Carlos Duran — OGILVIE

Carlos Duran P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 25 RHP 6'7" / 230 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%19.1%

BB%18.1%

K-BB%1.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†4550

SL (22%)

SI (33%)

FB-1.3 (78%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers Robinson	12	12	42	157	30	3	1	100%	3.5	13.0%	2.4%	10.6%	0.9%	1.50	2.79	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers Robinson	12	12	42	157	30	3	1	100%	3.5	19.1%	1.9%	17.2%	0.6%	1.50	2.20	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	13	13	40	184	39	20	3	100%	3.1	14.4%	13.6%	0.8%	2.3%	4.24	4.86	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	13	13	40	184	39	20	3	100%	3.1	21.2%	10.9%	10.3%	1.6%	4.24	3.62	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	81	378	115	30	9	91%	3.7	23.7%	8.3%	15.4%	3.6%	5.56	4.11	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	81	378	115	30	9	91%	3.7	30.4%	7.9%	22.5%	2.4%	5.56	2.82	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	50	215	69	24	6	93%	3.3	24.8%	13.1%	11.7%	3.5%	4.17	4.59	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	50	215	69	24	6	93%	3.3	32.1%	11.2%	20.9%	2.8%	4.17	3.34	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	53	248	73	32	4	100%	2.8	22.9%	13.6%	9.3%	1.9%	3.71	3.94	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	53	248	73	32	4	100%	2.8	22.9%	13.6%	9.3%	1.9%	3.71	3.94	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	53	248	73	32	4	100%	2.8	29.4%	12.9%	16.5%	1.6%	3.71	3.14	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	63	299	67	58	2	5%	1.6	18.9%	16.8%	2.1%	0.6%	5.43	3.98	+0.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	63	299	67	58	2	5%	1.6	18.9%	16.8%	2.1%	0.6%	5.43	3.98	+0.4
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	2	63	299	67	58	2	5%	1.6	22.4%	19.4%	3.0%	0.7%	5.43	4.15	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	2	14	1	6	0	0%	0.6	7.1%	42.9%	-35.7%	0.0%	27.00	12.70	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	48	2	53	245	73	36	2	4%	1.1	25.3%	12.6%	12.7%	0.9%	3.42	3.07	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	48	2	53	245	73	36	2	4%	1.1	25.3%	12.6%	12.7%	0.9%	3.42	3.07	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	KC	46	2	51	236	72	33	2	4%	1.1	30.5%	14.0%	16.5%	0.8%	3.16	2.76	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	KC	2	0	1	9	1	3	0	0%	0.7	11.1%	33.3%	-22.2%	0.0%	13.50	6.38	—
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	KC	2	0	1	9	1	3	0	0%	0.7	11.1%	33.3%	-22.2%	0.0%	13.50	6.38	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	KC	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	18.1%	1.0%	2.1%	5.31	5.31	-0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	KC	6	0	6	25	5	5	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	18.1%	1.0%	2.1%	5.31	5.31	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	59	270	78	40	3	—	—	28.8%	15.0%	13.8%	0.9%	3.61	3.29	+0.9
FULL	25	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	7	30	78	40	3	—	—	256.3%	133.4%	122.8%	8.3%	29.38	2.92	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	KC	67	0	70	296	58	51	6	0%	1.0	19.8%	17.2%	2.6%	2.2%	5.20	5.19	-0.5
2028	27	MLB MLE	KC	66	0	69	291	58	49	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	16.7%	3.4%	2.3%	5.15	5.17	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	KC	64	0	67	282	57	46	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	16.4%	3.6%	2.4%	5.17	5.21	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	270	54	44	7	0%	1.0	19.9%	16.5%	3.4%	2.6%	5.25	5.32	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	KC	63	0	66	279	55	48	6	0%	1.0	19.8%	17.2%	2.6%	2.2%	5.20	5.19	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	KC	63	0	66	279	56	46	6	0%	1.0	20.0%	16.7%	3.4%	2.3%	5.15	5.17	-0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	KC	61	0	64	270	54	44	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	16.4%	3.6%	2.4%	5.17	5.21	-0.5
2030	29	MLB CTX	KC	58	0	61	258	51	42	7	0%	1.1	19.9%	16.5%	3.4%	2.6%	5.25	5.32	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		253	0	264	1121	221	191	26	0%	1.0	19.7%	17.0%	2.7%	2.3%	5.33	4.88	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	850	168	145	20	0%	1.0	19.7%	17.0%	2.7%	2.3%	5.33	4.88	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		168	82	382	1726	365	203	36	49%	2.3	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	2.1%	4.22	3.93	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	43	200	904	191	106	19	49%	2.3	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	2.1%	4.22	3.93	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Duran (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	19.1%	18.1%	2.1%	—	5.19	19.9%	3.2%	206	-0.12	—	—	—
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	74
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.91	14.2%	5.1%	266	-0.75	4.32	277	73
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	70
Alex Amalfi R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	19.9%	18.5%	0.9%	.300	4.43	22.7%	10.8%	249	+0.19	2.67	299	69
Lucas Erceg R 2021 · 5.61 FIP	26	SP-	5.61	17.1%	18.1%	3.0%	.258	3.37	25.0%	13.8%	193	-2.24	2.10	346	68
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	68
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	68
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	67
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	66
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	66
Roberto Espinosa R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	14.5%	15.6%	1.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	117	66
Bubby Rossman R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	24	SU	4.28	16.1%	13.4%	1.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	182	66
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	66
Danny Reynolds R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	16.6%	16.8%	1.6%	.263	3.71	16.0%	4.3%	88	-1.01	3.29	165	66
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	65
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	65
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	65
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	65
Tanner Kohlhepp R 2023 · 4.27 FIP	24	SW	4.27	26.0%	26.6%	0.0%	.255	3.72	22.3%	12.8%	151	-0.55	3.25	174	65
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	19.8%	17.0%	0.90	5.21
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99