Michael Fulmer
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.6
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 221 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.22
FIP4.09
xFIP6.13
SIERA5.89
K%25.9%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%15.7%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL4545
CMD6060
K†6060
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p9033.5%
K%
p7827.4%
xwOBA vs
p440.319
CT+1.1 (43%)
FB+0.6 (33%)
SL (4%)
SI (10%)
CU (9%)
CH-1.4 (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 22 | 22 | 125 | 498 | 124 | 30 | 8 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 1.6% | 2.23 | 3.20 | +3.0 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 29 | 29 | 174 | 716 | 152 | 46 | 19 | 20.9% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 3.15 | 3.66 | +3.2 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 25 | 25 | 165 | 676 | 114 | 38 | 13 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 3.83 | 3.40 | +3.5 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 26 | 26 | 138 | 577 | 121 | 45 | 19 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 4.49 | 4.43 | +1.4 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 10 | 10 | 28 | 136 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 14.7% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 8.78 | 6.31 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 54 | 5 | 72 | 305 | 75 | 20 | 7 | 24.6% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 2.89 | 3.13 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 67 | 0 | 64 | 276 | 61 | 22 | 4 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 1.3% | 3.39 | 2.98 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 58 | 1 | 57 | 237 | 65 | 28 | 7 | 27.4% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 3.91 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 48 | 4 | 72 | 300 | 89 | 30 | 8 | 27.3% | 10.6% | 2.3% | 3.50 | 3.38 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 5 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | SF | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 61 | 23 | 6 | 26.3% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | SF | — | — | 61 | 257 | 69 | 27 | 6 | 26.7% | 10.7% | 2.5% | 4.03 | 3.61 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SF | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 52 | 21 | 6 | 25.6% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SF | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 44 | 19 | 5 | 24.9% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | SF | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 24.1% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 37 | MLB | SF | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 344 | 122 | 901 | 3748 | 786 | 282 | 94 | 21.0% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 3.63 | 3.66 | +16.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 76 | 27 | 200 | 832 | 174 | 63 | 21 | 21.0% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 3.63 | 3.66 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Fulmer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 26.3% | 10.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.34 | 25.0% | 14.3% | 127 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 81 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 80 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 80 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 77 |
| Daniel Bard R 2028 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.63 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 316 | 76 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.38 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.6% | .356 | 4.65 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.27 | 2.80 | 410 | 76 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 75 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.12 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 1.6% | .358 | 4.15 | 13.7% | 6.9% | 250 | +1.03 | 3.12 | 352 | 74 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 74 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.02 | 23.7% | 7.5% | 1.8% | .211 | 4.10 | 27.5% | 16.8% | 42 | +1.08 | 2.58 | 277 | 72 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 72 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 72 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 72 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.03 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .305 | 5.07 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.04 | 2.83 | 239 | 72 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 72 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.07 | 31.1% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .275 | 2.96 | 28.4% | 19.5% | 146 | -0.11 | 2.15 | 488 | 71 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 71 |
| Carlos Carrasco R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.44 | 29.3% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .288 | 4.25 | 20.8% | 13.5% | 296 | +0.81 | 2.64 | 1,424 | 71 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.