Jan Mercado — OGILVIE

Jan MercadoC Senadores de San Juan

Age 26 R/R 6'0" / 218 lbs INTL HR -4%BB +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.2 · 2027

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .267 / .315

PA136

HR3

K%32

BB%7

MLB%0%

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$-8M	-$10M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	17	ROK	GCL Marlins	42	40	2	0	0	0	2	22	0	0	1	.050	.095	.050	.145	.000	.111	52	5	.081	-80	-9	-0	+0	+1	+1	-0.7
2018	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	147	133	18	3	0	0	7	55	4	6	5	.135	.201	.158	.359	.023	.228	37	5	.164	-16	-19	-1	+0	+3	+4	-1.4
2019	19	ROK	GCL Marlins	34	31	6	1	0	1	2	9	1	1	0	.194	.265	.323	.587	.129	.238	26	6	.222	28	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2021	21	A	3 teams	375	337	51	3	2	6	21	198	16	4	0	.151	.235	.226	.461	.074	.338	53	6	.205	15	-36	+1	+0	+7	+11	-1.8
2022	22	INTL	4 teams	254	231	26	5	1	2	14	153	8	1	0	.113	.190	.169	.359	.056	.316	60	6	.162	-18	-34	+0	+0	+5	+7	-2.2
2023	23	A	3 teams	220	194	28	7	1	3	19	116	5	2	4	.144	.239	.237	.476	.093	.329	53	9	.215	22	-19	-1	+0	+4	+6	-1.1
2024	24	INTL	2 teams	96	87	11	7	0	0	4	57	2	1	2	.126	.183	.207	.390	.080	.344	59	4	.160	-19	-13	-1	+0	+2	+3	-0.9
2025	25	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	59	46	7	2	0	1	6	22	6	0	1	.152	.328	.261	.588	.109	.261	37	10	—	—	—	—	+0	+1	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	MIA	136	124	26	5	1	3	10	44	1	2	1	.210	.274	.339	.613	.129	.288	32	7	.265	61	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB 10%	MIA	209	189	39	7	1	4	16	65	2	4	1	.206	.275	.317	.593	.111	.289	31	8	.271	66	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2028	28	MLB 20%	MIA	276	250	53	10	2	6	21	85	3	4	1	.212	.281	.340	.621	.128	.289	31	8	.274	68	-10	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.2
2029	29	MLB 33%	MIA	310	280	60	11	2	7	24	95	3	4	1	.214	.283	.343	.626	.129	.288	31	8	.274	68	-11	+0	-1	+6	+9	0.2
2030	30	MLB 43%	MIA	333	301	63	12	2	7	26	103	3	4	1	.209	.279	.332	.611	.123	.287	31	8	.272	67	-13	+0	-2	+6	+9	0.1
2031	31	MLB 52%	MIA	320	289	59	11	2	6	25	100	3	2	0	.204	.274	.318	.593	.114	.285	31	8	.269	64	-13	+0	-3	+6	+9	-0.1
2032	32	MLB 63%	MIA	300	271	56	10	2	6	23	95	3	1	0	.207	.276	.325	.601	.118	.284	32	8	.264	60	-13	+0	-4	+5	+8	-0.3
2033	33	MLB 81%	MIA	268	243	48	9	1	5	21	87	2	0	0	.198	.267	.305	.571	.107	.282	32	8	.259	56	-13	+0	-4	+5	+8	-0.5
2034	34	MLB	MIA	224	203	39	7	1	4	17	75	2	0	0	.192	.261	.296	.557	.103	.280	33	8	.253	51	-12	+0	-5	+4	+6	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			3603	3249	592	110	18	61	258	1381	64	36	18	.182	.256	.283	.539	.101	.291	38	7	.236	39	-249	+0	-20	+64	+102	-10.4
/ 162G	—			650	586	107	20	3	11	47	249	12	6	3	.183	.258	.283	.541	.101	.292	38	7	.236	39	-45	+0	-4	+12	+18	-1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	17	ROK	GCL Marlins	42	38	3	0	0	0	4	15	0	0	1	.079	.167	.079	.246	.000	.130	36	10	.131	-41	-7	-0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2018	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	147	127	24	4	0	0	13	38	4	6	5	.189	.285	.220	.505	.031	.267	26	9	.240	42	-10	-1	—	—	+4	-0.6
2019	19	ROK	GCL Marlins	34	30	7	1	0	1	3	6	1	1	0	.233	.324	.367	.690	.133	.261	18	9	.315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2021	21	A+	Beloit Snappers	84	77	15	1	1	2	4	38	3	0	0	.195	.262	.312	.574	.117	.351	45	5	.262	59	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2021	21	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	189	164	36	3	1	4	18	71	7	2	0	.220	.323	.323	.646	.104	.360	38	10	.301	88	-2	+0	—	—	+5	0.3
2021	21	INTL	RA12	102	80	14	5	0	0	15	26	6	2	0	.175	.347	.237	.584	.062	.259	25	15	.289	79	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2022	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	41	34	6	0	1	0	3	12	3	1	0	.176	.300	.235	.535	.059	.273	29	7	.255	53	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	22	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	53	47	8	2	0	1	4	26	2	0	0	.170	.264	.277	.541	.106	.350	49	8	.253	52	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2022	22	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	68	63	13	4	0	1	5	33	0	0	0	.206	.265	.317	.582	.111	.414	49	7	.264	60	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2022	22	INTL	RA12	92	80	15	4	1	2	9	33	3	0	0	.188	.293	.338	.631	.150	.289	36	10	.290	80	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2023	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	20	17	6	1	0	1	3	5	0	0	0	.353	.450	.588	1.038	.235	.455	25	15	.454	205	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	23	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	129	111	21	6	1	2	15	52	2	1	1	.189	.297	.315	.612	.126	.328	40	12	.281	73	-4	-0	—	—	+4	-0.0
2023	23	INTL	RA12	71	61	5	1	1	1	6	25	3	1	3	.082	.200	.180	.380	.098	.114	35	8	.186	0	-8	-1	—	—	+2	-0.7
2024	24	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	17	16	3	2	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	.188	.235	.312	.548	.125	.375	47	6	.245	46	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2024	24	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	79	73	20	3	0	1	1	26	2	1	2	.274	.303	.356	.659	.082	.396	33	1	.286	77	-2	-1	—	—	+2	-0.0
2025	25	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	59	46	7	2	0	1	6	22	6	0	1	.152	.328	.261	.588	.109	.261	37	10	.286	77	-2	-0	—	—	+2	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jan Mercado (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	.202/.267/.315	.113	.288	3	2	32%	7%	61	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA	26	38	44→45	47→30	44	.195/.260/.302	.108	.268	12	4	31%	8%	54	-1.4	.216/.284/.346	.130	.306	15	4	32%	9%	76	+0.0	.206/.279/.334	.128	.290	16	1	33%	9%	68	-0.3
✕Maverick Handley 2023 · AA	25	40	45	51→50	44	.199/.282/.323	.124	.278	13	13	32%	8%	70	-0.3	.204/.293/.301	.097	.284	9	11	29%	9%	69	-0.4	.196/.289/.271	.075	.275	6	10	28%	9%	57	-0.6
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	35→37	45→50	47→50	39	.184/.244/.304	.120	.244	14	10	30%	6%	48	-1.9	.203/.249/.336	.133	.277	16	10	32%	5%	59	-1.1	.205/.254/.334	.129	.270	15	10	29%	5%	57	-0.6
✕Chris Williams 2022 · AA	25	36→31	45→55	50→40	45	.177/.269/.302	.125	.295	12	5	41%	11%	59	-1.1	.194/.271/.372	.178	.288	24	5	39%	9%	78	+0.2	.180/.262/.367	.188	.250	27	4	39%	9%	71	-0.2
✕Willie MacIver 2023 · AAA	26	38→35	48→45	50→55	39	.196/.260/.330	.134	.279	17	14	35%	7%	62	-0.9	.216/.292/.346	.130	.312	13	16	33%	8%	79	+0.3	.230/.309/.359	.129	.323	13	18	30%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Jakson Reetz 2022 · AAA	26	38→34	45→60	45	39	.189/.269/.309	.120	.282	13	5	36%	7%	61	-1.0	.204/.281/.391	.187	.267	24	5	33%	6%	88	+0.9	.197/.277/.397	.201	.245	26	4	31%	7%	84	+0.3
✕David Sheaffer 2021 · AAA	26	41	47→55	50→40	38	.209/.254/.341	.132	.283	15	6	32%	5%	61	-1.0	.202/.249/.301	.099	.291	9	5	32%	5%	48	-1.9	.174/.220/.258	.084	.252	7	1	32%	5%	24	-1.0
✕Jason Delay 2021 · AA	26	41	44→45	49→40	38	.208/.261/.320	.112	.286	13	6	32%	5%	59	-1.1	.205/.252/.302	.097	.293	8	5	31%	5%	50	-1.8	.226/.285/.301	.075	.297	3	2	23%	6%	61	-0.4
✕Zack Short 2021 · AAA	26	40→39	47→50	46→45	46	.199/.287/.342	.143	.292	15	7	35%	10%	76	+0.1	.191/.286/.326	.135	.262	15	9	31%	11%	72	-0.2	.179/.279/.311	.132	.240	16	9	31%	11%	63	-0.6
✕Connor Kaiser 2023 · AA	26	38	48→45	51→50	42	.198/.263/.333	.135	.282	16	12	35%	8%	63	-0.8	.187/.269/.297	.110	.295	11	14	37%	9%	57	-1.2	.172/.261/.270	.098	.275	9	12	38%	10%	44	-1.2
✕Ryan Ortiz 2014 · AAA	26	40	43→45	46→40	47	.199/.281/.306	.107	.269	11	4	29%	9%	65	-0.7	.203/.295/.294	.091	.287	7	4	29%	10%	67	-0.5	.185/.302/.243	.058	.271	3	0	28%	13%	55	-0.7
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	38	42→45	43→45	44	.190/.273/.285	.095	.272	10	5	32%	8%	56	-1.3	.226/.321/.370	.144	.293	15	10	26%	11%	98	+1.6	.221/.324/.370	.149	.286	16	11	27%	12%	97	+0.8
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	39→33	44→45	48→45	42	.196/.263/.315	.118	.271	12	9	31%	7%	59	-1.1	.204/.262/.318	.114	.295	12	7	33%	7%	59	-1.1	.195/.242/.316	.121	.282	13	0	35%	5%	50	-0.5
✕Ryan Dorow 2022 · AAA	26	41→42	46→45	48→45	41	.206/.273/.337	.131	.294	14	8	34%	7%	69	-0.4	.211/.273/.328	.117	.292	11	6	30%	7%	66	-0.6	.198/.264/.293	.095	.274	7	2	29%	7%	50	-1.2
✕Aaron Schunk 2023 · AA	26	40→43	44→45	48→50	36	.203/.250/.319	.116	.288	12	9	33%	5%	53	-1.5	.216/.261/.332	.116	.297	11	10	30%	5%	62	-0.9	.216/.262/.331	.115	.289	11	10	28%	5%	58	-0.8
✕Joe DeCarlo 2021 · AA	27	40→38	43→50	47→30	40	.197/.265/.308	.111	.291	11	5	34%	7%	58	-1.2	.199/.260/.292	.093	.305	9	6	35%	7%	51	-1.7	.163/.224/.224	.061	.249	8	0	36%	7%	16	-1.3
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	45→50	48→50	37	.186/.248/.306	.120	.290	14	12	39%	7%	50	-1.7	.185/.245/.287	.102	.286	9	10	36%	7%	43	-2.2	.153/.212/.244	.092	.224	3	6	32%	7%	14	-1.0
✕Brian Serven 2021 · AA	26	38	45→50	43→30	40	.195/.250/.317	.122	.255	13	5	28%	5%	54	-1.4	.193/.251/.326	.133	.244	17	4	28%	6%	57	-1.2	.182/.252/.278	.096	.251	12	0	31%	7%	42	-0.9
✕Brent Diaz 2022 · AA	26	41	43→45	45	39	.196/.275/.304	.108	.304	11	8	37%	7%	62	-0.9	.218/.283/.353	.135	.305	16	9	32%	6%	78	+0.2	.202/.265/.336	.134	.270	18	9	31%	5%	61	-0.3
✕Cody Puckett 2013 · AAA	26	38→40	49→55	50	39	.202/.253/.347	.145	.266	16	11	30%	6%	63	-0.8	.213/.255/.360	.147	.248	19	10	23%	5%	67	-0.5	.211/.245/.368	.157	.220	24	8	18%	4%	62	-0.6

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)