Josiah Gray
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 209 lbs
AAA
peak 0.9 · 2027
ERA4.33
FIP4.61
xFIP5.53
SIERA5.01
K%21.9%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.7%
IP157
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p5626.2%
K%
p3820.5%
xwOBA vs
p240.342
SI (10%)
CU (11%)
SL-0.9 (23%)
FB-1.4 (34%)
CT-1.4 (25%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Reds | 12 | 12 | 52 | 207 | 59 | 17 | 1 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 2.58 | 3.13 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 21 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 26 | 25 | 130 | 516 | 147 | 31 | 3 | 22.1% | 6.8% | 0.8% | 2.28 | 2.51 | +4.1 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 18 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 98 | 32 | 22 | 26.2% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.00 | 5.55 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 28 | 28 | 149 | 649 | 154 | 65 | 38 | 23.7% | 10.0% | 5.6% | 5.02 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 30 | 30 | 159 | 698 | 143 | 79 | 22 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 3.91 | 4.57 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 7 | 7 | 29 | 133 | 23 | 10 | 6 | — | — | — | 8.28 | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 3 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 133 | 562 | 122 | 58 | 18 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 107 | 53 | 17 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.81 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 108 | 455 | 93 | 48 | 15 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 96 | 406 | 81 | 43 | 14 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.03 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 85 | 361 | 69 | 39 | 13 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.15 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 65 | 33 | 11 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 5.04 | 5.02 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 55 | 29 | 10 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 5.12 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 46 | 26 | 9 | 19.0% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 5.25 | 5.34 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 124 | 121 | 611 | 2593 | 575 | 248 | 94 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.05 | 4.42 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 40 | 200 | 848 | 188 | 81 | 31 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.05 | 4.42 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josiah Gray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 3.2% | — | 4.80 | 21.1% | 10.7% | 361 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 78 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 77 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 77 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 76 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 75 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 75 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 75 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 75 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 74 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 74 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .327 | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.30 | 2.39 | 676 | 74 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 74 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.61 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | .350 | 5.75 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 74 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 73 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 73 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 283 | 73 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 2.8% | .307 | 6.39 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.43 | 2.85 | 299 | 73 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.