46 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .224 | 7.56 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +4.10 | 1.85 | 238 | 49 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.