Luis Devers — OGILVIE

Luis Devers P South Bend Cubs

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 178 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%18.6%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%5.4%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 2	14	13	55	239	48	19	2	93%	4.0	13.7%	9.9%	3.7%	1.2%	2.60	3.85	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs 2	14	13	55	239	48	19	2	93%	4.0	20.1%	7.9%	12.1%	0.8%	2.60	2.87	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 2	14	14	64	263	61	14	2	100%	4.6	15.8%	6.7%	9.1%	1.1%	2.66	3.20	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs 2	14	14	64	263	61	14	2	100%	4.6	23.2%	5.3%	17.9%	0.8%	2.66	2.26	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	54	231	59	17	3	79%	3.9	17.2%	8.2%	9.0%	1.9%	3.48	3.75	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	54	231	59	17	3	79%	3.9	25.5%	7.4%	18.2%	1.3%	3.48	2.58	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	118	456	122	26	4	85%	4.5	20.1%	6.6%	13.5%	1.2%	1.91	2.90	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	118	456	122	26	4	85%	4.5	26.8%	5.7%	21.1%	0.9%	1.91	2.13	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	15	14	56	250	62	32	4	93%	3.8	19.1%	14.7%	4.4%	1.7%	5.11	4.27	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	15	14	56	250	62	32	4	93%	3.8	19.1%	14.7%	4.4%	1.7%	5.11	4.27	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	15	14	56	250	62	32	4	93%	3.8	24.8%	12.8%	12.0%	1.6%	5.11	3.53	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	5	61	282	59	34	2	18%	2.2	15.6%	14.1%	1.5%	1.0%	5.34	4.10	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	5	61	282	59	34	2	18%	2.2	15.6%	14.1%	1.5%	1.0%	5.34	4.10	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	5	61	282	59	34	2	18%	2.2	20.9%	12.1%	8.9%	0.7%	5.34	3.26	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CHC	1	1	3	13	2	2	0	100%	3.0	18.6%	13.2%	5.4%	2.8%	5.11	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	54	227	43	29	6	100%	6.0	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	2.9%	5.05	5.07	-0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	52	220	42	28	7	100%	5.8	19.2%	12.7%	6.5%	3.0%	5.06	5.10	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	3	3	20	84	16	11	2	100%	6.7	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	2.9%	5.05	5.07	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	31	131	25	17	4	100%	6.2	19.2%	12.7%	6.5%	3.0%	5.06	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	50	213	41	27	6	100%	6.3	19.2%	12.8%	6.4%	2.9%	5.06	4.71	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	162	107	24	100%	6.0	19.2%	12.8%	6.4%	2.9%	5.06	4.71	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		111	79	409	1721	297	167	22	71%	3.7	17.3%	9.7%	7.6%	1.3%	3.28	3.59	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	39	200	842	145	82	11	71%	3.7	17.3%	9.7%	7.6%	1.3%	3.28	3.59	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Devers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	18.6%	13.2%	2.8%	—	5.08	19.1%	6.3%	106	-0.03	—	—	—
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	81
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	79
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	78
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	78
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	78
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	77
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	77
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	77
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	76
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	76
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	76
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	75
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	75
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	75
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	74
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	74
Tony Dibrell R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	26	SP-	4.96	23.8%	17.4%	3.0%	.314	8.67	12.7%	-1.7%	29	+3.71	4.18	347	74
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	74
Phillippe Aumont R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	5.01	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.40	4.61	147	74
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	19.0%	12.9%	1.11	5.07
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91