Richard Gallardo

Richard Gallardo P Buffalo Bisons

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%20.0%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 1	11	9	30	134	23	12	1	82%	2.8	11.7%	11.2%	0.5%	1.0%	4.15	4.11	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 1	11	9	30	134	23	12	1	82%	2.8	17.2%	9.0%	8.2%	0.7%	4.15	3.20	—
2021	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	21	91	398	75	32	8	100%	4.3	13.9%	9.5%	4.5%	2.7%	4.53	4.59	—
2021	19	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	21	91	398	75	32	8	100%	4.3	18.8%	8.0%	10.8%	2.0%	4.53	3.65	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	122	533	104	43	17	96%	4.7	14.1%	9.3%	4.8%	3.7%	4.06	5.11	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	122	533	104	43	17	96%	4.7	19.5%	8.1%	11.4%	3.2%	4.06	4.26	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	76	327	72	21	6	100%	4.8	17.1%	7.3%	9.8%	1.9%	4.50	3.64	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	76	327	72	21	6	100%	4.8	17.1%	7.3%	9.8%	1.9%	4.50	3.64	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	76	327	72	21	6	100%	4.8	22.0%	6.4%	15.6%	1.8%	4.50	3.06	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	18	82	17	4	1	80%	3.6	18.1%	5.8%	12.3%	1.8%	5.50	3.32	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	18	82	17	4	1	80%	3.6	18.1%	5.8%	12.3%	1.8%	5.50	3.32	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	4	18	82	17	4	1	80%	3.6	20.7%	4.9%	15.9%	1.2%	5.50	2.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	25	19	100	435	86	41	14	76%	4.0	16.3%	8.9%	7.4%	3.7%	4.23	4.85	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	25	19	100	435	86	41	14	76%	4.0	16.3%	8.9%	7.4%	3.7%	4.23	4.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	TOR	8	8	38	157	33	8	5	100%	4.8	21.0%	5.1%	15.9%	3.2%	3.79	3.72	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	TOR	17	11	62	278	53	33	9	65%	3.6	19.1%	11.9%	7.2%	3.2%	4.50	4.77	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	99	418	87	31	12	100%	5.8	20.7%	7.4%	13.3%	2.9%	4.29	4.26	+0.7
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	99	418	88	31	12	100%	5.8	21.0%	7.4%	13.6%	2.9%	4.26	4.24	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	98	412	87	31	12	100%	6.1	21.1%	7.5%	13.6%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	95	400	84	31	12	100%	5.9	21.0%	7.6%	13.3%	3.1%	4.32	4.36	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	90	382	79	30	12	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.9%	12.9%	3.2%	4.42	4.49	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	85	359	73	29	12	100%	6.1	20.4%	8.2%	12.2%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	+0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	79	335	74	26	12	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	3.6%	4.59	4.60	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	73	310	67	25	12	100%	6.1	21.5%	8.1%	13.4%	3.9%	4.73	4.82	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	48	203	42	15	6	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.4%	13.3%	2.9%	4.29	4.26	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	69	291	61	22	8	100%	5.8	21.0%	7.4%	13.6%	2.9%	4.26	4.24	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	77	325	68	24	10	100%	5.9	21.1%	7.5%	13.6%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	81	342	72	26	10	100%	5.8	21.0%	7.6%	13.3%	3.1%	4.32	4.36	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	80	338	70	27	11	100%	6.2	20.7%	7.9%	12.9%	3.2%	4.42	4.49	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	77	325	66	27	11	100%	5.9	20.4%	8.2%	12.2%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	73	308	68	24	11	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	3.6%	4.59	4.60	+0.3
2034	32	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	68	287	62	23	11	100%	6.2	21.5%	8.1%	13.4%	3.9%	4.73	4.82	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	96	572	2415	508	187	79	100%	6.0	21.0%	7.7%	13.3%	3.3%	4.43	4.09	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	178	65	28	100%	6.0	21.0%	7.7%	13.3%	3.3%	4.43	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		104	94	438	1909	288	169	55	90%	4.2	15.1%	8.9%	6.2%	2.9%	4.34	4.54	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	43	200	872	132	77	25	90%	4.2	15.1%	8.9%	6.2%	2.9%	4.34	4.54	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Richard Gallardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	20.0%	7.5%	2.9%	—	4.26	20.9%	13.5%	296	-0.08	—	—	—
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	87
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	80
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	80
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	80
Octavio Acosta R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	15.5%	5.6%	4.0%	.337	4.39	16.3%	4.8%	184	-0.34	3.88	333	79
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	79
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	79
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	79
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	77
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	77
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	77
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.14	21.6%	13.7%	194	+0.33	3.53	352	76
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	75
Chris Clark R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	18.9%	6.9%	1.7%	.362	4.77	18.1%	7.5%	330	+1.48	3.29	349	75
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	75
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	74
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	74
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	74
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	82	21.0%	7.7%	1.24	4.41
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98