Carlos Duran

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 26 RHP 6'7" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	19	19	53	3.71	3.14	29.4%	12.9%	—	K 22.9% · BB 13.6% · FIP 3.94
2025	24	MIX2 levels	39	2	63	5.43	4.15	22.4%	19.4%	0.3	K 19.6% · BB 16.8% · FIP 3.92
2026	25	MIX2 levels	51	2	56	3.23	2.78	30.9%	14.8%	1.2	K 27.2% · BB 12.8% · FIP 2.91
2027PROJ	26	MLBKC	44	0	46	4.47	4.47	25.8%	16.2%	0.0
2028PROJ77% MLB	27	MLBKC	40	0	42	4.47	4.49	25.5%	15.6%	0.0
2029PROJ84% MLB	28	MLBKC	38	0	40	4.52	4.56	25.2%	15.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsSean Isaac (age 25) · Jon Duplantier (age 25) · Preston Johnson (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%25.8%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers Robinson	12	12	42	157	30	3	1	100%	3.5	13.0%	2.4%	10.6%	0.9%	1.50	2.79	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers Robinson	12	12	42	157	30	3	1	100%	3.5	19.1%	1.9%	17.2%	0.6%	1.50	2.20	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	13	13	40	184	39	20	3	100%	3.1	14.4%	13.6%	0.8%	2.3%	4.24	4.86	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	13	13	40	184	39	20	3	100%	3.1	21.2%	10.9%	10.3%	1.6%	4.24	3.62	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	81	378	115	30	9	91%	3.7	23.7%	8.3%	15.4%	3.6%	5.56	4.11	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	81	378	115	30	9	91%	3.7	30.4%	7.9%	22.5%	2.4%	5.56	2.82	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	50	215	69	24	6	93%	3.3	24.8%	13.1%	11.7%	3.5%	4.17	4.59	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	50	215	69	24	6	93%	3.3	32.1%	11.2%	20.9%	2.8%	4.17	3.34	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	53	248	73	32	4	100%	2.8	22.9%	13.6%	9.3%	1.9%	3.71	3.94	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	53	248	73	32	4	100%	2.8	22.9%	13.6%	9.3%	1.9%	3.71	3.94	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	53	248	73	32	4	100%	2.8	29.4%	12.9%	16.5%	1.6%	3.71	3.14	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	63	299	67	58	2	5%	1.6	19.6%	16.8%	2.8%	0.6%	5.43	3.92	+0.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	63	299	67	58	2	5%	1.6	19.6%	16.8%	2.8%	0.6%	5.43	3.92	+0.5
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	2	63	299	67	58	2	5%	1.6	22.4%	19.4%	3.0%	0.7%	5.43	4.15	+0.3
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	2	56	256	79	38	2	4%	1.1	27.2%	12.8%	14.4%	0.9%	3.23	2.91	+1.1
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	2	56	256	79	38	2	4%	1.1	27.2%	12.8%	14.4%	0.9%	3.23	2.91	+1.1
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	2	56	256	79	38	2	4%	1.1	30.9%	14.8%	16.0%	0.8%	3.23	2.78	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	2	14	1	6	0	0%	0.6	7.1%	42.9%	-35.7%	0.0%	27.00	12.70	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	KC	44	0	46	194	50	31	4	0%	1.0	25.8%	16.2%	9.6%	2.0%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	KC	52	0	54	230	59	36	5	0%	1.0	25.5%	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	4.47	4.49	+0.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	KC	45	0	47	200	50	30	5	0%	1.1	25.2%	15.2%	10.0%	2.3%	4.52	4.56	-0.0
2030	29	MLB MLE	KC	40	0	42	179	45	27	5	0%	1.1	24.9%	15.2%	9.8%	2.5%	4.61	4.68	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	KC	40	0	42	177	45	28	4	0%	1.1	25.5%	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	4.47	4.49	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	KC	38	0	40	169	43	26	4	0%	1.1	25.2%	15.2%	10.0%	2.3%	4.52	4.56	-0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	KC	35	0	37	156	39	24	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	15.2%	9.8%	2.5%	4.61	4.68	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	0	121	517	128	83	12	0%	1.0	24.8%	16.1%	8.7%	2.3%	4.84	4.29	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	0	200	856	212	137	20	0%	1.0	24.8%	16.1%	8.7%	2.3%	4.84	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		171	82	385	1737	375	205	36	48%	2.3	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	2.0%	4.18	3.90	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	43	200	902	195	107	18	48%	2.3	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	2.0%	4.18	3.90	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 54 IPFIP 2.67 → 2.91 (+0.24)K% 31.6% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.58%	—	×0.860	27.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.17%	—	×0.900	12.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 63 IPFIP 3.92 → 3.92 (+0.01)K% 22.8% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.79%	—	×0.860	19.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.71%	—	×0.900	16.84%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷1.183	×1.100	0.63%

Result: FIP 3.92 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATulsa Drillers · 38 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.72 (+0.69)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.810	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.23%	—	×1.100	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.70%	÷1.063	×1.200	1.92%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 14 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.54 (+1.31)K% 33.8% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.85%	—	×0.740	25.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.92%	—	×1.180	19.97%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.072	×1.300	1.87%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Great Lakes Loons · 49 IPFIP 3.38 → 4.59 (+1.21)K% 32.2% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.23%	—	×0.770	24.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.37%	—	×1.150	13.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.84%	÷1.013	×1.250	3.51%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.38 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 74 IPFIP 2.74 → 4.11 (+1.37)K% 32.1% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.06%	—	×0.740	23.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.06%	—	×1.180	8.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷0.965	×1.300	3.57%

Result: FIP 2.74 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Great Lakes Loons · 7 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.37 (+0.61)K% 15.8% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.79%	—	×0.770	12.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×1.150	18.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.930	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Dodgers Lasorda · 40 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.86 (+1.27)K% 21.2% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.20%	—	×0.680	14.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.250	13.59%
HR / BF /BF	1.63%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.28%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Duran (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.0%	—	4.57	25.3%	9.9%	144	+0.10	—	—	—
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	66
Jon Duplantier R 2019 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP-	3.54	22.0%	14.0%	0.9%	.327	5.74	21.8%	8.1%	107	+2.20	3.10	435	65
Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SU	3.94	23.7%	18.2%	1.0%	.331	5.04	22.6%	10.5%	137	+1.10	3.94	193	65
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	63
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	62
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	62
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	61
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	61
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	61
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	61
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	61
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	61
Robinson Leyer R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	26	SU	3.81	23.3%	15.6%	1.3%	.355	6.05	21.2%	5.8%	45	+2.24	3.60	422	60
Steve Johnson R 2013 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	27.4%	16.4%	2.5%	.308	2.90	26.6%	17.8%	93	-1.33	2.22	206	60
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	60
Ryan Jensen R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	26.6%	17.2%	1.6%	.331	4.35	21.9%	5.6%	50	+0.43	3.92	311	60
Lucas Erceg R 2021 · 5.61 FIP	26	SP-	5.61	17.1%	18.1%	3.0%	.258	3.36	25.0%	13.8%	193	-2.25	2.10	351	60
Trent Sellers R 2024 · 3.41 FIP	24	SW	3.41	23.4%	13.2%	1.1%	.211	4.63	22.6%	8.7%	175	+1.22	3.41	257	60
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.09	246	60
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	54	25.2%	16.0%	0.85	4.68
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Matt Mantei ('05)	1.6	54	28.0%	14.1%	0.84	4.07
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*