Michael Fulmer

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 34 RHP 6'2" / 221 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	30	MLBCHC	58	1	57	4.42	3.89	27.4%	11.8%	0.4
2025	32	MIX2 levels	48	4	72	3.50	3.32	29.7%	10.0%	1.1	K 26.7% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.26
2026	33	MIX2 levels	53	0	57	3.02	2.80	28.8%	11.5%	1.2	K 25.8% · BB 10.7% · FIP 2.94
2027PROJ	34	MLBNYY	147	0	154	3.96	3.89	26.1%	10.0%	1.2
2028PROJ	35	MLBNYY	110	0	116	4.12	4.22	25.1%	10.6%	0.5
2029PROJ	36	MLBNYY	85	0	89	4.40	4.59	24.1%	11.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs63

FB Velo30

Form3.29 ERA (proj 3.96) · K 29.5% (proj 26.1%) · BB 13.1% (proj 10.0%) · last 90d · 14 IP through Oct 27

CompsFernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 34) · Dustin Molleken (age 32) · Neil Wagner (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.96

FIP3.89

K%26.1%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%16.1%

Proj IP154

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p9036.7%

p9029.5%

xwOBA vs

p630.299

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	125	498	124	30	8	100%	5.7	19.7%	7.0%	12.7%	1.6%	2.23	3.21	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	125	498	124	30	8	100%	5.7	24.9%	6.0%	18.9%	1.6%	2.23	2.67	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	174	716	152	46	19	100%	6.0	20.9%	6.5%	14.4%	2.8%	3.15	3.72	+3.6
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	174	716	152	46	19	100%	6.0	21.2%	6.4%	14.8%	2.7%	3.15	3.56	+3.9
2017	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	25	25	165	676	114	38	13	100%	6.6	16.9%	5.6%	11.2%	2.0%	3.83	3.49	+3.9
2017	24	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	25	25	165	676	114	38	13	100%	6.6	16.9%	5.6%	11.2%	1.9%	3.83	3.43	+4.0
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	138	577	121	45	19	100%	5.3	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	3.6%	4.49	4.41	+1.6
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	138	577	121	45	19	100%	5.3	21.0%	7.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.49	4.11	+2.1
2020	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	10	10	28	136	20	12	8	100%	2.8	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	6.1%	8.78	6.35	-0.3
2020	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	10	10	28	136	20	12	8	100%	2.8	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	5.9%	8.78	6.71	-0.4
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	5	72	305	75	20	7	9%	1.3	24.6%	6.1%	18.5%	2.5%	2.89	3.14	+1.2
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	5	72	305	75	20	7	9%	1.3	24.6%	6.6%	18.0%	2.3%	2.89	3.11	+1.2
2022	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	67	0	64	276	61	22	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	1.4%	3.39	3.03	+1.2
2022	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	67	0	64	276	61	22	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	1.4%	3.39	3.04	+1.1
2023	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	58	1	57	237	65	28	7	2%	1.0	27.4%	11.8%	15.6%	3.1%	4.42	3.96	+0.4
2023	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	58	1	57	237	65	28	7	2%	1.0	27.4%	11.8%	15.6%	3.0%	4.42	3.89	+0.4
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	4	72	300	89	30	8	8%	1.5	26.7%	9.1%	17.6%	2.3%	3.50	3.26	+1.1
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	4	72	300	89	30	8	8%	1.5	26.7%	9.1%	17.6%	2.3%	3.50	3.26	+1.1
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	4	72	300	89	30	8	8%	1.5	29.7%	10.0%	19.7%	2.7%	3.50	3.32	+1.1
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	57	243	70	28	3	0%	1.1	25.8%	10.7%	15.2%	1.2%	3.02	2.94	+1.1
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	57	243	70	28	3	0%	1.1	25.8%	10.7%	15.2%	1.2%	3.02	2.94	+1.1
2026	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	57	243	70	28	3	0%	1.1	28.8%	11.5%	17.3%	1.2%	3.02	2.80	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			280	90	693	2911	596	213	77	32%	2.5	20.5%	7.3%	13.2%	2.6%	3.93	3.75	+6.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	NYY	147	0	154	650	170	65	16	0%	1.0	26.1%	10.0%	16.1%	2.4%	3.96	3.89	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	NYY	110	0	116	488	123	52	14	0%	1.1	25.1%	10.6%	14.6%	2.8%	4.12	4.22	+0.4
2029	36	MLB MLE	NYY	85	0	89	375	90	42	12	0%	1.0	24.1%	11.2%	12.9%	3.2%	4.40	4.59	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	NYY	110	0	116	490	123	52	14	0%	1.1	25.1%	10.6%	14.6%	2.8%	4.12	4.22	+0.5
2029	36	MLB CTX	NYY	85	0	89	376	91	42	12	0%	1.0	24.1%	11.2%	12.9%	3.2%	4.40	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		475	90	898	3774	809	306	102	19%	1.9	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	2.7%	4.00	3.81	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		106	20	200	841	180	68	23	19%	1.9	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	2.7%	4.00	3.81	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		392	122	951	3964	839	299	100	31%	2.4	21.2%	7.5%	13.6%	2.5%	3.60	3.65	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	26	200	834	176	63	21	31%	2.4	21.2%	7.5%	13.6%	2.5%	3.60	3.65	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 43 IPFIP 2.45 → 2.67 (+0.22)K% 28.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.860	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×0.900	10.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.55%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.60%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.45 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 66 IPFIP 3.15 → 3.26 (+0.12)K% 31.0% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.05%	—	×0.860	26.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.11%	—	×0.900	9.10%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷1.204	×1.100	2.31%

Result: FIP 3.15 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 15 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.83 (+0.87)K% 29.0% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.99%	—	×0.880	25.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.25%	—	×1.050	7.61%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷0.899	×1.100	5.32%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAErie SeaWolves · 118 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.21 (+0.54)K% 24.3% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.31%	—	×0.810	19.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.34%	—	×1.100	6.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷1.100	×1.200	1.61%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 120).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+St. Lucie Mets · 7 IPFIP 2.26 → 2.92 (+0.67)K% 36.0% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.770	27.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.269	×1.250	3.94%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 154).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Fulmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.4%	—	4.38	24.7%	13.9%	204	+0.49	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	69
Dustin Molleken R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	32	SU	3.38	24.3%	12.4%	1.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	129	67
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	67
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	63
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	63
Jumbo Diaz R 2018 · 2.80 FIP	34	SU	2.80	23.2%	10.4%	0.6%	.296	2.98	25.0%	17.3%	56	+0.18	2.80	319	63
Huascar Brazobán R 2024 · 3.08 FIP	34	SU	3.08	23.5%	11.5%	0.9%	.259	3.71	21.3%	11.7%	144	+0.63	3.08	370	62
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	61
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	60
Nelson Figueroa R 2008 · 3.94 FIP	34	SW	3.94	17.1%	11.8%	1.4%	.306	3.96	17.5%	9.9%	192	+0.02	3.71	499	59
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	59
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2002 · 2.76 FIP	34	SU	2.76	29.3%	6.4%	2.4%	.247	3.30	19.3%	10.6%	33	+0.54	2.76	223	59
Jay Jackson R 2022 · 2.98 FIP	34	SU	2.98	27.5%	5.3%	2.8%	.327	4.83	26.2%	20.2%	85	+1.85	2.36	261	58
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	58
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	58
Greg Burke R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.1%	7.3%	2.7%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	57
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	57
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	57
Blake Parker R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	34	SU	4.65	25.5%	8.6%	4.8%	.258	4.26	24.9%	15.4%	87	-0.39	2.52	406	56
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	105	22.1%	8.7%	1.03	4.00
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Scott Garrelts ('82-'91, 10 WAR*)	4.8	120	22.5%*	10.1%*	1.02*	3.96*
Garrett Richards ('22)	4.9	98	20.4%	8.7%	0.85	3.87
Darren Dreifort ('04)	4.4	97	21.2%	10.3%	0.93	4.36
Brandon Morrow ('18)	4.3	78	24.0%	10.1%	0.92	3.96