Kyle Jones
P
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 69 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%22.5%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 35.7% | 0.0% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.08 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 35.7% | 0.0% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.60 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 22 | 20 | 99 | 420 | 89 | 35 | 10 | 91% | 4.5 | 16.3% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 4.26 | 4.23 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 22 | 20 | 99 | 420 | 89 | 35 | 10 | 91% | 4.5 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 4.26 | 3.67 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 6 | 5 | 18 | 67 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 3.0 | 26.9% | 7.5% | 19.4% | 1.5% | 2.00 | 2.60 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 6 | 5 | 18 | 67 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 3.0 | 26.9% | 7.5% | 19.4% | 1.5% | 2.00 | 2.66 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 15.4% | 23.1% | -7.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 4.72 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 15.4% | 23.1% | -7.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 6.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 70 | 293 | 66 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 68 | 289 | 65 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 63 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 61 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.08 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 78 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 25 | 123 | 514 | 94 | 48 | 11 | 78% | 3.8 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 3.73 | 3.91 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 41 | 200 | 836 | 152 | 78 | 18 | 78% | 3.8 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 3.73 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Jones (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.45 | 22.6% | 13.2% | 135 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 85 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 81 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 77 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 77 |
| Chad Dallas R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 322 | 77 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 76 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 76 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 76 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 75 |
| Kutter Crawford R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 21.9% | 7.7% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.08 | 24.1% | 17.4% | 313 | -0.39 | 3.35 | 741 | 75 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 75 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 4.2% | .262 | 3.81 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 472 | 74 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 74 |
| Sean Mooney R 2024 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 74 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 73 |
| Sauryn Lao R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.48 | 21.7% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 182 | 73 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 73 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 73 |
| Chase Centala R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 72 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 1.17 | 4.40 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |