Nellie Rodriguez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 25 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 346 | .195/.289/.371 | 13 | 0 | 47 | — | .160/.223/.303 |
| 2021 | 27 | INTLNavegantes de… | 178 | .282/.420/.648 | 14 | 0 | 191 | — | |
| 2023 | 29 | INTLLeones de Pon… | 50 | .163/.280/.186 | 0 | 0 | 44 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians | — | 136 | 109 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 378 | 459 | 836 | 229 | 323 | 30 | 18 | 370 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 188 | 160 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 306 | 256 | 563 | 62 | 280 | 28 | 14 | 266 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 550 | 485 | 130 | 32 | 3 | 22 | 60 | 142 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 351 | 482 | 833 | 214 | 333 | 26 | 11 | 366 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 105 | 93 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 204 | 269 | 473 | 151 | 130 | 35 | 9 | 214 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 460 | 396 | 109 | 32 | 2 | 17 | 51 | 122 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 275 | 364 | 495 | 859 | 220 | 347 | 27 | 11 | 371 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 579 | 492 | 123 | 28 | 2 | 26 | 75 | 186 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 356 | 474 | 830 | 224 | 339 | 32 | 13 | 364 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 55 | 41 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 364 | 293 | 656 | 146 | 217 | 31 | 22 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 433 | 377 | 64 | 14 | 0 | 17 | 53 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 272 | 342 | 614 | 172 | 260 | 42 | 12 | 278 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 268 | 240 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 95 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 279 | 375 | 654 | 171 | 285 | 35 | 9 | 290 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 126 | 106 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 47 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 283 | 382 | 509 | 892 | 226 | 439 | 37 | 13 | 383 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 32 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 148 | 258 | 370 | 628 | 222 | 154 | 41 | 12 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 314 | 277 | 55 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 31 | 120 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 284 | 375 | 659 | 177 | 291 | 38 | 10 | 293 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 32 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 344 | 320 | 664 | 160 | 600 | 59 | 22 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | INTL | Navegantes del Magallanes | — | 178 | 142 | 40 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 31 | 56 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 282 | 420 | 648 | 1.068 | 366 | 351 | 31 | 17 | 451 | 191 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | INTL | Leones de Ponce | — | 50 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 280 | 186 | 466 | 23 | 269 | 34 | 10 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 136 | 118 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 252 | 288 | 540 | 144 | 239 | 43 | 11 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 188 | 166 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 247 | 211 | 458 | 54 | 258 | 38 | 11 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 550 | 501 | 105 | 25 | 3 | 16 | 44 | 196 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 276 | 367 | 643 | 158 | 297 | 36 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 105 | 95 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 116 | 184 | 263 | 448 | 147 | 122 | 42 | 7 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 460 | 415 | 88 | 24 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 168 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 275 | 373 | 648 | 161 | 298 | 37 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 579 | 510 | 105 | 22 | 2 | 21 | 57 | 228 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 293 | 380 | 674 | 175 | 307 | 39 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 433 | 395 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 35 | 220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 200 | 238 | 438 | 109 | 237 | 51 | 8 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 268 | 246 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 112 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 230 | 293 | 523 | 122 | 272 | 42 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 126 | 110 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 333 | 436 | 770 | 182 | 439 | 45 | 10 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 314 | 287 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 146 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 223 | 303 | 526 | 143 | 260 | 46 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 136 | 118 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 252 | 288 | 540 | 144 | 246 | 43 | 11 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Indians | — | 136 | 109 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 378 | 459 | 836 | 229 | 323 | 30 | 18 | 370 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 188 | 166 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 247 | 211 | 458 | 54 | 266 | 38 | 11 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 188 | 160 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 306 | 256 | 563 | 62 | 280 | 28 | 14 | 266 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 550 | 501 | 105 | 25 | 3 | 16 | 44 | 196 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 276 | 367 | 643 | 158 | 305 | 36 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 550 | 485 | 130 | 32 | 3 | 22 | 60 | 142 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 351 | 482 | 833 | 214 | 333 | 26 | 11 | 366 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 565 | 510 | 99 | 26 | 2 | 17 | 39 | 212 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 258 | 353 | 611 | 159 | 282 | 38 | 7 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 565 | 489 | 120 | 34 | 2 | 21 | 60 | 159 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 334 | 452 | 786 | 207 | 310 | 28 | 11 | 342 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 634 | 558 | 115 | 24 | 2 | 23 | 62 | 249 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 295 | 380 | 675 | 174 | 315 | 39 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 634 | 533 | 129 | 31 | 2 | 27 | 87 | 203 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 242 | 357 | 460 | 816 | 218 | 330 | 32 | 14 | 360 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 433 | 395 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 35 | 220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 200 | 238 | 438 | 109 | 241 | 51 | 8 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA RAW | Columbus Clippers | — | 433 | 377 | 64 | 14 | 0 | 17 | 53 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 272 | 342 | 614 | 172 | 260 | 42 | 12 | 278 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 426 | 384 | 77 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 183 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 267 | 352 | 619 | 151 | 330 | 43 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 426 | 373 | 83 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 43 | 155 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 308 | 413 | 721 | 190 | 319 | 36 | 10 | 317 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 346 | 317 | 51 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 23 | 161 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 222 | 303 | 525 | 142 | 270 | 47 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 346 | 302 | 59 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 38 | 139 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 289 | 371 | 660 | 175 | 301 | 40 | 11 | 295 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | INTL MLE | Navegantes del Magallanes | — | 178 | 142 | 40 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 31 | 56 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 282 | 420 | 648 | 1.068 | 366 | 351 | 31 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | INTL RAW | Navegantes del Magallanes | — | 178 | 142 | 40 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 31 | 56 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 282 | 420 | 648 | 1.068 | 366 | 351 | 31 | 17 | 451 | 191 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | INTL MLE | Leones de Ponce | — | 50 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 280 | 186 | 466 | 23 | 269 | 34 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | INTL RAW | Leones de Ponce | — | 50 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 280 | 186 | 466 | 23 | 269 | 34 | 10 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 136 | 118 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 252 | 288 | 540 | 144 | 239 | 43 | 11 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 188 | 166 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 247 | 211 | 458 | 54 | 258 | 38 | 11 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 550 | 499 | 105 | 25 | 3 | 16 | 44 | 196 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 276 | 369 | 645 | 158 | 297 | 36 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 565 | 516 | 99 | 26 | 2 | 17 | 39 | 212 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 258 | 349 | 607 | 157 | 265 | 38 | 7 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 634 | 559 | 115 | 24 | 2 | 23 | 62 | 249 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 295 | 379 | 674 | 174 | 307 | 39 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 433 | 395 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 35 | 220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 200 | 238 | 438 | 109 | 237 | 51 | 8 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 426 | 388 | 77 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 183 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 267 | 348 | 615 | 149 | 325 | 43 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 346 | 318 | 51 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 23 | 161 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 222 | 302 | 524 | 142 | 260 | 47 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3506 | 3134 | 588 | 135 | 10 | 109 | 306 | 1425 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 266 | 341 | 607 | 154 | 293 | 41 | 9 | 239 | 48 | -216 | +0 | +0 | -63 | +76 | -20.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 109 | 25 | 2 | 20 | 57 | 264 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 266 | 341 | 607 | 153 | 294 | 41 | 9 | 239 | 48 | -40 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -3.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAkron RubberDucks · 314 PAwOBA .286 → .230 (−57)K% 38.2% → 46.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.22% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 46.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.55% | ÷1.019 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.11% | ÷1.008 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 17.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.28% | ÷0.925 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 7.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.64% | ÷0.863 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 6.89% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 102, 2B 85, 3B 80, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .286 → .230; ISO .177 → .147; BABIP .291 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAColumbus Clippers · 268 PAwOBA .285 → .236 (−49)K% 35.4% → 41.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.45% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.58% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.31% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×0.997 | ×1.048 | 19.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.59% | ÷0.958 | ×0.830 | ×0.997 | ×1.048 | 6.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.997 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.135 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 5.35% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .285 → .236; ISO .171 → .131; BABIP .285 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAkron RubberDucks · 126 PAwOBA .382 → .341 (−42)K% 37.3% → 45.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.30% | ÷1.004 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.70% | ÷0.941 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.81% | ÷0.968 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×1.012 | 29.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.86% | ÷0.922 | ×0.860 | ×1.016 | ×1.012 | 11.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷0.980 | ×0.950 | ×1.016 | ×1.012 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.47% | ÷0.840 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 7.97% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 94, 2B 84, 3B 96, K 101, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .382 → .341; ISO .226 → .204; BABIP .439 → .439. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAColumbus Clippers · 433 PAwOBA .271 → .199 (−72)K% 41.8% → 50.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.80% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 50.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.01% | ÷1.089 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 7.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.84% | ÷0.945 | ×0.930 | ×0.958 | ×1.050 | 16.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×1.050 | 5.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.958 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.67% | ÷1.231 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 6.21% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 89, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 98, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .271 → .199; ISO .172 → .116; BABIP .260 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAkron RubberDucks · 579 PAwOBA .357 → .295 (−63)K% 32.1% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.12% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.78% | ÷0.950 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 9.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.90% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | ×0.956 | ×1.042 | 20.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.15% | ÷1.015 | ×0.860 | ×0.956 | ×1.042 | 7.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.956 | ×1.042 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.50% | ÷0.949 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 7.28% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .357 → .295; ISO .224 → .180; BABIP .339 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 460 PAwOBA .368 → .280 (−87)K% 26.5% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.52% | ÷1.031 | ×1.420 | — | — | 36.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.09% | ÷1.046 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.027 | 6.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.17% | ÷1.026 | ×0.940 | ×0.958 | ×1.027 | 19.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×1.027 | 9.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷0.921 | ×0.800 | ×0.958 | ×1.027 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.20% | ÷1.129 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.027 | 5.08% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 84, K 106, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .368 → .280; ISO .220 → .169; BABIP .347 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAkron RubberDucks · 105 PAwOBA .212 → .184 (−28)K% 35.2% → 42.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.24% | ÷1.019 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷0.934 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 6.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.93% | ÷0.971 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 8.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.053 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 2.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.842 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 6.94% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 94, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 104, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .212 → .184; ISO .151 → .135; BABIP .130 → .122. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ALake County Captains · 550 PAwOBA .358 → .276 (−81)K% 25.8% → 35.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.82% | ÷0.986 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.91% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.36% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.28% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×1.030 | 19.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.33% | ÷0.997 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.030 | 8.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷0.951 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×1.030 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.41% | ÷1.042 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 5.07% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 90, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .358 → .276; ISO .214 → .159; BABIP .333 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .