Theo McDowell
P
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 27
RHP
6'6" / 220 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
K%23.1%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP21
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 11 | 0 | 16 | 79 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 7.7% | 15.8% | -8.1% | 1.8% | 9.37 | 5.42 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 11 | 0 | 16 | 79 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 11.4% | 12.7% | -1.3% | 1.3% | 9.37 | 4.63 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 28 | 133 | 50 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.8% | 22.8% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.07 | 7.04 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 0 | 28 | 133 | 50 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 37.6% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 4.5% | 7.07 | 4.99 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 48 | 188 | 59 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.6% | 14.9% | 8.7% | 1.4% | 2.64 | 3.75 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 48 | 188 | 59 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.4% | 12.8% | 18.6% | 1.1% | 2.64 | 2.68 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 41 | 200 | 49 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.7% | 19.5% | 0.1% | 5.2% | 7.62 | 6.79 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 41 | 200 | 49 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.5% | 16.5% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 7.62 | 5.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 0 | 21 | 87 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.18 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 80 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 100 | 0 | 133 | 600 | 125 | 110 | 22 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 18.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.94 | 5.71 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 0 | 200 | 900 | 188 | 165 | 34 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 18.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.94 | 5.71 | -0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Theo McDowell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 20 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 84 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 83 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 83 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 83 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .339 | 3.34 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 166 | 82 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .417 | 2.87 | 19.5% | 13.2% | 71 | -1.12 | 1.94 | 143 | 82 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .237 | 2.64 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.75 | 2.45 | 394 | 82 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 82 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 81 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 81 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.13 | 24.2% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 217 | 81 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 80 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.30 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.16 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.86 | 2.80 | 155 | 80 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 80 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.83 | 16.8% | 2.7% | 45 | +0.84 | 3.74 | 163 | 80 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.07 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.45 | 4.02 | 328 | 80 |
| Tanner Kohlhepp R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.74 | 23.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 150 | 80 |
| David Hernandez R 2029 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 80 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 80 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.74 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.72 | 2.74 | 239 | 80 |