Victor Diaz — OGILVIE

Victor DiazC Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 235 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .247 / .295

PA6

HR0

K%35

BB%6

ISO104

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	257	232	67	16	3	2	17	45	3	6	5	289	345	409	755	121	342	18	7	332	111	+3	-1	—	—	+6	0.8
2021	19	ROK	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	—	17	14	4	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	286	375	571	946	286	429	35	12	386	148	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2022	20	ROK	DSL HOU Orange	—	98	85	23	4	0	3	13	19	0	6	1	271	367	424	791	153	317	19	13	356	127	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	21	ROK	FCL Astros	—	106	93	21	6	0	5	9	27	1	2	0	226	301	452	753	226	250	25	8	322	104	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	105	97	13	2	0	3	6	39	1	0	0	134	192	247	440	113	179	37	6	200	21	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2024	22	ROK	FCL Astros	—	37	35	13	2	0	2	1	7	0	0	0	371	389	600	989	229	407	19	3	421	171	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	257	240	50	11	2	2	9	65	3	6	5	208	246	296	542	87	256	25	4	231	42	-18	-1	—	—	+6	-1.3
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	—	17	15	4	1	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	267	312	533	846	267	335	47	6	266	66	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	—	98	91	16	2	0	2	7	28	0	6	1	176	235	264	498	88	243	29	7	242	50	-6	+1	—	—	+2	-0.3
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	106	96	15	4	0	3	6	37	1	2	0	156	214	292	505	135	189	35	6	213	30	-9	+0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	105	100	9	1	0	2	3	54	1	0	0	90	125	160	285	70	158	51	3	131	-25	-16	+0	—	—	+2	-1.4
2024	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	37	35	9	1	0	1	1	10	0	0	0	257	278	371	649	114	323	27	3	305	93	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	257	240	50	11	2	2	9	65	3	6	5	208	246	296	542	87	270	25	4	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	—	257	232	67	16	3	2	17	45	3	6	5	289	345	409	755	121	342	18	7	332	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	—	17	15	4	1	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	267	312	533	846	267	500	47	6	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	—	17	14	4	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	286	375	571	946	286	429	35	12	386	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	—	98	91	16	2	0	2	7	28	0	6	1	176	235	264	498	88	230	29	7	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Orange	—	98	85	23	4	0	3	13	19	0	6	1	271	367	424	791	153	317	19	13	356	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	106	96	15	4	0	3	6	37	1	2	0	156	214	292	505	135	203	35	6	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	106	93	21	6	0	5	9	27	1	2	0	226	301	452	753	226	250	25	8	322	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	142	135	19	3	0	3	4	64	1	0	0	141	171	230	401	89	229	45	3	176	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	142	132	26	4	0	5	7	46	1	0	0	197	243	341	584	144	253	32	5	257	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	257	243	50	11	2	2	9	65	3	6	5	206	246	292	538	86	256	25	4	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers Shoemaker	—	17	16	4	1	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	250	312	500	812	250	335	47	6	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	—	98	91	16	2	0	2	7	28	0	6	1	176	235	264	498	88	243	29	7	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	106	98	15	4	0	3	6	37	1	2	0	153	214	286	499	133	189	35	6	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	142	136	19	3	0	3	4	64	1	0	0	140	171	228	399	88	201	45	3	176	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	106	98	15	4	0	3	6	37	1	2	0	153	214	286	499	133	189	35	6	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	142	136	19	3	0	3	4	64	1	0	0	140	171	228	399	88	201	45	3	176	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	24	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	167	167	167	333		284	33	0	247	53	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	30%	131	121	24	4	1	3	8	44	1	2	0	198	254	322	576	124	285	34	6	257	60	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	44%	235	216	44	8	1	5	15	77	2	3	1	204	262	319	581	116	286	33	6	264	65	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	49%	299	274	57	10	2	7	20	96	3	4	1	208	269	336	605	128	286	32	7	267	67	-12	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	51%	340	311	65	12	2	8	23	109	3	4	1	209	270	338	608	129	286	32	7	267	67	-13	+0	-1	+6	+7	-0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	51%	359	328	67	12	2	8	25	116	3	4	1	204	267	326	593	122	285	32	7	265	66	-15	+0	-1	+6	+8	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	51%	370	338	68	12	2	8	26	120	3	4	1	201	264	320	584	118	283	32	7	262	64	-16	+0	-2	+7	+8	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	30%	39	37	7	1	0	1	2	13	0	0	0	189	231	297	528	108	287	33	5	251	60	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	