Carlos Duran — OGILVIE

Carlos Duran P Oklahoma City Comets

+0.0 WAR

Age 25 RHP 6'7" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

xFIP34.76

SIERA20.43

K%21.6%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%6.5%

IP59

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.2peak

2026

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5050

SL (22%)

SI (33%)

FB-1.3 (78%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	17	ROK	DSL Dodgers Robinson	12	12	42	157	30	3	1	13.0%	2.4%	0.9%	1.50	2.79	+1.0
2019	18	ROK	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	13	13	40	184	39	20	3	14.4%	13.6%	2.3%	4.24	4.86	+0.0
2021	20	A+	Great Lakes Loons	22	20	81	378	115	30	9	23.7%	8.3%	3.6%	5.56	4.12	+0.9
2022	21	A+	Great Lakes Loons	15	14	50	215	69	24	6	24.8%	13.1%	3.5%	4.17	4.58	+0.2
2024	23	AAA	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	19	19	53	248	73	32	4	22.9%	13.6%	1.9%	3.71	3.93	+0.6
2025	24	MLB	Athletics	39	2	63	299	67	58	2	20.1%	19.6%	0.6%	5.43	4.25	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	6	1	6	33	9	7	2	—	—	—	7.11	—	—
ROS	25	MLB	LAD	59	—	59	250	52	44	5	21.0%	17.8%	2.1%	5.12	5.12	-0.1
2026 Total	25	MLB	LAD	—	—	65	283	61	51	7	21.7%	18.2%	2.6%	5.31	4.62	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	26	MLB	LAD	59	—	59	250	53	42	5	21.4%	16.9%	2.2%	5.02	5.02	-0.0
2028	27	MLB	LAD	59	—	59	248	54	40	6	21.6%	16.3%	2.3%	4.97	4.97	-0.0
2029	28	MLB	LAD	58	—	58	244	53	39	6	21.6%	16.0%	2.3%	4.96	4.97	-0.0
2030	29	MLB	LAD	56	—	56	239	51	38	6	21.6%	15.9%	2.4%	4.97	5.00	-0.0
2031	30	MLB	LAD	55	—	55	231	49	37	6	21.3%	16.0%	2.5%	5.02	5.06	-0.1
2032	31	MLB	LAD	53	—	53	223	47	36	6	21.1%	16.1%	2.5%	5.09	5.13	-0.1
2033	32	MLB	LAD	51	—	51	214	45	35	6	20.8%	16.3%	2.6%	5.17	5.22	-0.2
2034	33	MLB	LAD	48	—	48	205	42	34	6	20.5%	16.5%	2.7%	5.26	5.31	-0.2
2035	34	MLB	LAD	46	—	46	195	39	32	5	20.2%	16.7%	2.8%	5.36	5.42	-0.2
2036	35	MLB	LAD	43	—	43	183	36	31	5	19.8%	16.9%	2.9%	5.47	5.55	-0.3
2037	36	MLB	LAD	41	—	41	171	33	29	5	19.4%	17.1%	3.0%	5.60	5.68	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			126	81	336	1514	316	188	35	20.9%	12.4%	2.3%	4.40	4.19	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—			75	48	200	902	188	112	21	20.9%	12.4%	2.3%	4.40	4.19	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Duran (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	21.0%	17.8%	2.1%	—	4.99	21.5%	5.1%	176	-0.13	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	18.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.278	4.34	18.8%	5.8%	90	-0.63	4.05	164	73
Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.26 FIP	25	SU	5.26	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.24	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.02	5.24	116	72
Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.59 FIP	25	SW	4.59	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.54	16.5%	2.8%	182	-0.05	3.49	237	72
Yordy Cabrera R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.14	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.85	3.41	159	72
Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	25	SW	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	103	72
Jack Neely R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	25	SU	5.00	24.2%	19.2%	2.7%	.219	—	—	—	—	—	2.77	193	72
Yaramil Hiraldo R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	25	SU	4.86	18.5%	15.5%	2.5%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	137	72
Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.77	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.73	3.77	108	71
Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	19.0%	15.0%	1.8%	.326	4.50	20.2%	0.2%	47	+0.11	4.39	178	71
Drake Fellows R 2026 · 5.65 FIP	25	SU	5.65	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.60	16.8%	5.6%	177	-1.05	4.40	188	71
JD Hammer R 2026 · 4.76 FIP	25	SW	4.76	19.8%	12.8%	3.1%	.298	4.91	22.9%	9.9%	91	+0.15	1.72	285	71
Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	25	SW	4.50	21.4%	19.3%	1.4%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	168	71
Bubby Rossman R 2025 · 4.28 FIP	24	SU	4.28	16.1%	13.4%	1.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	182	71
Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.29	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.13	4.92	103	71
Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.12 FIP	25	SU	5.12	21.1%	17.2%	2.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	104	71
Danny Reynolds R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	16.6%	16.8%	1.6%	.263	3.70	16.0%	4.3%	88	-1.02	3.29	165	71
Aaron Holiday R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	20.8%	16.6%	2.3%	.188	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	116	70
Fernando Baez R 2026 · 5.36 FIP	25	SW	5.36	24.3%	21.2%	2.9%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	70
Jordan Brink R 2024 · 5.96 FIP	23	SU	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	132	70
Derek Eitel R 2028 · 4.34 FIP	27	SU	4.34	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.29	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.05	4.00	138	70

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.