Michael Fulmer — OGILVIE

Michael Fulmer P Salt Lake Bees

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 221 lbs AAA peak 1.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10394vR 86

ERA3.75

FIP3.65

K%25.4%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%15.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†6060

CT+1.1 (43%)

FB+0.6 (33%)

SL (4%)

SI (10%)

CU (9%)

CH-1.4 (10%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	125	498	124	30	8	100%	5.7	19.7%	7.0%	12.7%	1.6%	2.23	3.21	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	125	498	124	30	8	100%	5.7	24.9%	6.0%	18.9%	1.6%	2.23	2.67	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	174	716	152	46	19	100%	6.0	20.9%	6.5%	14.4%	2.8%	3.15	3.72	+2.5
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	174	716	152	46	19	100%	6.0	21.2%	6.4%	14.8%	2.7%	3.15	3.56	+2.8
2017	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	25	25	165	676	114	38	13	100%	6.6	16.9%	5.6%	11.2%	2.0%	3.83	3.49	+2.9
2017	24	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	25	25	165	676	114	38	13	100%	6.6	16.9%	5.6%	11.2%	1.9%	3.83	3.43	+3.0
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	138	577	121	45	19	100%	5.3	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	3.6%	4.49	4.41	+0.8
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	138	577	121	45	19	100%	5.3	21.0%	7.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.49	4.11	+1.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	10	10	28	136	20	12	8	100%	2.8	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	6.1%	8.78	6.35	-0.4
2020	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	10	10	28	136	20	12	8	100%	2.8	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	5.9%	8.78	6.71	-0.6
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	5	72	305	75	20	7	9%	1.3	24.6%	6.1%	18.5%	2.5%	2.89	3.14	+1.2
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	5	72	305	75	20	7	9%	1.3	24.6%	6.6%	18.0%	2.3%	2.89	3.11	+1.2
2022	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	67	0	64	276	61	22	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	1.4%	3.39	3.03	+1.2
2022	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	67	0	64	276	61	22	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	1.4%	3.39	3.04	+1.1
2023	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	58	1	57	237	65	28	7	2%	1.0	27.4%	11.8%	15.6%	3.1%	4.42	3.96	+0.4
2023	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	58	1	57	237	65	28	7	2%	1.0	27.4%	11.8%	15.6%	3.1%	4.42	3.96	+0.4
2023	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	58	1	57	237	65	28	7	2%	1.0	27.4%	11.8%	15.6%	3.0%	4.42	3.89	+0.4
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	4	72	300	89	30	8	8%	1.5	25.8%	9.1%	16.7%	2.3%	3.50	3.34	+1.0
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	4	72	300	89	30	8	8%	1.5	25.8%	9.1%	16.7%	2.3%	3.50	3.34	+1.0
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	4	72	300	89	30	8	8%	1.5	29.7%	10.0%	19.7%	2.7%	3.50	3.32	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			275	90	689	2892	589	210	76	33%	2.5	20.4%	7.3%	13.1%	2.6%	3.92	3.74	+6.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	48	0	53	224	63	25	2	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	0.6%	2.73	2.74	—
YTD	33	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	48	0	53	224	63	25	2	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	0.6%	2.73	2.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	AAA RAW	NYY	38	0	43	182	52	21	1	0%	1.1	28.6%	11.5%	17.0%	0.5%	2.93	2.45	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	NYY	10	0	10	42	11	4	1	0%	1.0	26.2%	9.5%	16.7%	2.4%	1.86	3.40	—
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	NYY	10	0	10	42	11	4	1	0%	1.0	26.2%	9.5%	16.7%	2.4%	1.86	3.40	—
ROS	33	MLB MLE	NYY	6	0	6	27	7	3	1	0%	1.1	25.4%	9.5%	15.9%	2.7%	3.75	3.65	+0.1
ROS	33	MLB CTX	NYY	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.5%	15.9%	2.7%	3.75	3.65	+0.1
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	59	251	70	28	3	—	—	27.8%	11.0%	16.9%	1.1%	2.84	2.84	+1.3
FULL	33	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	16	67	70	28	3	—	—	103.5%	40.8%	62.6%	4.0%	10.50	1.75	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	NYY	141	0	148	625	156	62	19	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	3.0%	4.21	4.29	+0.5
2028	35	MLB MLE	NYY	127	0	133	561	135	59	19	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.5%	13.5%	3.4%	4.46	4.63	-0.1
2027	34	MLB CTX	NYY	141	0	148	625	156	62	19	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.9%	15.0%	3.0%	4.21	4.29	+0.5
2028	35	MLB CTX	NYY	127	0	133	562	135	59	19	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.5%	13.5%	3.4%	4.46	4.63	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		549	90	977	4105	886	334	114	16%	1.8	21.6%	8.1%	13.5%	2.8%	4.03	3.84	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		112	18	200	841	181	68	23	16%	1.8	21.6%	8.1%	13.5%	2.8%	4.03	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		387	122	947	3945	827	297	98	32%	2.4	21.0%	7.5%	13.4%	2.5%	3.58	3.64	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	26	200	833	175	63	21	32%	2.4	21.0%	7.5%	13.4%	2.5%	3.58	3.64	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Fulmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.01	25.8%	9.4%	2.8%	—	4.45	24.5%	14.3%	281	+0.44	—	—	—
Tim Dillard R 2016 · 3.13 FIP	33	SU	3.13	22.6%	8.2%	1.7%	.358	4.14	13.7%	6.9%	250	+1.01	3.13	352	77
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	71
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	70
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	69
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	68
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	68
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	68
Dustin Molleken R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	32	SU	3.38	24.3%	12.4%	1.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	129	67
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	65
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	5.01	20.8%	10.0%	88	+1.97	2.79	239	65
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	65
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	65
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	65
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	64
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.7%	10.4%	2.0%	.255	4.41	24.1%	13.8%	97	+0.80	3.34	212	64
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	64
Nate Jones R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	32	SU	4.09	23.4%	10.9%	2.9%	.279	5.85	21.4%	13.8%	38	+1.76	2.57	157	64
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	63
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	63
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	148	25.0%	9.9%	1.17	4.25
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68