44%	104	95	20	4	1	2	7	34	1	1	0	211	272	337	609	126	288	33	7	257	65	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	49%	146	134	28	5	1	3	10	47	1	2	1	209	269	328	597	119	288	32	7	260	67	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	51%	175	159	33	6	1	4	12	56	2	2	1	208	272	333	605	126	288	32	7	261	67	-7	+0	-0	+3	+4	-0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	51%	185	168	34	6	1	4	13	60	2	2	1	202	268	321	589	119	287	32	7	259	66	-8	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	51%	190	173	35	6	1	4	13	62	2	2	1	202	266	318	584	116	285	33	7	256	64	-8	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	839	766	157	28	5	18	57	272	8	9	4	205	267	325	592	120	289	32	7	258	57	-35	+0	-2	+15	+18	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	122	22	4	14	44	211	6	7	3	206	267	327	594	121	290	32	7	258	57	-27	+0	-2	+12	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2360	2171	430	79	12	50	144	766	20	35	11	198	254	315	569	117	277	32	6	252	57	-72	+2	-4	+31	+38	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	119	22	3	14	40	211	6	10	3	199	257	316	573	117	278	32	6	252	57	-27	+1	-2	+12	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.4	916	20	10	204	262	322	+16	+16	0.2	0.3
/162	664	14	8	+11.9	+11.6	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Diaz (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	192/247/295	104	284	1	1	35%	6%	53	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Joe Donovan 2023 · A	24	34	44→45	51→40	35	174/244/287	113	284	12	7	41%	6%	51	-2.3	196/253/305	109	312	10	5	38%	5%	57	-1.8	193/247/308	115	295	10	0	36%	4%	53	-0.8
✕Blake Hunt 2023 · AA	24	38	42→45	50→40	39	192/251/296	104	277	10	5	33%	6%	55	-2.0	208/265/332	124	274	13	5	28%	6%	68	-1.0	208/275/351	144	265	17	1	28%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Jeff Arnold 2012 · A	24	37	43→50	49→40	37	186/241/294	108	271	11	5	34%	6%	51	-2.3	204/262/330	126	308	11	5	36%	6%	66	-1.1	195/252/323	128	296	11	3	36%	6%	58	-0.8
✕Taylor Snyder 2019 · A	24	39→34	44→50	46→50	34	194/238/310	117	291	11	11	36%	4%	53	-2.1	198/246/338	140	298	16	12	38%	5%	62	-1.4	166/224/312	146	239	20	14	39%	7%	46	-1.3
✕Jimmy Glowenke 2023 · A	24	36→38	46→45	43→45	37	187/254/312	125	281	14	3	37%	6%	60	-1.6	199/273/309	110	266	11	6	28%	7%	67	-1.1	192/273/294	102	248	10	6	25%	7%	61	-1.0
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	188/254/321	133	272	15	10	35%	6%	62	-1.4	207/272/348	141	302	15	9	35%	6%	75	-0.5	202/267/346	145	293	16	7	35%	6%	71	-0.3
✕Jeremy Eierman 2021 · A	24	34→26	42→50	50→45	33	174/221/277	103	286	10	9	42%	5%	38	-3.2	186/241/326	140	295	17	10	41%	5%	58	-1.7	164/222/309	144	249	20	10	42%	5%	45	-1.1
✕David Sheaffer 2019 · A	24	36	42→50	52→40	39	184/231/287	103	246	10	7	29%	5%	44	-2.8	211/256/331	120	295	12	5	31%	5%	64	-1.3	193/238/303	110	272	11	1	33%	5%	49	-0.7
✕Nick Quintana 2022 · A	24	33→40	43→45	47→45	45	171/253/277	106	242	11	6	33%	9%	52	-2.2	190/275/295	105	266	10	5	30%	9%	64	-1.3	176/269/273	97	244	10	3	30%	10%	54	-1.0
✕Carter Aldrete 2022 · A	24	41→39	44→50	47→45	37	201/253/309	108	305	12	10	37%	6%	58	-1.7	208/255/347	139	287	17	5	32%	6%	68	-1.0	195/240/330	135	259	17	2	31%	5%	56	-1.1
✕JJ Schwarz 2021 · A	25	38	41→45	48→30	43	190/254/280	91	265	9	6	31%	7%	52	-2.2	214/281/329	115	298	12	3	30%	8%	73	-0.6	208/278/322	114	287	13	1	30%	9%	68	-0.5
✕Mat Nelson 2023 · A	24	38→29	42→45	46→40	33	180/249/278	98	318	10	4	44%	6%	50	-2.3	181/266/294	113	262	14	5	35%	8%	61	-1.5	171/264/285	114	233	16	3	33%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→29	45	50	37	194/252/314	121	284	13	12	35%	6%	59	-1.6	211/268/301	90	318	8	17	34%	6%	61	-1.5	217/275/286	69	332	7	24	34%	6%	57	-1.1
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	43→50	46→45	38	201/248/313	112	281	10	7	32%	5%	57	-1.8	196/259/294	98	295	9	10	34%	8%	57	-1.8	166/232/250	84	247	9	10	35%	8%	35	-0.9
✕Tate Blackman 2019 · A	24	38→35	45	43→40	40	190/262/305	114	289	13	5	37%	8%	61	-1.5	180/251/269	89	321	9	5	43%	7%	49	-2.4	129/208/180	51	259	5	1	48%	8%	12	-2.8
✕Willie MacIver 2021 · A	24	38→35	43→50	49→55	37	193/242/301	107	263	10	9	30%	5%	52	-2.2	194/263/314	120	281	13	15	34%	7%	63	-1.3	231/310/361	130	325	12	18	30%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Payton Henry 2021 · A	24	39→31	43→45	43→30	31	186/248/288	102	319	11	3	43%	5%	53	-2.1	223/286/321	98	333	10	3	34%	6%	74	-0.6	242/289/361	119	320	16	1	29%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Joseph Odom 2016 · A	24	37	44→45	42→30	41	190/246/304	115	260	12	4	31%	7%	55	-2.0	220/260/327	107	297	10	3	28%	5%	64	-1.3	186/244/289	104	311	11	2	41%	6%	47	-1.0
✕Aramis Garcia 2017 · A	24	42→41	43→50	46→45	41	210/263/315	105	286	12	4	30%	6%	63	-1.4	215/260/357	142	294	17	2	32%	5%	72	-0.7	192/231/311	119	253	16	3	31%	3%	48	-0.8
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	177/255/257	79	269	8	14	35%	9%	48	-2.5	207/287/299	92	295	7	12	29%	9%	69	-0.9	212/301/305	93	294	5	13	27%	10%	75	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps