Matt McLain

2B Cincinnati Reds

Age 27 R/R 5'8" / 180 lbs MLB HR +16%BB +6% Svc 2.814S2 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	24	INTLGlendale Dese…	59	.240/.356/.520	4	1	145	—
2025	25	MLBCIN	577	.220/.302/.343	15	18	79	0.9
2026	26	MLBCIN	496	.185/.275/.334	15	20	67	-0.3
2027PROJ	27	MLBCIN	531	.218/.303/.370	17	26	87	1.2
2028PROJ98% MLB	28	MLBCIN	513	.216/.300/.365	16	23	85	0.9
2029PROJ98% MLB	29	MLBCIN	501	.214/.298/.358	15	20	83	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.814First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$3M2029Arb-3$4M2030Arb-4$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2026

Chase%90

Whiff%86

Speed81

Barrel%55

Bat Spd55

xwOBA45

Form.205/.267/.336 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .215/.298/.360

CompsMichael Helman (age 27) · Kyle Datres (age 28) · Jake Slaughter (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9187vR 76

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .303 / .370

PA531

HR17

SB26

K%27

BB%10

BABIP276

ISO154

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

867.2%

xAVG

150.223

POWER45

Barrel%

559.0

Avg EV

4388.6

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE55

Chase%

9019.2%

SPEED60

Sprint

8128.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%30%▼▼31% over 94 PA (60d) · proj 28%

BB%7%▼▼3% over 94 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.130▼.103 over 87 AB (60d) · proj .145

HR/BB4.3%·3.4% over 59 BBE (60d) · proj 4.8%

BABIP.269▼.193 over 57 BIP (60d) · proj .275

SLASH.205/.267/.336▼▼proj .215/.298/.360

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 689 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

