Kyle Jones
P
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
+1.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.1 · 2027
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.3%
IP99
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 22 | 20 | 99 | 420 | 89 | 35 | 10 | 16.3% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.26 | 4.37 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 6 | 5 | 18 | 67 | 18 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 94 | 39 | 12 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 103 | 433 | 97 | 40 | 13 | 22.5% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 103 | 435 | 98 | 39 | 13 | 22.4% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 95 | 39 | 13 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.43 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 91 | 38 | 13 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 87 | 37 | 13 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.57 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 91 | 383 | 82 | 36 | 13 | 21.5% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 86 | 365 | 78 | 35 | 12 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.75 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 72 | 34 | 12 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.79 | 4.86 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 78 | 327 | 74 | 30 | 12 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.74 | 4.71 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 67 | 29 | 11 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.85 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 61 | 28 | 11 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 3.8% | 4.92 | 4.99 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 32 | 25 | 123 | 514 | 94 | 48 | 12 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 3.73 | 4.03 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 41 | 200 | 836 | 153 | 78 | 20 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 3.73 | 4.03 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Jones (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.40 | 22.4% | 13.3% | 306 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 89 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 87 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 87 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 86 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.22 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .330 | 4.61 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 110 | +1.39 | 3.22 | 221 | 85 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 85 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 85 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 84 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2023 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 83 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 83 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .262 | 3.93 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -0.85 | 3.50 | 472 | 83 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.16 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 3.6% | .317 | 3.35 | 22.2% | 15.7% | 50 | -0.81 | 3.35 | 394 | 83 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 83 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 82 |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 82 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.24 | 21.9% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .263 | 5.58 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 85 | +2.34 | 2.92 | 367 | 82 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 420 | 82 |
| Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 82 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 82 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .275 | 3.86 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 73 | +0.10 | 3.76 | 180 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $11M | +$7M | ||