Carlos Guarate
P
Stockton Ports
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 178 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 45 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%22.8%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP46
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | 8 | 4 | 27 | 105 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 50% | 3.4 | 13.0% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 2.33 | 3.79 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | 8 | 4 | 27 | 105 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 50% | 3.4 | 19.0% | 6.7% | 12.4% | 1.0% | 2.33 | 2.88 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 49 | 200 | 43 | 13 | 0 | 83% | 4.1 | 14.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 2.22 | 2.95 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 49 | 200 | 43 | 13 | 0 | 83% | 4.1 | 21.5% | 6.5% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 2.22 | 2.13 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 17 | 99 | 436 | 77 | 24 | 12 | 74% | 4.3 | 13.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.91 | 5.32 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 17 | 99 | 436 | 77 | 24 | 12 | 74% | 4.3 | 17.7% | 5.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 5.91 | 3.85 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | 26 | 15 | 90 | 403 | 69 | 28 | 16 | 58% | 3.5 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.68 | 5.89 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | 26 | 15 | 90 | 403 | 69 | 28 | 16 | 58% | 3.5 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 5.68 | 4.80 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | 36 | 1 | 65 | 298 | 58 | 25 | 12 | 3% | 1.8 | 14.4% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.95 | 6.37 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | 36 | 1 | 65 | 298 | 58 | 25 | 12 | 3% | 1.8 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 5.95 | 4.87 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 43 | 0 | 46 | 192 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 43 | 0 | 46 | 192 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 41 | 0 | 44 | 184 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 0 | 80 | 339 | 78 | 32 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.06 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 80 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 105 | 47 | 330 | 1442 | 194 | 116 | 60 | 45% | 3.1 | 13.4% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.02 | 5.26 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 28 | 200 | 874 | 117 | 70 | 36 | 45% | 3.1 | 13.4% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.02 | 5.26 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Guarate (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.43 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 134 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 84 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 84 |
| Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 83 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 82 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 79 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 78 |
| Michael King R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.55 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 3.8% | .316 | 2.73 | 28.3% | 20.8% | 219 | -1.82 | 1.96 | 948 | 78 |
| Noah Bremer R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 77 |
| Tristan Stevens R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .411 | 3.71 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 91 | -0.57 | 3.71 | 126 | 77 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 77 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 77 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.51 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 1.3% | .285 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 59 | +1.18 | 3.51 | 123 | 76 |
| Jake Lyons R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 174 | 75 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 75 |
| Chase Centala R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 75 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .273 | 4.29 | 23.1% | 14.9% | 172 | -0.12 | 3.36 | 432 | 75 |
| Cole Sands R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.60 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 4.0% | .358 | 3.05 | 25.5% | 19.0% | 196 | -1.55 | 2.28 | 473 | 74 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 74 |
| Greyfer Eregua R 2024 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.85 | 18.3% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 126 | 74 |
| Phil Klein R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 45 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 1.21 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |