Carlos Duran
P
Oklahoma City Comets
Age 25
RHP
6'7" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 47 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 124
ERA5.49
FIP5.49
K%20.0%
BB%20.2%
K-BB%-0.2%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL (22%)
SI (33%)
FB-1.3 (78%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Dodgers Robinson | 12 | 12 | 42 | 157 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 3.5 | 13.0% | 2.4% | 10.6% | 0.9% | 1.50 | 2.79 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Dodgers Robinson | 12 | 12 | 42 | 157 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 3.5 | 19.1% | 1.9% | 17.2% | 0.6% | 1.50 | 2.20 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers Lasorda | 13 | 13 | 40 | 184 | 39 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 3.1 | 14.4% | 13.6% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 4.24 | 4.86 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers Lasorda | 13 | 13 | 40 | 184 | 39 | 20 | 3 | 100% | 3.1 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 1.6% | 4.24 | 3.62 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 81 | 378 | 115 | 30 | 9 | 91% | 3.7 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 15.4% | 3.7% | 5.56 | 4.18 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 20 | 81 | 378 | 115 | 30 | 9 | 91% | 3.7 | 30.4% | 7.9% | 22.5% | 2.4% | 5.56 | 2.82 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 50 | 215 | 69 | 24 | 6 | 93% | 3.3 | 24.8% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 4.17 | 4.56 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 50 | 215 | 69 | 24 | 6 | 93% | 3.3 | 32.1% | 11.2% | 20.9% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 3.34 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 53 | 248 | 73 | 32 | 4 | 100% | 2.8 | 22.9% | 13.6% | 9.3% | 1.8% | 3.71 | 3.88 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 53 | 248 | 73 | 32 | 4 | 100% | 2.8 | 29.4% | 12.9% | 16.5% | 1.6% | 3.71 | 3.14 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 2 | 63 | 299 | 67 | 58 | 2 | 5% | 1.6 | 20.1% | 19.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 5.43 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 2 | 63 | 299 | 67 | 58 | 2 | 5% | 1.6 | 22.4% | 19.4% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 5.43 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 32 | 1 | 37 | 170 | 54 | 24 | 2 | 3% | 1.2 | 28.0% | 14.8% | 13.1% | 1.3% | 3.65 | 3.33 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAD | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 40 | 40 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 20.2% | -0.2% | 2.1% | 5.49 | 5.49 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 16 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 20.2% | -0.2% | 2.1% | 5.49 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 84 | 368 | 94 | 64 | 6 | — | — | 25.4% | 17.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | 4.68 | 4.54 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 19 | 79 | 16 | 16 | 2 | — | — | 20.0% | 20.2% | -0.2% | 2.1% | 5.49 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 61 | 56 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 19.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 5.36 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 60 | 54 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 18.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 5.30 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 59 | 51 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 18.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 5.31 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 39 | 36 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 19.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 5.36 | 5.35 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 18.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 5.30 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 49 | 43 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 18.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 5.31 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 165 | 0 | 173 | 734 | 150 | 139 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 19.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 5.49 | 5.01 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 849 | 173 | 161 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 19.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 5.49 | 5.01 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 152 | 81 | 366 | 1651 | 354 | 206 | 35 | 53% | 2.4 | 21.5% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 4.27 | 4.04 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 83 | 44 | 200 | 901 | 193 | 112 | 19 | 53% | 2.4 | 21.5% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 4.27 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Duran (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.49 | 20.0% | 20.2% | 2.1% | — | 5.33 | 20.7% | 2.1% | 206 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Brink R 2024 · 5.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.96 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 132 | 73 |
| Drake Fellows R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.70 | 17.1% | 20.4% | 2.7% | .367 | 4.86 | 16.3% | 5.6% | 215 | -0.84 | 4.58 | 226 | 72 |
| Lucas Erceg R 2027 · 5.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.74 | 17.1% | 18.1% | 3.3% | .258 | 3.41 | 25.1% | 13.7% | 193 | -2.33 | 2.09 | 339 | 69 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.87 | 17.6% | 15.6% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 118 | 67 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 67 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.04 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .270 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 42 | -1.57 | 3.47 | 146 | 66 |
| Josh Hansell R 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.18 | 17.6% | 16.1% | 2.8% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 169 | 66 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.56 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 259 | 66 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 65 |
| Grant Black R 2028 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 65 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 21.2% | 18.6% | 1.9% | .329 | 4.35 | 25.0% | 5.4% | 107 | -0.34 | 4.20 | 311 | 65 |
| Adrian Chaidez R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.68 | 19.4% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 144 | 64 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 64 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.43 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | .321 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 140 | -1.12 | 3.48 | 159 | 64 |
| Roberto Espinosa R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.62 | 14.5% | 15.6% | 1.4% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 117 | 63 |
| Elian Rodriguez R 2025 · 5.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.43 | 18.3% | 21.9% | 2.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.43 | 109 | 63 |
| Paul Clemens R 2028 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 63 |
| Brady Schanuel R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.65 | 17.9% | 23.5% | 2.0% | .200 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 132 | 63 |
| Danny Reynolds R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.74 | 16.6% | 16.8% | 1.7% | .263 | 3.67 | 16.0% | 4.3% | 88 | -1.07 | 3.29 | 165 | 62 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 63 | 20.6% | 18.9% | 0.87 | 5.35 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |