Kyle Jones (P, Fort Myers Mighty Mussels) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Kyle Jones P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 69 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%20.2%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	4	14	5	0	0	0%	2.0	35.7%	0.0%	35.7%	0.0%	0.00	0.08	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	4	14	5	0	0	0%	2.0	35.7%	0.0%	35.7%	0.0%	0.00	0.60	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	20	99	420	89	35	10	91%	4.5	16.3%	9.6%	6.7%	2.6%	4.26	4.38	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	20	99	420	89	35	10	91%	4.5	16.3%	9.6%	6.7%	2.6%	4.26	4.38	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	22	20	99	420	89	35	10	91%	4.5	21.2%	8.3%	12.9%	2.4%	4.26	3.67	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	5	18	67	18	5	1	83%	3.0	26.9%	7.5%	19.4%	1.5%	2.00	2.60	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	5	18	67	18	5	1	83%	3.0	26.9%	7.5%	19.4%	1.5%	2.00	2.60	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	5	18	67	18	5	1	83%	3.0	26.9%	7.5%	19.4%	1.5%	2.00	2.66	—
2025	25	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	0	2	13	2	3	0	0%	0.8	15.4%	23.1%	-7.7%	0.0%	0.00	4.72	—
2025	25	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	0	2	13	2	3	0	0%	0.8	15.4%	23.1%	-7.7%	0.0%	0.00	4.72	—
2025	25	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	0	2	13	2	3	0	0%	0.8	15.4%	23.1%	-7.7%	0.0%	0.00	6.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	9.4%	10.7%	3.0%	4.61	4.61	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	68	289	59	27	9	100%	6.2	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.0%	4.60	4.62	+0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	66	280	58	27	9	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.1%	4.64	4.68	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	63	268	55	26	9	100%	5.8	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	3.3%	4.72	4.79	+0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	4	4	25	106	22	10	3	100%	6.2	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	3.0%	4.61	4.63	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	39	165	34	16	5	100%	6.5	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.1%	4.65	4.69	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	44	186	38	18	6	100%	6.3	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	3.3%	4.73	4.80	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	108	458	94	44	15	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	3.2%	4.67	4.34	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	173	81	28	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	3.2%	4.67	4.34	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		32	25	123	514	94	48	12	78%	3.8	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	2.3%	3.73	4.04	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	41	200	836	152	78	20	78%	3.8	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	2.3%	3.73	4.04	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.69	20.5%	10.9%	198	+0.08	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	82
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	81
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	81
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	80
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	80
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	80
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	80
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	80
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	78
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	78
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	78
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	78
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	78
David Phelps R 2013 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	21.0%	9.0%	2.0%	.314	3.56	21.5%	13.3%	312	-0.01	2.50	672	77
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	77
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	76
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.83	17.8%	6.5%	200	+0.57	4.26	292	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	20.4%	9.6%	1.20	4.64
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Justin Grimm ('22)	1.9	75	23.0%	10.1%	1.17	5.10
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33