159

530

—

wRC+

103

◀◀L

wOBA

320

284

◀L

ISO

126

121

◀L

BABIP

311

283

◀L

27.7%

28.1%

—

BB%

13.8%

9.2%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.814 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+1.5	$12M	+$10M
2028	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.7M
2029	Arb-3	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-4	$4M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$18M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	119	99	27	6	0	3	17	24	2	10	2	273	390	424	814	152	329	20	14	366	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	452	371	86	21	5	17	70	127	8	27	3	232	365	453	818	221	300	28	15	363	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	97	79	15	2	1	2	14	31	4	6	1	190	340	316	657	127	283	32	14	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	403	365	106	23	4	16	31	115	7	14	5	290	357	507	864	216	385	29	8	380	138	+18	+1	+3	+6	+9	3.8
2023	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	180	144	49	12	1	12	30	37	5	10	5	340	469	688	1.157	347	385	21	17	491	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	59	50	12	2	0	4	9	21	0	1	0	240	356	520	876	280	320	36	15	383	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	510	112	18	0	15	55	167	5	18	2	220	302	343	645	124	292	29	10	291	79	-14	+3	+6	+2	+13	0.9
2026	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	496	437	81	18	1	15	48	139	6	20	4	185	275	334	609	149	232	28	10	275	67	-19	+2	+2	+2	+11	-0.3
2026	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	20	17	5	2	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	294	400	412	812	118	417	25	10	371	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1476	1312	299	59	5	46	134	421	18	52	11	228	308	386	694	158	297	29	9	310	96	-7	+6	+11	+10	+32	5.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	119	104	22	5	0	3	12	33	2	10	2	212	305	346	651	135	267	28	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	452	394	77	18	5	14	47	153	8	27	3	195	294	373	667	178	269	34	10	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	403	365	105	23	4	15	31	115	7	14	5	288	355	496	851	208	385	29	8	373	138	+18	+1	+3	+6	+9	3.8
2023	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	180	153	44	11	1	9	21	44	5	10	5	288	391	549	940	261	342	24	12	397	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	510	111	18	0	14	55	167	5	18	2	218	300	335	635	118	292	29	10	285	79	-14	+3	+6	+2	+13	0.9
2026	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	496	438	80	18	1	14	47	139	6	20	4	183	271	324	595	142	232	28	9	267	67	-19	+2	+2	+2	+11	-0.3
2026	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	20	18	5	2	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	278	350	389	739	111	372	30	5	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	119	104	22	5	0	3	12	33	2	10	2	212	305	346	651	135	275	28	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	119	99	27	6	0	3	17	24	2	10	2	273	390	424	814	152	329	20	14	366	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	549	476	94	22	6	17	58	186	12	33	4	197	300	376	676	179	279	34	11	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	549	450	101	23	6	19	84	158	12	33	4	224	361	429	790	204	297	29	15	354	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	583	518	148	34	5	23	52	159	12	24	10	286	364	504	868	218	371	27	9	380	143	+30	+1	+3	+6	+13	5.4
2023	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	583	509	155	35	5	28	61	152	12	24	10	305	392	558	950	253	385	26	10	414	143	+30	+1	+3	+6	+13	5.4
2024	24	INTL MLE	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	59	50	12	2	0	4	9	21	0	1	0	240	356	520	876	280	320	36	15	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	INTL RAW	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	59	50	12	2	0	4	9	21	0	1	0	240	356	520	876	280	320	36	15	383	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	510	111	18	0	14	55	167	5	18	2	218	300	335	635	118	291	29	10	285	79	-14	+3	+6	+2	+13	0.9
2025	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	510	112	18	0	15	55	167	5	18	2	220	302	343	645	124	292	29	10	291	79	-14	+3	+6	+2	+13	0.9
2026	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	516	456	84	20	1	14	48	145	7	20	4	184	272	325	597	140	234	28	9	269	68	-20	+2	+2	+2	+11	-0.2
2026	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	516	454	86	20	1	15	50	144	7	20	4	189	280	337	617	148	239	28	10	279	68	-20	+2	+2	+2	+11	-0.2
2021	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	119	104	22	5	0	3	12	33	2	10	2	212	305	346	651	135	267	28	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	549	474	94	22	6	17	58	186	12	33	4	198	300	378	678	179	269	34	11	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	583	514	148	34	5	23	52	159	12	24	10	288	364	508	872	220	371	27	9	380	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	512	111	18	0	14	55	167	5	18	2	217	300	334	634	117	292	29	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	516	456	84	20	1	14	48	145	7	20	4	184	272	325	597	140	237	28	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	512	111	18	0	14	55	167	5	18	2	217	300	334	634	117	292	29	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	516	456	84	20	1	14	48	145	7	20	4	184	272	325	597	140	237	28	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	531	469	102	19	1	16	51	146	6	26	5	216	300	360	660	145	275	27	10	297	87	-8	+3	+3	+2	+12	1.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	531	469	103	19	1	17	51	146	6	26	5	218	303	370	673	152	276	27	10	302	87	-8	+3	+3	+2	+12	1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	98%	523	462	99	19	1	15	50	145	6	24	5	214	298	355	654	142	274	28	10	295	85	-9	+3	+2	+2	+11	0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	98%	511	452	96	18	1	14	48	143	6	20	4	211	295	349	644	138	272	28	9	291	83	-10	+2	+1	+2	+11	0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	CIN	98%	499	444	92	17	1	13	47	142	5	16	3	208	291	341	632	133	269	28	9	286	80	-12	+2	+1	+2	+11	0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	98%	513	453	98	18	1	16	49	143	6	23	4	216	300	365	666	149	275	28	10	299	85	-9	+3	+2	+2	+11	0.9
