Carlos Guarate prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Carlos Guarate P Stockton Ports

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 178 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%20.8%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP46

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	8	4	27	105	20	7	1	50%	3.4	13.0%	8.3%	4.6%	1.3%	2.33	3.79	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	8	4	27	105	20	7	1	50%	3.4	19.0%	6.7%	12.4%	1.0%	2.33	2.88	—
2019	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	49	200	43	13	0	83%	4.1	14.1%	8.2%	5.9%	0.0%	2.22	2.95	—
2019	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	49	200	43	13	0	83%	4.1	21.5%	6.5%	15.0%	0.0%	2.22	2.13	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	99	436	77	24	12	74%	4.3	13.2%	6.4%	6.8%	3.9%	5.91	4.94	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	17	99	436	77	24	12	74%	4.3	17.7%	5.5%	12.2%	2.8%	5.91	3.85	—
2022	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	26	15	90	403	69	28	16	58%	3.5	12.7%	8.2%	4.5%	5.1%	5.68	5.89	—
2022	21	A RAW	Stockton Ports	26	15	90	403	69	28	16	58%	3.5	17.1%	6.9%	10.2%	4.0%	5.68	4.80	—
2023	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	36	1	65	298	58	25	12	3%	1.8	14.4%	9.9%	4.5%	5.5%	5.95	6.18	—
2023	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	36	1	65	298	58	25	12	3%	1.8	14.4%	9.9%	4.5%	5.5%	5.95	6.18	—
2023	22	A RAW	Stockton Ports	36	1	65	298	58	25	12	3%	1.8	19.5%	8.4%	11.1%	4.0%	5.95	4.87	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	9.6%	11.3%	3.1%	4.62	4.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	OAK	43	0	46	192	41	18	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.56	-0.0
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	43	0	45	189	41	18	6	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.57	4.58	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	OAK	18	0	19	80	17	8	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.56	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	27	0	28	118	25	11	4	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.57	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	48	201	43	19	6	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.57	4.19	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	80	25	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.57	4.19	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		105	47	330	1442	194	116	56	45%	3.1	13.4%	8.0%	5.4%	3.9%	5.02	5.10	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	28	200	874	117	70	34	45%	3.1	13.4%	8.0%	5.4%	3.9%	5.02	5.10	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Guarate (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	20.8%	9.6%	3.1%	—	4.57	21.4%	11.9%	90	-0.05	—	—	—
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	87
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	85
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	81
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	81
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	81
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	81
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	81
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	81
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	80
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	79
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	79
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	78
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	78
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,024	78
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	77
David Phelps R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	25	SW	3.98	23.2%	8.7%	3.2%	.250	3.86	18.3%	10.1%	312	-0.12	2.50	672	77
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	21.2%	9.5%	1.19	4.59
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01