Mike Burrows

P Houston Astros

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPD6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX4 levels	17	15	55	5.10	5.20	24.5%	10.8%	-0.2	K 22.9% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.93
2025	25	MIX2 levels	31	26	128	3.58	3.83	25.9%	7.7%	1.6	K 24.9% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.15
2026	26	MIX2 levels	22	21	110	5.40	5.24	18.8%	8.2%	-0.4	K 18.3% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.24
2027PROJ	27	MLBHOU	10	10	58	4.83	4.91	21.6%	7.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBHOU	15	15	90	4.93	4.99	21.4%	7.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBHOU	14	14	86	5.07	5.16	20.9%	8.1%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo57

xwOBA vs30

Whiff%24

K%19

CompsBrian Edgington (age 25) · Matt Andriese (age 27) · Joaquín Benoit (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.83

FIP4.91

K%21.6%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%13.9%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

CH+1.1 (27%)

SI (14%)

CU (14%)

SL-1.3 (16%)

FB-4.6 (42%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Pirates	4	3	14	51	9	4	0	75%	3.5	12.0%	9.8%	2.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.33	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Pirates	4	3	14	51	9	4	0	75%	3.5	17.6%	7.8%	9.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.67	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	13	13	49	193	66	20	3	100%	3.8	26.3%	11.9%	14.4%	1.6%	2.20	3.25	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	13	13	49	193	66	20	3	100%	3.8	34.2%	10.4%	23.8%	1.6%	2.20	2.43	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	94	393	111	31	8	92%	3.9	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	2.2%	4.01	3.41	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	94	393	111	31	8	92%	3.9	28.2%	7.9%	20.4%	2.0%	4.01	2.83	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	2	2	7	25	3	2	2	100%	3.3	12.0%	8.0%	4.0%	8.0%	2.70	7.49	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	2	2	7	25	3	2	2	100%	3.3	12.0%	8.0%	4.0%	8.0%	2.70	7.00	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	15	55	249	61	27	12	88%	3.2	22.9%	8.0%	14.9%	5.0%	5.10	4.93	-0.0
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	17	15	55	249	61	27	12	88%	3.2	22.9%	8.0%	14.9%	5.0%	5.10	4.93	-0.0
2024	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	17	15	55	249	61	27	12	88%	3.2	24.5%	10.8%	13.7%	4.8%	5.10	5.20	-0.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	128	532	138	41	19	84%	4.1	24.9%	7.5%	17.4%	4.0%	3.58	4.15	+1.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	128	532	138	41	19	84%	4.1	24.9%	7.5%	17.4%	4.0%	3.58	4.15	+1.1
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	26	128	532	138	41	19	84%	4.1	25.9%	7.7%	18.2%	3.6%	3.58	3.83	+1.6
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	110	490	92	40	23	95%	5.0	18.3%	8.1%	10.2%	4.9%	5.40	5.24	-0.4
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	110	490	92	40	23	95%	5.0	18.3%	8.1%	10.2%	4.9%	5.40	5.24	-0.4
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	110	490	92	40	23	95%	5.0	18.8%	8.2%	10.6%	4.7%	5.40	5.24	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	36	194	839	174	68	35	86%	4.6	20.7%	8.1%	12.6%	4.2%	4.92	4.70	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	HOU	10	10	58	245	53	19	10	100%	5.8	21.6%	7.7%	13.9%	4.1%	4.83	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	95	402	86	32	17	100%	5.9	21.4%	7.9%	13.6%	4.2%	4.93	4.99	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	91	383	80	31	17	100%	6.1	20.9%	8.1%	12.8%	4.4%	5.07	5.16	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	85	361	73	30	17	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	4.6%	5.24	5.36	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	90	380	82	30	16	100%	6.0	21.4%	7.9%	13.6%	4.2%	4.93	4.99	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	86	363	76	29	16	100%	6.1	20.9%	8.1%	12.8%	4.4%	5.07	5.16	-0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	81	342	69	29	16	100%	5.8	20.2%	8.4%	11.8%	4.6%	5.24	5.36	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	79	452	1927	401	156	83	93%	5.3	20.8%	8.1%	12.7%	4.3%	5.01	4.73	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	35	200	853	178	69	37	93%	5.3	20.8%	8.1%	12.7%	4.3%	5.01	4.73	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		113	102	457	1933	432	163	71	90%	4.0	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	3.7%	4.02	4.31	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	45	200	846	189	71	31	90%	4.0	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	3.7%	4.02	4.31	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mike Burrows (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	21.6%	7.7%	4.1%	—	5.16	20.8%	12.7%	271	+0.25	—	—	—
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	71
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	71
Joaquín Benoit R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	27	SP-	4.49	20.8%	6.8%	4.2%	.302	3.31	23.7%	14.5%	249	-1.18	1.99	1,064	70
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	69
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	69
Claudio Vargas R 2005 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	16.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.285	4.61	16.6%	9.2%	339	-0.37	3.66	765	69
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	68
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	68
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	68
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	67
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	67
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	67
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	67
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	67
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	67
Louis Varland R 2024 · 4.42 FIP	26	SP-	4.42	21.7%	7.2%	4.1%	.329	2.31	28.6%	21.4%	151	-2.11	1.70	689	66
Christian Scott R 2024 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP	4.68	23.9%	6.3%	5.1%	.249	3.48	27.9%	18.7%	124	-1.20	2.56	358	66
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	66
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	66
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	88	20.9%	8.1%	1.66	4.99
Leon Chagnon ('29-'35, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	21.6%*	7.5%*	1.60*	4.88*
Al Gettel ('45-'55, 2 WAR*)	3.7	122	20.1%*	8.3%*	1.75*	4.81*
Belve Bean ('30-'35, -1 WAR*)	1.2	59	19.8%*	8.6%*	1.64*	4.94*
Hideki Irabu ('02)	2.6	103	18.1%	7.8%	1.59	5.15
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.2	77	18.0%	8.1%	1.48	4.96
Alec Mills ('23)	1.3	86	19.3%	7.2%	1.50	5.00