Justin Martinez

P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANExtFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	70	0	79	2.50	2.19	31.2%	9.8%	2.3	K 29.5% · BB 9.7% · FIP 2.22
2025	24	MIX3 levels	19	1	17	3.63	3.10	31.5%	15.1%	0.3	K 32.8% · BB 16.4% · FIP 3.27
2026	25	MIX3 levels	19	2	17	1.56	2.23	35.3%	16.2%	0.5	K 32.7% · BB 18.2% · FIP 2.64
2027PROJ	26	MLBARI	61	0	64	3.37	3.37	35.8%	14.1%	0.9
2028PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBARI	56	0	59	3.33	3.34	35.8%	14.2%	0.8
2029PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBARI	55	0	58	3.38	3.42	35.6%	14.3%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.128First FA2031Options4Super-2

2027Ext$4M2028Ext$4M2029Ext$4M2030Ext$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs90

Whiff%81

CompsPete Fairbanks (age 26) · Jon Edwards (age 27) · Robert Coello (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9789vR 81

ERA3.37

FIP3.37

K%35.8%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%21.6%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3030

CMD5555

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p90101.6

Whiff%

p8130.2%

p9032.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.229

FB+0.6 (60%)

SI (40%)

SL (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.128 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$4M	+0.9	$4M	+$0.0M
2028	Ext	$4M	+0.8	$3M	-$0.3M
2029	Ext	$4M	+0.8	$3M	-$0.2M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$11M		$9M	-$0.4M

Options · projected decision
2030	CLUB OPT	$8.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$7.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	CLUB OPT	$9.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2033	CLUB OPT	$3.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 2	15	12	44	232	30	38	3	80%	2.9	8.8%	20.5%	-11.7%	1.8%	7.57	5.94	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 2	15	12	44	232	30	38	3	80%	2.9	12.9%	16.4%	-3.4%	1.3%	7.57	5.21	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	15	10	52	236	71	33	0	67%	3.5	20.5%	17.5%	3.0%	0.0%	3.12	3.59	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	15	10	52	236	71	33	0	67%	3.5	30.1%	14.0%	16.1%	0.0%	3.12	2.27	—
2021	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	7	7	23	107	24	15	1	100%	3.3	16.6%	16.5%	0.1%	1.3%	6.65	4.52	—
2021	20	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	7	7	23	107	24	15	1	100%	3.3	22.4%	14.0%	8.4%	0.9%	6.65	3.53	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	0	38	169	62	22	2	0%	1.9	29.7%	14.1%	15.6%	1.3%	3.32	3.09	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	0	38	169	62	22	2	0%	1.9	36.7%	13.0%	23.7%	1.2%	3.32	2.26	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	59	283	81	57	5	0%	1.0	25.3%	18.5%	6.8%	1.9%	5.61	4.35	+0.1
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	59	283	81	57	5	0%	1.0	28.6%	20.1%	8.5%	1.8%	5.61	4.35	+0.1
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	79	336	105	33	3	0%	1.1	29.5%	9.7%	19.8%	0.7%	2.50	2.22	+2.2
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	79	336	105	33	3	0%	1.1	29.5%	9.7%	19.8%	0.7%	2.50	2.22	+2.2
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	79	336	105	33	3	0%	1.1	31.2%	9.8%	21.4%	0.9%	2.50	2.19	+2.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	1	17	73	23	11	1	5%	0.9	32.8%	16.4%	16.4%	1.6%	3.63	3.27	+0.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	1	17	73	23	11	1	5%	0.9	32.8%	16.4%	16.4%	1.6%	3.63	3.27	+0.3
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	1	17	73	23	11	1	5%	0.9	31.5%	15.1%	16.4%	1.4%	3.63	3.10	+0.3
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	2	17	68	24	11	0	11%	0.9	32.7%	18.2%	14.5%	0.0%	1.56	2.64	+0.4
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	2	17	68	24	11	0	11%	0.9	32.7%	18.2%	14.5%	0.0%	1.56	2.64	+0.4
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	2	17	68	24	11	0	11%	0.9	35.3%	16.2%	19.1%	0.0%	1.56	2.23	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			106	0	111	487	145	61	5	0%	1.1	29.8%	12.5%	17.2%	1.0%	3.56	2.72	+2.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ARI	61	0	64	270	97	38	6	0%	1.0	35.8%	14.1%	21.6%	2.0%	3.37	3.37	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	60	0	62	264	94	37	6	0%	1.0	35.8%	14.2%	21.6%	2.1%	3.39	3.40	+0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	58	0	61	256	91	37	6	0%	1.0	35.6%	14.3%	21.3%	2.2%	3.45	3.49	+0.8
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	56	0	59	249	89	35	5	0%	1.1	35.8%	14.2%	21.6%	2.0%	3.33	3.34	+0.8
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	55	0	58	245	87	35	5	0%	1.1	35.6%	14.3%	21.3%	2.1%	3.38	3.42	+0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		217	0	228	981	321	131	15	0%	1.1	32.8%	13.4%	19.4%	1.5%	3.45	2.87	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	859	281	115	13	0%	1.1	32.8%	13.4%	19.4%	1.5%	3.45	2.87	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		222	32	330	1504	354	240	17	14%	1.5	23.5%	15.9%	7.6%	1.1%	4.22	3.74	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	19	200	911	214	145	10	14%	1.5	23.5%	15.9%	7.6%	1.1%	4.22	3.74	+3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.37	35.8%	14.1%	2.0%	—	3.44	35.7%	21.4%	123	+0.07	—	—	—
Pete Fairbanks R 2020 · 2.77 FIP	26	SU	2.77	33.3%	12.0%	1.8%	.339	2.00	35.6%	26.4%	112	-0.77	0.50	463	66
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	66
Robert Coello R 2013 · 2.56 FIP	28	SU	2.56	31.5%	11.0%	1.3%	.317	4.31	13.4%	2.8%	95	+1.75	2.56	112	64
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	64
Dan Altavilla R 2019 · 2.88 FIP	26	SU	2.88	31.7%	13.6%	1.3%	.263	4.34	27.0%	13.5%	20	+1.46	2.88	501	64
Reyes Moronta R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	26	SU	3.31	28.5%	13.0%	1.8%	.264	5.16	21.5%	5.3%	56	+1.85	3.06	361	64
Alex Lange R 2022 · 3.00 FIP	26	SU	3.00	30.3%	11.1%	1.9%	.273	3.86	26.3%	10.9%	108	+0.86	3.00	511	63
Trey Wingenter R 2019 · 3.17 FIP	25	SU	3.17	33.0%	12.8%	2.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	293	63
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	62
Ken Giles R 2017 · 2.25 FIP	26	SU	2.25	33.6%	8.5%	1.7%	.288	2.48	32.6%	27.1%	103	+0.23	0.92	414	62
Tucker Healy R 2016 · 2.82 FIP	26	SU	2.82	30.4%	10.5%	1.8%	.294	4.64	16.9%	5.8%	67	+1.82	2.82	174	62
Jordan Walden R 2014 · 2.73 FIP	26	SU	2.73	30.2%	12.7%	1.1%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	212	62
Eric Reyzelman R 2024 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	30.3%	15.6%	2.4%	.261	4.78	24.5%	8.6%	94	+0.97	3.81	117	61
Ray Black R 2016 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	30.0%	24.6%	0.9%	.281	3.88	34.6%	23.4%	94	-0.27	2.95	150	61
Ryne Stanek R 2017 · 3.05 FIP	26	SU	3.05	30.4%	10.0%	2.3%	.311	3.83	28.9%	18.4%	143	+0.78	2.96	771	61
Justin Anderson R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	27.6%	14.7%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	587	61
Mychal Givens R 2016 · 2.84 FIP	26	SU	2.84	30.7%	10.9%	1.7%	.299	3.27	28.3%	20.0%	218	+0.43	1.77	526	61
Josh Staumont R 2020 · 3.18 FIP	26	SU	3.18	33.0%	14.3%	1.9%	.316	3.61	26.4%	13.7%	123	+0.43	3.18	618	61
Hunter Bigge R 2024 · 3.38 FIP	26	SU	3.38	36.6%	8.7%	4.1%	.271	5.43	20.5%	7.2%	67	+2.05	3.38	232	61
Sam Tuivailala R 2019 · 2.76 FIP	26	SU	2.76	28.7%	11.7%	1.1%	.218	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	230	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	74	33.5%	14.2%	0.66	3.46
Carlos Marmol ('14)	2.9	72	29.5%	15.7%	0.76	3.57
John Rocker ('03)	1.3	51	29.4%	14.5%	0.81	3.42
Al Alburquerque ('17)	1.2	61	27.8%	12.9%	0.62	3.16
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Mark Clear ('79-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.0	80	33.4%*	15.2%*	0.78*	3.89*
Mark Littell ('73-'82, 7 WAR*)	2.7	66	30.7%*	13.4%*	0.74*	3.75*