Richard Gallardo

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#751ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	16	16	76	4.50	3.06	22.0%	6.4%	—	K 17.1% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.64
2024	22	MIX2 levels	5	4	18	5.50	2.60	20.7%	4.9%	—	K 18.1% · BB 5.8% · FIP 3.32
2026	24	MIX2 levels	26	20	106	4.25	4.30	19.3%	8.9%	—	K 16.3% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.68
2027PROJ	25	MLBTOR	1	1	6	4.86	4.86	16.8%	8.4%	0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBTOR	6	6	38	4.75	4.72	18.2%	8.3%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBTOR	8	8	47	4.72	4.73	18.4%	8.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.4M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsNick Payero (age 24) · Dylan Burns (age 25) · Angel Araiza (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%16.8%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 1	11	9	30	134	23	12	1	82%	2.8	11.7%	11.2%	0.5%	1.0%	4.15	4.11	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 1	11	9	30	134	23	12	1	82%	2.8	17.2%	9.0%	8.2%	0.7%	4.15	3.20	—
2021	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	21	91	398	75	32	8	100%	4.3	13.9%	9.5%	4.5%	2.7%	4.53	4.59	—
2021	19	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	21	91	398	75	32	8	100%	4.3	18.8%	8.0%	10.8%	2.0%	4.53	3.65	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	122	533	104	43	17	96%	4.7	14.1%	9.3%	4.8%	3.7%	4.06	5.11	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	122	533	104	43	17	96%	4.7	19.5%	8.1%	11.4%	3.2%	4.06	4.26	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	76	327	72	21	6	100%	4.8	17.1%	7.3%	9.8%	1.9%	4.50	3.64	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	76	327	72	21	6	100%	4.8	22.0%	6.4%	15.6%	1.8%	4.50	3.06	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	18	82	17	4	1	80%	3.6	18.1%	5.8%	12.3%	1.8%	5.50	3.32	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	18	82	17	4	1	80%	3.6	18.1%	5.8%	12.3%	1.8%	5.50	3.32	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	4	18	82	17	4	1	80%	3.6	20.7%	4.9%	15.9%	1.2%	5.50	2.60	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	106	460	89	41	14	77%	4.1	16.3%	8.4%	7.9%	3.5%	4.25	4.68	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	106	460	89	41	14	77%	4.1	16.3%	8.4%	7.9%	3.5%	4.25	4.68	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	106	460	89	41	14	77%	4.1	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	3.0%	4.25	4.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TOR	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	6.0	16.8%	8.4%	8.4%	3.2%	4.86	4.86	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	79	333	61	28	11	100%	6.1	18.2%	8.3%	9.9%	3.2%	4.75	4.72	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	72	303	56	25	10	100%	6.0	18.4%	8.3%	10.1%	3.2%	4.72	4.73	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	67	282	52	24	9	100%	6.1	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	3.3%	4.75	4.79	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	62	260	48	22	9	100%	6.2	18.4%	8.6%	9.7%	3.4%	4.83	4.90	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	56	234	42	21	8	100%	6.2	18.0%	8.9%	9.1%	3.6%	4.98	5.08	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	38	160	29	13	5	100%	6.3	18.2%	8.3%	9.9%	3.2%	4.75	4.72	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	47	198	37	16	6	100%	5.9	18.4%	8.3%	10.1%	3.2%	4.72	4.73	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	52	220	41	18	7	100%	5.8	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	3.3%	4.75	4.79	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	51	215	40	19	7	100%	6.4	18.4%	8.6%	9.7%	3.4%	4.83	4.90	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	48	203	36	18	7	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.9%	9.1%	3.6%	4.98	5.08	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	39	236	997	182	85	33	100%	6.1	18.3%	8.5%	9.8%	3.3%	4.81	4.47	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	154	72	28	100%	6.0	18.3%	8.5%	9.8%	3.3%	4.81	4.47	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		105	95	444	1934	292	169	55	90%	4.2	15.1%	8.8%	6.3%	2.9%	4.34	4.51	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	43	200	872	132	76	25	90%	4.2	15.1%	8.8%	6.3%	2.9%	4.34	4.51	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 68 IPFIP 4.55 → 4.79 (+0.24)K% 18.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.48%	—	×0.860	15.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.89%	—	×0.900	9.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.97%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.27%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.55 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 38 IPFIP 3.72 → 4.47 (+0.75)K% 21.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.02%	—	×0.810	17.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.10%	—	×1.100	5.61%
HR / BF /BF	3.18%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.82%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.72 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 16 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.32 (+0.72)K% 22.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.37%	—	×0.810	18.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.100	5.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷0.854	×1.200	1.85%

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 66 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.34 (+0.58)K% 22.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.91%	—	×0.770	17.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.73%	—	×1.150	5.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷1.197	×1.250	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 139).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATennessee Smokies · 10 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.23 (+0.59)K% 17.3% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.31%	—	×0.810	14.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.100	16.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.082	×1.200	2.13%

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 87 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.48 (+1.12)K% 22.5% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.52%	—	×0.740	16.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.77%	—	×1.180	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷0.942	×1.300	2.96%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+South Bend Cubs · 31 IPFIP 5.64 → 6.76 (+1.12)K% 9.8% → 7.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.79%	—	×0.770	7.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.39%	—	×1.150	9.65%
HR / BF /BF	4.20%	÷0.938	×1.250	5.59%

Result: FIP 5.64 → 6.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 91 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.59 (+0.96)K% 18.8% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.84%	—	×0.740	13.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.04%	—	×1.180	9.49%
HR / BF /BF	2.01%	÷0.977	×1.300	2.67%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Richard Gallardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	16.8%	8.4%	3.2%	—	4.74	18.4%	10.0%	217	-0.12	—	—	—
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	85
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	84
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	84
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	84
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	82
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	82
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	81
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	81
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	81
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	81
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	81
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	81
Trenton Toplikar R 2021 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP-	5.25	16.4%	9.3%	4.3%	.325	5.83	16.9%	4.2%	30	+0.58	4.32	232	80
Darren Bowen R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	16.7%	9.1%	2.2%	.312	6.06	14.4%	2.5%	150	+1.98	3.82	278	80
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	80
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	80
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	80
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	80
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	80
Ryan Bergert R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	16.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.317	4.27	21.4%	11.7%	121	+0.33	3.44	428	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	67	18.1%	8.5%	1.27	4.81
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*