Josiah Gray
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 209 lbs
AAA
peak 0.8 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION157 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.48
FIP4.72
xFIP5.53
SIERA5.01
K%21.0%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%10.7%
IP157
K†5050
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
SI (10%)
CU (11%)
SL-0.9 (23%)
FB-1.4 (34%)
CT-1.4 (25%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Reds | 12 | 12 | 52 | 207 | 59 | 17 | 1 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 0.7% | 2.58 | 3.13 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 21 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 26 | 25 | 130 | 516 | 147 | 31 | 3 | 22.1% | 6.8% | 0.8% | 2.28 | 2.53 | +4.4 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 18 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 98 | 32 | 22 | 26.2% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 5.00 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 28 | 28 | 149 | 649 | 154 | 65 | 38 | 23.7% | 10.0% | 5.9% | 5.02 | 5.58 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 30 | 30 | 159 | 698 | 143 | 79 | 22 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 3.91 | 4.53 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 7 | 7 | 29 | 133 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 17.3% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 8.28 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 3 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 19.2% | 19.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.91 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 87 | 43 | 13 | 21.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 140 | 590 | 120 | 62 | 19 | 20.4% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.72 | 4.88 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 131 | 555 | 109 | 60 | 19 | 19.7% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 5.09 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 122 | 517 | 98 | 58 | 19 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 5.17 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 87 | 55 | 19 | 18.1% | 11.5% | 4.0% | 5.41 | 5.58 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 104 | 439 | 76 | 53 | 19 | 17.3% | 12.0% | 4.2% | 5.68 | 5.86 | -0.6 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 95 | 399 | 65 | 50 | 18 | 16.4% | 12.5% | 4.5% | 5.97 | 6.16 | -1.0 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 55 | 47 | 17 | 15.4% | 13.0% | 4.9% | 6.29 | 6.50 | -1.4 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 52 | 41 | 17 | 16.4% | 12.8% | 5.2% | 6.47 | 6.59 | -1.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 124 | 121 | 611 | 2593 | 575 | 248 | 94 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.05 | 4.42 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 40 | 200 | 848 | 188 | 81 | 31 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.05 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josiah Gray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 21.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | — | 5.09 | 19.7% | 8.9% | 394 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 78 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 77 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 75 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 75 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.23 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 556 | 74 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.98 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 328 | 74 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.02 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.58 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.56 | 4.02 | 203 | 74 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.84 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 3.81 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.03 | 3.57 | 224 | 73 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 73 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 73 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 2.0% | .278 | 6.71 | 16.4% | 2.4% | 16 | +2.71 | 4.00 | 464 | 73 |
| Taylor Cole R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.77 | 25.4% | 10.4% | 2.7% | .291 | 3.46 | 22.0% | 13.9% | 72 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 433 | 72 |
| Taylor Jungmann R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 435 | 72 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 72 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 71 |
| Iván Nova R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.43 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .283 | 4.19 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 510 | -0.24 | 3.90 | 810 | 71 |
| Tim Atherton R 2023 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.73 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 101 | 71 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.77 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 4.9% | .298 | 4.76 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 249 | -1.01 | 2.90 | 806 | 71 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.