Yunior Severino

1B St. Paul Saints

Age 27 S/R 6'0" / 189 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	23	AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs	561	.266/.357/.528	35	3	87	—	.218/.285/.397
2024	24	AAAMIN	565	.254/.346/.434	21	4	76	—	.217/.287/.343
2025	25	AAA/INTL2 orgs	155	.195/.331/.328	3	1	56	—	.165/.272/.248
2027PROJ10% MLB	27	MLBMIN	10	.219/.299/.360	0	0	86	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	28	MLBMIN	50	.218/.298/.358	1	1	85	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AAA

BB%95

Max EV90

Chase%48

Speed38

Z-Con%18

K%9

CompsLogan Davidson (age 25) · Zach Walters (age 27) · Patrick Kivlehan (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .299 / .360

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP314

ISO140

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	17	ROK	GCL Braves	—	252	226	61	19	3	3	24	67	2	0	1	270	345	420	766	150	372	27	10	342	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	218	198	52	8	0	8	17	52	1	0	1	263	324	424	748	162	314	24	8	331	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	86	78	19	7	0	0	7	27	0	0	0	244	306	333	639	90	365	31	8	288	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	ROK	GCL Twins	—	22	22	5	1	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	227	227	500	727	273	267	27	0	309	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	157	134	43	12	1	3	20	50	2	1	0	321	417	493	909	172	488	32	13	402	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	268	229	56	17	1	5	32	75	5	2	0	245	350	393	743	148	338	28	12	335	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	160	143	39	8	0	8	14	48	1	0	1	273	342	497	838	224	348	30	9	364	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	191	159	45	9	2	11	25	43	6	0	0	283	400	572	972	289	321	23	13	421	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	153	133	31	2	1	11	15	56	3	0	0	233	325	511	836	278	294	37	10	360	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	375	334	96	15	2	24	36	117	5	3	4	287	365	560	925	272	373	31	10	403	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	33	22	3	0	0	0	6	5	4	0	0	136	406	136	543		167	15	18	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	565	489	124	21	2	21	67	154	2	4	0	254	346	434	779	180	321	27	12	344	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	125	102	20	7	0	2	23	44	0	1	0	196	344	324	668	127	321	35	18	313	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	30	26	5	1	0	1	3	9	0	0	0	192	276	346	622	154	235	30	10	272	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	17	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	—	252	235	43	12	2	2	15	97	2	0	1	183	238	277	515	94	300	38	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	218	205	41	6	0	6	10	74	1	0	1	200	241	317	558	117	270	34	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	86	80	14	5	0	0	5	38	0	0	0	175	224	237	461	62	334	44	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	22	22	4	1	1	1	0	9	0	0	0	182	182	455	636	273	201	41	0	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	157	140	35	9	1	2	14	68	2	1	0	250	327	371	698	121	456	43	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	268	238	45	14	1	4	23	104	5	2	0	189	274	307	581	118	303	39	9	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	160	147	34	7	0	6	10	61	1	0	1	231	285	401	686	170	328	38	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	191	166	40	8	2	9	18	55	6	0	0	241	337	476	813	235	296	29	9	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	153	138	25	1	1	7	10	69	3	0	0	181	252	355	607	174	272	45	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	375	343	80	13	2	15	27	140	5	3	4	233	299	414	713	181	346	37	7	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	565	508	110	18	2	14	48	186	2	4	0	217	287	343	629	126	299	33	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	125	109	18	6	0	1	16	53	0	1	0	165	272	248	520	83	320	42	13	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	17	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	—	252	235	43	12	2	2	15	97	2	0	1	183	238	277	515	94	301	38	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	—	252	226	61	19	3	3	24	67	2	0	1	270	345	420	766	150	372	27	10	342	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	218	205	41	6	0	6	10	74	1	0	1	200	241	317	558	117	276	34	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	—	218	198	52	8	0	8	17	52	1	0	1	263	324	424	748	162	314	24	8	331	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	108	102	19	6	1	1	5	47	0	0	0	186	224	294	518	108	327	44	5	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	108	100	24	8	1	1	7	33	0	0	0	240	290	370	660	130	343	31	6	292	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	425	379	81	24	2	6	36	172	7	3	0	214	294	335	629	121	368	40	8	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	425	363	99	29	2	8	52	125	7	3	0	273	374	430	804	157	391	29	12	360	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	351	313	74	15	2	15	28	116	7	0	1	236	313	441	754	204	319	33	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	351	302	84	17	2	19	39	91	7	0	1	278	374	536	910	258	333	26	11	395	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	561	507	113	16	3	24	39	222	12	3	4	223	294	408	702	185	337	40	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	561	489	130	17	3	35	57	178	12	3	4	266	357	528	884	262	341	32	10	385	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	565	508	110	18	2	14	48	186	2	4	0	217	287	343	629	126	305	33	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	—	565	489	124	21	2	21	67	154	2	4	0	254	346	434	779	180	321	27	12	344	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	155	134	23	8	0	1	20	66	0	1	0	172	279	254	533	82	324	43	13	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	155	128	25	8	0	3	26	53	0	1	0	195	331	328	659	133	301	34	17	305	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	17	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	—	252	233	43	12	2	2	15	97	2	0	1	185	238	279	517	94	300	38	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	218	205	41	6	0	6	10	74	1	0	1	200	241	317	558	117	270	34	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	108	102	19	6	1	1	5	47	0	0	0	186	224	294	518	108	307	44	5	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	425	379	81	24	2	6	36	172	7	3	0	214	294	335	629	121	360	40	8	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	351	313	74	15	2	15	28	116	7	0	1	236	313	441	754	204	311	33	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	561	505	113	16	3	24	39	222	12	3	4	224	294	410	704	186	325	40	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	565	510	110	18	2	14	48	186	2	4	0	216	287	341	628	125	299	33	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	155	134	23	8	0	1	20	66	0	1	0	172	279	254	533	82	320	43	13	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	565	510	110	18	2	14	48	186	2	4	0	216	287	341	628	125	299	33	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	155	134	23	8	0	1	20	66	0	1	0	172	279	254	533	82	320	43	13	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	10%	200	178	39	8	1	5	19	67	1	3	1	218	299	360	659	141	314	34	10	296	86	-3	+0	+0	-4	+4	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	10%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	219	299	360	660	142	314	30	10	296	86	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	31%	161	143	31	6	1	4	16	54	1	2	0	218	298	357	655	139	311	34	10	294	85	-3	+0	-1	-3	+3	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	31%	50	45	9	2	0	1	5	17	0	1	0	218	298	358	656	140	311	34	10	295	85	-1	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	50	45	9	2	0	1	5	17	0	1	0	200	280	311	591	111	296	34	10	295	74	-1	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	117	26	0	13	65	221	0	13	0	200	280	311	591	111	296	34	10	295	74	-11	+3	-3	-12	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	2901	2619	555	115	13	76	227	1069	33	14	7	212	283	353	636	141	320	37	8	277	74	-4	+1	-1	-5	+6	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	125	26	3	17	51	240	7	3	2	213	284	354	638	141	322	37	8	277	74	-11	+1	-2	-12	+14	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 125 PAwOBA .306 → .247 (−59)K% 35.2% → 42.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.20%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	42.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.40%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×1.018	12.65%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.97%	÷0.944	×0.930	×1.050	×1.018	19.97%
Doubles /BIP	12.07%	÷0.938	×0.830	×1.050	×1.018	11.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.45%	÷1.253	×0.700	—	×1.018	1.96%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .306 → .247; ISO .127 → .095; BABIP .321 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 565 PAwOBA .339 → .280 (−59)K% 27.3% → 32.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.26%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	32.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.68%	÷0.985	×0.690	—	×1.033	8.45%
HBP% /PA	0.35%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.34%
Singles /BIP	23.88%	÷1.010	×0.930	×1.019	×1.033	23.16%
Doubles /BIP	6.27%	÷0.996	×0.830	×1.019	×1.033	5.50%
Triples /BIP	0.60%	÷1.043	×0.970	×1.019	×1.033	0.58%
Home runs /BIP	6.27%	÷1.039	×0.700	—	×1.033	4.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 109, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .339 → .280; ISO .180 → .133; BABIP .321 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 375 PAwOBA .391 → .307 (−85)K% 31.2% → 37.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.20%	÷1.018	×1.220	—	—	37.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.60%	÷0.962	×0.700	—	×1.012	7.07%
HBP% /PA	1.33%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	1.17%
Singles /BIP	25.35%	÷1.011	×0.920	×1.047	×1.012	24.43%
Doubles /BIP	6.91%	÷0.931	×0.840	×1.047	×1.012	6.61%
Triples /BIP	0.92%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.047	×1.012	1.02%
Home runs /BIP	11.06%	÷1.231	×0.800	—	×1.012	7.27%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.