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	98%	501	444	95	17	1	15	47	141	5	20	4	214	298	358	656	145	273	28	9	295	83	-10	+2	+1	+2	+11	0.6
2030	30	MLB CTX	CIN	98%	489	435	92	17	1	14	46	139	5	16	3	210	294	350	643	139	270	28	9	290	80	-12	+2	+1	+2	+11	0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2979	2644	584	111	8	91	276	844	34	111	22	221	303	372	675	151	286	28	9	302	86	-38	+13	+15	+16	+65	7.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	128	24	2	20	60	184	7	24	5	222	302	374	677	153	287	28	9	302	86	-8	+3	+3	+3	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4467	3941	860	174	16	133	430	1287	61	192	39	218	305	372	677	154	286	29	10	296	86	-47	+16	+18	+18	+77	8.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	124	25	2	19	63	187	9	28	6	216	304	366	670	150	284	29	10	296	86	-9	+3	+3	+3	+14	1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Julio Cruz'77-'86 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,437 PA	6.7	4,437	23	343	233*	321*	315*	+14	+67	12.3	12.7
/162	664	3	51	+2.2	+10.0	1.8	pk7: 13
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.3	3,509	104	137	220	299	368	+13	+30	7.7	7.7
/162	664	20	26	+2.4	+5.7	1.5	pk7: 8
#4Doug Baird'15-'20 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,353 PA	3.5	2,353	6	118	235*	301*	401*	+8	+16	7.4	7.4
/162	664	2	33	+2.1	+4.7	2.1	pk7: 7
#5Dylan Moorelast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,922 PA	2.9	1,922	63	118	206	310	383	+4	+8	6.6	6.6
/162	664	22	41	+1.3	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 7
#6Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt McLain (OGILVIE)	27	40	45	60	55	214/298/357	143	275	16	26	28%	10%	87	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Helman 2023 · AAA	27	41→42	49→50	58→55	46	213/273/359	146	256	18	26	25%	7%	78	-0.3	218/276/366	148	265	17	22	24%	6%	80	-0.2	210/266/364	154	249	17	20	23%	5%	73	-0.3
✕Kyle Datres 2024 · AAA	28	43	47→50	57→55	45	216/296/351	134	292	16	24	30%	8%	84	+0.2	204/280/322	118	289	13	17	32%	8%	72	-0.7	173/254/274	102	244	13	16	33%	9%	50	-0.8
✕Jake Slaughter 2024 · AAA	27	42→48	50	52→55	41	216/288/371	154	291	19	22	32%	7%	86	+0.3	227/291/355	128	317	14	19	31%	7%	83	+0.1	229/290/335	106	327	11	21	31%	6%	74	-0.5
✕Jorge Mateo 2023 · MLB	28	44→50	48→50	60→65	40	224/272/371	148	287	14	32	27%	5%	79	-0.2	220/268/357	137	277	14	40	25%	6%	74	-0.5	209/250/335	125	273	13	52	28%	5%	63	-0.4
✕Jimmy Herron 2024 · AAA	28	47→48	47→45	57→55	49	232/309/370	138	287	14	24	24%	9%	93	+0.8	222/285/331	109	273	11	23	22%	7%	75	-0.5	211/271/300	89	255	10	25	21%	6%	60	-0.9
✕José Caballero 2023 · AA	26	45	44→45	58→70	60	218/329/337	119	274	12	33	23%	13%	95	+0.9	227/322/342	115	296	10	49	25%	10%	93	+0.8	226/318/339	113	301	10	63	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Max Schuemann 2024 · AAA	27	49→51	43→45	56→60	49	233/323/349	116	312	10	25	27%	9%	94	+0.9	222/312/329	107	286	10	18	24%	10%	85	+0.2	211/306/314	103	267	10	18	23%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Luke Williams 2024 · MLB	27	47→44	43→45	59→65	45	228/290/338	110	304	10	34	27%	8%	78	-0.3	201/260/313	112	280	11	35	30%	7%	61	-1.5	174/232/274	100	245	9	44	32%	6%	41	-1.3
✕Corey Julks 2024 · MLB	28	46→50	49→50	54→55	46	234/295/386	152	289	17	21	25%	7%	92	+0.7	229/289/353	124	290	13	18	25%	7%	82	-0.0	222/281/337	115	280	13	16	25%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Drew Stubbs 2013 · MLB	28	46→56	46→50	57→60	46	229/298/356	127	310	15	31	30%	8%	86	+0.3	235/300/372	137	330	15	24	31%	8%	90	+0.6	233/301/372	139	331	14	24	32%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Dylan Moore 2022 · MLB	29	40→49	53→55	55→65	49	212/303/387	175	269	21	29	29%	10%	96	+1.0	217/323/387	170	291	18	33	30%	11%	103	+1.6	207/326/378	171	283	16	41	30%	12%	103	+0.8
✕Tyler Saladino 2016 · MLB	27	49→47	42→45	59→55	46	237/289/344	107	283	9	25	20%	6%	79	-0.2	234/289/341	107	291	10	19	22%	6%	78	-0.3	227/287/327	100	289	10	17	24%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Chris Basak 2006 · AAA	27	47→46	47→45	57→55	46	235/289/376	142	277	14	22	21%	6%	87	+0.4	222/271/337	115	271	10	19	22%	6%	71	-0.8	213/259/317	104	260	9	19	21%	5%	59	-1.1
✕Garrett Hampson 2022 · MLB	27	45→55	45	54→60	44	223/276/351	128	283	13	20	26%	7%	76	-0.4	238/300/344	106	316	8	20	25%	8%	83	+0.1	246/310/331	85	334	4	22	25%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Justin Maxwell 2011 · MLB	27	45	47→60	56→60	48	218/302/353	136	314	14	30	33%	10%	87	+0.4	225/301/414	189	317	24	20	34%	9%	101	+1.4	222/296/434	212	299	27	17	34%	9%	103	+0.7
✕Tyler Greene 2010 · MLB	26	45→50	47→50	58→55	39	227/280/361	134	302	15	24	30%	5%	80	-0.2	235/298/376	141	316	15	23	29%	7%	91	+0.6	233/298/380	148	312	15	24	29%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Taylor Motter 2018 · MLB	28	43→49	48→50	53→55	48	220/278/361	141	250	16	22	20%	7%	79	-0.2	185/249/315	130	225	15	13	25%	7%	59	-1.7	198/274/355	157	245	19	5	27%	9%	76	-0.3
✕Phillip Ervin 2019 · MLB	27	47→51	46→50	54→55	46	234/300/370	136	290	13	23	24%	7%	90	+0.6	227/299/367	140	293	14	15	26%	8%	89	+0.5	215/285/358	143	281	15	16	27%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Reggie Abercrombie 2008 · MLB	27	46→49	50→55	61→60	35	231/274/391	160	309	17	34	31%	4%	85	+0.2	220/254/349	129	328	14	28	36%	3%	68	-1.0	214/257/341	127	316	15	25	36%	3%	65	-0.8
✕Elijah Dunham 2024 · AAA	26	42→44	47→50	57→60	45	209/284/346	137	283	14	28	30%	8%	78	-0.3	207/274/345	138	295	14	20	32%	8%	74	-0.5	192/258/336	144	273	14	17	33%	7%	63	-0.6

Matt McLain

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps