Josh Crouch
C Rocket City Trash Pandas| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | A+DET | 238 | .210/.287/.341 | 6 | 1 | 34 | — | .169/.232/.274 |
| 2025 | 26 | AALAA | 232 | .218/.316/.411 | 9 | 0 | 54 | — | .176/.251/.329 |
| 2026 | 27 | AALAA | 26 | .174/.240/.304 | 1 | 0 | 14 | — | .167/.200/.292 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBLAA | 2 | .203/.266/.342 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBLAA | 27 | .202/.266/.339 | 1 | 0 | 70 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 97 | 87 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 272 | 333 | 605 | 103 | 310 | 32 | 5 | 258 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 24 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 167 | 292 | 458 | 125 | 176 | 25 | 0 | 200 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 382 | 335 | 97 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 56 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 290 | 370 | 445 | 815 | 155 | 319 | 15 | 10 | 361 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 43 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 429 | 417 | 845 | 83 | 444 | 23 | 12 | 377 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 58 | 52 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 259 | 288 | 547 | 115 | 258 | 34 | 9 | 253 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 292 | 260 | 65 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 69 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 330 | 331 | 661 | 81 | 328 | 24 | 9 | 304 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 238 | 214 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 60 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 287 | 341 | 628 | 131 | 262 | 25 | 7 | 285 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 232 | 202 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 71 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 218 | 316 | 411 | 727 | 193 | 285 | 31 | 10 | 325 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 26 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 240 | 304 | 544 | 130 | 214 | 35 | 8 | 238 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 97 | 89 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 217 | 292 | 510 | 101 | 263 | 44 | 3 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 24 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 167 | 292 | 458 | 125 | 165 | 29 | 0 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 382 | 347 | 85 | 20 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 74 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 307 | 380 | 687 | 135 | 279 | 19 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 43 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 316 | 649 | 53 | 390 | 33 | 7 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 58 | 54 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 190 | 222 | 412 | 93 | 244 | 45 | 5 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 292 | 268 | 55 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 87 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 268 | 276 | 544 | 71 | 283 | 30 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 238 | 219 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 80 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 232 | 274 | 506 | 105 | 229 | 34 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 232 | 210 | 37 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 86 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 176 | 251 | 329 | 580 | 152 | 247 | 37 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 26 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 200 | 292 | 492 | 125 | 188 | 42 | 4 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 97 | 89 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 217 | 292 | 510 | 101 | 312 | 44 | 3 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 97 | 87 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 272 | 333 | 605 | 103 | 310 | 32 | 5 | 258 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 449 | 409 | 99 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 96 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 242 | 302 | 369 | 671 | 127 | 289 | 21 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 449 | 395 | 113 | 25 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 72 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 286 | 365 | 433 | 798 | 147 | 322 | 16 | 10 | 354 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 322 | 62 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 113 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 255 | 258 | 513 | 65 | 285 | 32 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 350 | 312 | 74 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 89 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 237 | 318 | 324 | 642 | 87 | 318 | 25 | 9 | 295 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 238 | 219 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 80 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 232 | 274 | 506 | 105 | 237 | 34 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 238 | 214 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 60 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 287 | 341 | 628 | 131 | 262 | 25 | 7 | 285 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 232 | 210 | 37 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 86 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 176 | 251 | 329 | 580 | 152 | 254 | 37 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 232 | 202 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 71 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 218 | 316 | 411 | 727 | 193 | 285 | 31 | 10 | 325 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 26 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 200 | 292 | 492 | 125 | 231 | 42 | 4 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA RAW | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 26 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 240 | 304 | 544 | 130 | 214 | 35 | 8 | 238 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 97 | 94 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 181 | 217 | 277 | 494 | 96 | 263 | 44 | 3 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 449 | 411 | 99 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 96 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 241 | 302 | 367 | 669 | 127 | 284 | 21 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 320 | 62 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 113 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 255 | 259 | 514 | 66 | 277 | 32 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 238 | 218 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 80 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 170 | 232 | 275 | 507 | 106 | 229 | 34 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 232 | 209 | 37 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 86 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 177 | 251 | 330 | 581 | 153 | 247 | 37 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 26 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 200 | 280 | 480 | 120 | 188 | 42 | 4 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 238 | 218 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 80 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 170 | 232 | 275 | 507 | 106 | 229 | 34 | 5 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 232 | 209 | 37 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 86 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 177 | 251 | 330 | 581 | 153 | 247 | 37 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 26 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 200 | 280 | 480 | 120 | 188 | 42 | 4 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | LAA | 2% | 200 | 182 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 60 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 204 | 267 | 344 | 610 | 140 | 268 | 30 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | LAA | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 266 | 342 | 608 | 140 | 266 | 50 | 0 | 272 | 71 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAA | 23% | 120 | 109 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 267 | 341 | 607 | 137 | 268 | 30 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -4 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAA | 23% | 27 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 266 | 339 | 605 | 137 | 266 | 30 | 7 | 271 | 70 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 27 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 259 | 360 | 619 | 160 | 250 | 30 | 7 | 271 | 56 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 120 | 24 | 0 | 24 | 48 | 193 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 258 | 359 | 617 | 159 | 249 | 30 | 7 | 271 | 56 | -23 | +0 | -8 | +12 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1596 | 1460 | 293 | 60 | 2 | 33 | 93 | 490 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 201 | 262 | 312 | 574 | 112 | 273 | 31 | 6 | 251 | 56 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +4 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 119 | 24 | 1 | 13 | 38 | 200 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 261 | 309 | 570 | 109 | 273 | 31 | 6 | 251 | 56 | -23 | +0 | -4 | +12 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 26 PAwOBA .241 → .189 (−52)K% 34.6% → 42.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.62% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 5.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 19.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 5.53% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .241 → .189; ISO .130 → .099; BABIP .214 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 232 PAwOBA .318 → .248 (−69)K% 30.6% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.60% | ÷1.011 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 6.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.56% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 14.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.16% | ÷0.929 | ×0.910 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 8.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.880 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.87% | ÷1.028 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 5.23% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 110, 2B 86, 3B 106, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .318 → .248; ISO .193 → .153; BABIP .285 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 238 PAwOBA .279 → .219 (−60)K% 25.2% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.21% | ÷0.957 | ×1.270 | — | — | 33.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.72% | ÷1.026 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 4.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 2.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.83% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×0.968 | 16.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.49% | ÷0.892 | ×0.810 | ×1.007 | ×0.968 | 5.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.007 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.90% | ÷0.889 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 3.40% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 104, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .279 → .219; ISO .131 → .106; BABIP .262 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 292 PAwOBA .296 → .237 (−59)K% 23.6% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.63% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.22% | ÷0.993 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 5.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.05% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 1.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.70% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×0.978 | 23.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.24% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | ×0.973 | ×0.978 | 4.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.973 | ×0.978 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.57% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.39% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .296 → .237; ISO .081 → .064; BABIP .328 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 58 PAwOBA .247 → .188 (−58)K% 34.5% → 44.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.48% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.62% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.62% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.998 | 15.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷0.924 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 8.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.145 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.31% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 129, K 89, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .247 → .188; ISO .115 → .084; BABIP .258 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 382 PAwOBA .356 → .300 (−55)K% 14.7% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.66% | ÷0.956 | ×1.270 | — | — | 19.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.95% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.30% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×0.988 | 20.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷0.876 | ×0.810 | ×0.987 | ×0.988 | 7.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.987 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.58% | ÷0.847 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.34% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .356 → .300; ISO .155 → .142; BABIP .319 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 43 PAwOBA .377 → .302 (−75)K% 23.3% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.26% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.63% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 7.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 1.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.62% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 30.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷0.974 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 9.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.279 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 108, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .377 → .302; ISO .083 → .067; BABIP .444 → .390. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 24 PAwOBA .194 → .162 (−32)K% 25.0% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 15.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 4.73% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .194 → .162; ISO .125 → .099; BABIP .176 → .165. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).