Result: wOBA .391 → .307; ISO .272 → .186; BABIP .373 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 153 PAwOBA .355 → .269 (−86)K% 36.6% → 45.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.60%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	45.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.80%	÷1.067	×0.690	—	×1.048	6.64%
HBP% /PA	1.96%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.93%
Singles /BIP	22.08%	÷0.964	×0.930	×0.990	×1.048	22.09%
Doubles /BIP	2.60%	÷1.341	×0.830	×0.990	×1.048	1.67%
Triples /BIP	1.30%	÷0.977	×0.970	×0.990	×1.048	1.34%
Home runs /BIP	14.29%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×1.048	10.39%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 168, 3B 95, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .355 → .269; ISO .278 → .189; BABIP .294 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 191 PAwOBA .412 → .345 (−67)K% 22.5% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.51%	÷0.993	×1.270	—	—	28.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.09%	÷0.983	×0.710	—	×0.998	9.43%
HBP% /PA	3.14%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	2.48%
Singles /BIP	19.83%	÷1.021	×0.920	×1.050	×0.998	18.72%
Doubles /BIP	7.76%	÷0.912	×0.810	×1.050	×0.998	7.22%
Triples /BIP	1.72%	÷1.011	×0.850	×1.050	×0.998	1.52%
Home runs /BIP	9.48%	÷0.948	×0.800	—	×0.998	7.99%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 104, 2B 82, 3B 102, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .412 → .345; ISO .289 → .244; BABIP .321 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAWichita Wind Surge · 160 PAwOBA .358 → .295 (−64)K% 30.0% → 38.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.00%	÷0.958	×1.220	—	—	38.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.75%	÷0.991	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.35%
HBP% /PA	0.62%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.56%
Singles /BIP	24.21%	÷1.018	×0.920	×1.050	×1.027	23.60%
Doubles /BIP	8.42%	÷1.001	×0.840	×1.050	×1.027	7.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.050	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.42%	÷0.985	×0.800	—	×1.027	7.02%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .358 → .295; ISO .224 → .176; BABIP .348 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 268 PAwOBA .329 → .256 (−73)K% 28.0% → 38.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.99%	÷0.979	×1.360	—	—	38.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.94%	÷0.976	×0.690	—	—	8.44%
HBP% /PA	1.87%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.46%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.066	×0.920	×1.023	—	18.92%
Doubles /BIP	11.04%	÷0.909	×0.830	×1.023	—	10.31%
Triples /BIP	0.65%	÷0.937	×0.910	×1.023	—	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	3.25%	÷0.908	×0.800	—	—	2.86%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 113, 2B 82, 3B 87, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .329 → .256; ISO .148 → .121; BABIP .338 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 157 PAwOBA .394 → .311 (−83)K% 31.8% → 43.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.85%	÷0.992	×1.350	—	—	43.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.74%	÷1.026	×0.710	—	×1.012	8.92%
HBP% /PA	1.27%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	1.04%
Singles /BIP	32.14%	÷1.012	×0.910	×1.050	×1.012	30.71%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷0.976	×0.830	×1.050	×1.012	12.90%
Triples /BIP	1.19%	÷0.900	×0.820	×1.050	×1.012	1.15%
Home runs /BIP	3.57%	÷0.920	×0.830	—	×1.012	3.26%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .394 → .311; ISO .172 → .137; BABIP .488 → .456. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yunior Severino (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	217/297/356	140	314	3	1	34%	10%	86	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Logan Davidson 2023 · AA	25	41→47	45→50	45→50	42	202/267/319	117	298	13	5	35%	8%	66	-1.1	224/285/350	126	328	13	8	33%	7%	80	-0.2	224/291/348	124	331	12	8	34%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Zach Walters 2017 · MLB	27	42→50	48→60	49→45	40	218/258/363	145	267	16	5	26%	5%	72	-0.7	207/250/316	109	272	11	8	27%	5%	58	-1.7	150/176/196	46	213	3	3	30%	2%	0	-1.4
✕Patrick Kivlehan 2017 · MLB	27	42→50	47→60	48→50	38	213/258/346	133	287	15	10	31%	5%	68	-1.0	215/273/379	164	287	20	6	31%	6%	82	+0.0	210/275/401	192	267	25	3	31%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Clint Frazier 2023 · MLB	28	40→49	44→55	52→50	47	196/290/311	115	295	12	10	35%	10%	74	-0.6	202/287/321	119	297	12	12	33%	9%	74	-0.5	183/277/297	114	266	11	13	33%	10%	64	-0.8
✕Matt Skole 2016 · AAA	27	39→40	46→50	44→40	48	203/277/331	128	264	15	4	28%	9%	73	-0.6	199/263/344	145	253	18	4	28%	8%	70	-0.8	181/256/315	134	241	16	1	31%	9%	60	-1.1
✕Josh Lester 2021 · AAA	27	40→44	47→55	47→40	42	206/260/337	131	267	15	3	28%	6%	68	-1.0	204/251/378	174	262	22	5	31%	5%	74	-0.6	195/241/366	171	246	22	4	31%	5%	65	-1.0
✕Elier Hernandez 2022 · AAA	27	40→50	46→50	45→50	36	204/251/322	119	283	15	8	33%	5%	60	-1.6	237/285/377	140	307	14	10	26%	5%	86	+0.3	245/292/388	143	313	13	10	25%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Alex Burg 2015 · AAA	27	44→40	43→50	42→40	43	216/280/328	112	302	11	4	31%	7%	72	-0.7	209/276/349	140	273	16	4	28%	7%	76	-0.4	194/264/341	147	243	18	1	28%	7%	69	-0.6
✕Vince Fernandez 2021 · AA	26	40→39	49→55	48→45	37	196/263/346	151	327	17	7	43%	7%	71	-0.8	203/273/363	160	315	18	6	39%	6%	79	-0.2	185/261/351	167	286	19	4	40%	6%	70	-0.5
✕Patrick Leonard 2019 · AAA	26	44→49	42→45	49→50	38	211/262/320	109	307	10	9	33%	6%	63	-1.3	225/280/341	116	333	11	10	34%	7%	75	-0.5	231/287/343	111	344	11	10	34%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Matt Davidson 2017 · AAA	26	38→45	47→60	46→30	39	195/259/326	131	281	16	2	35%	7%	65	-1.2	218/281/405	187	300	25	2	35%	7%	92	+0.7	214/286/408	195	283	27	0	34%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Andy Wilkins 2017 · MLB	28	37→46	50→55	49→45	41	200/249/352	152	248	18	4	28%	6%	67	-1.1	186/252/339	153	251	20	5	33%	8%	65	-1.2	159/232/310	152	211	21	3	36%	8%	50	-0.9
✕Chris Chinea 2021 · AA	27	42→52	45	47→30	36	216/253/335	120	293	14	4	31%	4%	64	-1.3	225/279/344	119	291	13	7	26%	5%	76	-0.4	213/267/318	105	266	13	0	24%	4%	63	-0.4
✕TT Bowens 2024 · AA	26	42→44	44→45	46→40	40	199/270/316	117	320	12	4	39%	8%	66	-1.1	192/246/316	124	288	14	5	37%	6%	57	-1.8	175/226/298	124	255	15	4	37%	5%	43	-1.4
✕Ryan LaMarre 2016 · MLB	27	42→52	43→45	48→60	38	208/256/315	107	279	11	16	29%	5%	60	-1.6	236/288/338	102	338	10	18	31%	5%	78	-0.3	228/296/354	126	321	12	23	31%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Trayvon Robinson 2015 · MLB	27	44→54	42→50	49→55	39	213/261/316	103	305	9	17	32%	6%	62	-1.4	216/274/316	100	275	9	17	24%	7%	68	-1.0	227/289/330	103	280	9	16	21%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Preston Palmeiro 2022 · AAA	27	42→47	45	45→40	40	213/254/332	119	272	13	7	27%	5%	63	-1.3	214/271/326	112	271	9	5	23%	7%	69	-0.9	205/269/307	103	257	7	2	22%	7%	61	-0.8
✕Dustin Geiger 2017 · AA	25	41→48	44→50	47→40	42	207/265/325	118	283	12	7	30%	7%	66	-1.1	190/252/309	119	284	13	5	36%	6%	58	-1.7	163/229/276	113	245	13	1	37%	6%	40	-1.4
✕Nick Podkul 2022 · AA	25	39	44→50	51→50	46	196/271/312	116	260	11	11	28%	8%	66	-1.1	211/300/351	140	290	16	6	31%	9%	86	+0.3	202/300/344	142	280	17	3	32%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Nellie Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	25	38→41	49→50	46→30	38	189/257/331	142	320	18	2	44%	8%	65	-1.2	197/257/340	143	337	17	5	44%	7%	68	-1.0	158/218/298	140	266	19	0	47%	7%	42	-1.5