Michael Fulmer
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 221 lbs
AAA
peak 1.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 163 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 92
ERA4.09
FIP3.99
K%26.9%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%16.3%
ROS IP163
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 199 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CT+1.1 (43%)
FB+0.6 (33%)
SL (4%)
SI (10%)
CU (9%)
CH-1.4 (10%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 125 | 498 | 124 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 12.7% | 1.5% | 2.23 | 3.13 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 125 | 498 | 124 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.9% | 6.0% | 18.9% | 1.6% | 2.23 | 2.67 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 174 | 716 | 152 | 46 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 6.5% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 3.15 | 3.81 | +3.2 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 174 | 716 | 152 | 46 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.2% | 6.4% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 3.15 | 3.56 | +3.7 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 25 | 25 | 165 | 676 | 114 | 38 | 13 | 100% | 6.6 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 3.83 | 3.54 | +3.6 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 25 | 25 | 165 | 676 | 114 | 38 | 13 | 100% | 6.6 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 11.2% | 1.9% | 3.83 | 3.43 | +3.8 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 138 | 577 | 121 | 45 | 19 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 138 | 577 | 121 | 45 | 19 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.0% | 7.8% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.11 | +2.1 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 10 | 10 | 28 | 136 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 2.8 | 14.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.78 | 6.50 | -0.6 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 10 | 10 | 28 | 136 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 2.8 | 14.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.78 | 6.71 | -0.7 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 5 | 72 | 305 | 75 | 20 | 7 | 9% | 1.3 | 24.6% | 6.1% | 18.5% | 2.6% | 2.89 | 3.21 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 5 | 72 | 305 | 75 | 20 | 7 | 9% | 1.3 | 24.6% | 6.6% | 18.0% | 2.3% | 2.89 | 3.11 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 67 | 0 | 64 | 276 | 61 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 1.4% | 3.39 | 3.03 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 67 | 0 | 64 | 276 | 61 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 1.4% | 3.39 | 3.04 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 58 | 1 | 57 | 237 | 65 | 28 | 7 | 2% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 58 | 1 | 57 | 237 | 65 | 28 | 7 | 2% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 4 | 72 | 300 | 89 | 30 | 8 | 8% | 1.5 | 27.3% | 10.6% | 16.7% | 2.0% | 3.50 | 3.22 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 4 | 72 | 300 | 89 | 30 | 8 | 8% | 1.5 | 29.7% | 10.0% | 19.7% | 2.7% | 3.50 | 3.32 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 32 | 0 | 36 | 159 | 48 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 0.7% | 3.47 | 2.91 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | SF | 155 | 0 | 163 | 687 | 185 | 73 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 10.6% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 3.99 | +2.7 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | SF | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 10.6% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 3.99 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | SF | — | — | 199 | 846 | 233 | 93 | 19 | — | — | 27.5% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 2.3% | 3.98 | 3.79 | +3.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | SF | — | — | 16 | 69 | 18 | 7 | 2 | — | — | 26.9% | 10.6% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 3.61 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SF | 141 | 0 | 148 | 625 | 163 | 69 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 11.1% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.29 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SF | 127 | 0 | 133 | 561 | 141 | 65 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.63 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | SF | 112 | 0 | 118 | 497 | 119 | 61 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 5.00 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SF | 141 | 0 | 148 | 625 | 162 | 69 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 11.1% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.29 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SF | 127 | 0 | 133 | 562 | 141 | 65 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.63 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | SF | 112 | 0 | 118 | 498 | 120 | 61 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 5.00 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 660 | 90 | 1095 | 4602 | 1019 | 408 | 132 | 14% | 1.7 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 3.92 | +18.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 121 | 16 | 200 | 841 | 186 | 75 | 24 | 14% | 1.7 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 371 | 122 | 931 | 3880 | 821 | 299 | 99 | 33% | 2.5 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 3.63 | 3.69 | +18.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 26 | 200 | 834 | 176 | 64 | 21 | 33% | 2.5 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 3.63 | 3.69 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Fulmer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.99 | 26.9% | 10.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.61 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 399 | +0.62 | — | — | — |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.15 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 1.7% | .358 | 4.13 | 13.7% | 6.9% | 250 | +0.98 | 3.15 | 352 | 74 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 69 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 66 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2025 · 3.35 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.35 | 24.3% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 129 | 66 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 66 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 65 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 64 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.44 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .356 | 4.68 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.24 | 2.73 | 410 | 64 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 64 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 63 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 63 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 316 | 63 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 62 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 62 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 11.3% | 2.1% | .304 | 3.43 | 22.8% | 12.6% | 174 | -0.09 | 3.08 | 349 | 61 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.56 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .255 | 4.23 | 24.1% | 13.8% | 97 | +0.67 | 3.41 | 212 | 61 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 61 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.06 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 6.10 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +2.04 | 2.54 | 157 | 61 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.41 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.36 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 144 | 61 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.03 | 31.1% | 13.1% | 1.6% | .275 | 2.97 | 28.4% | 19.5% | 146 | -0.06 | 1.99 | 488 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 140 | 25.6% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 4.35 |
| Danny Salazar ('17) | 3 | 142 | 28.1% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 3.79 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |