Jake Burger — OGILVIE

Jake Burger1B Texas Rangers

Age 30 R/R 6'0" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 3.738 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION372 act + 248 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 9698vR 104

AVG/OBP/SLG.251 / .309 / .467

PA248

HR12

K%25

BB%6

BABIP294

ISO216

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

5010.9%

xwOBA

650.326

POWER60

Barrel%

7712.2

Avg EV

7390.7

Bat Spd

7774.2

EYE30

Chase%

5830.2%

SPEED55

Sprint

4627.3

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1064 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

309

755

—

wRC+

100

▶R

wOBA

312

316

—

ISO

207

193

◀L

BABIP

266

291

▶R

23.3%

26.8%

◀L

BB%

4.9%

3.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.738 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.3M
2027	Arb-2	$5M	+1.3	$10M	+$5M
2028	Arb-3	$5M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$14M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	21	A	2 teams	—	217	198	45	7	1	6	10	42	8	0	1	227	292	364	655	136	258	19	5	284	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A	2 teams	—	217	194	51	10	2	5	14	30	8	0	1	263	338	412	750	149	287	14	6	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	382	358	80	13	3	12	18	122	4	0	0	223	268	377	646	154	301	32	5	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	382	348	95	19	3	19	28	106	4	0	0	273	334	509	843	236	338	28	7	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	2 teams	—	351	320	73	9	3	10	22	99	7	0	1	228	292	369	661	141	297	28	6	288	79	-8	-0	-4	+1	+10	-0.2
2022	26	MLB	2 teams	—	351	314	79	9	3	13	28	90	7	0	1	252	327	424	750	172	311	26	8	333	113	+5	-0	-4	+1	+10	1.2
2023	27	MLB	2 teams	—	562	512	132	30	1	36	33	153	12	1	1	258	318	531	849	273	293	27	6	362	135	+22	-0	-6	+2	+16	3.5
2023	27	MLB	2 teams	—	562	512	127	29	1	34	33	152	12	1	1	248	309	508	817	260	281	27	6	353	128	+18	-0	-6	+2	+16	3.1
2024	28	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	579	535	140	24	1	31	31	150	9	1	1	262	313	484	797	222	304	26	5	340	118	+12	-0	-7	+2	+16	2.4
2024	28	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	579	535	134	23	1	29	31	150	9	1	1	250	303	460	762	209	292	26	5	333	113	+9	-0	-7	+2	+16	2.1
2025	29	MLB	2 teams	—	416	393	98	19	1	19	15	95	5	1	1	249	286	448	734	198	280	23	4	314	98	-1	-0	-4	-7	+12	-0.1
2025	29	MLB	2 teams	—	416	392	100	19	1	19	16	95	5	1	1	255	293	454	747	199	288	23	4	326	108	+4	-0	-4	-7	+12	0.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	30	MLB	TEX	—	372	338	81	14	0	16	29	98	3	2	0	240	305	423	728	183	288	26	8	319	102	+1	+0	-2	-7	+11	0.3
YTD	30	MLB	TEX	—	372	338	81	14	0	16	29	98	3	2	0	240	305	423	728	183	288	26	8	322	105	+2	+0	-2	-7	+11	0.4
ROS	30	MLB	TEX	100%	248	227	57	11	1	12	16	63	3	1	0	251	309	467	776	216	290	25	6	333	113	+4	+0	+1	-4	+7	0.7
ROS	30	MLB	TEX	100%	248	227	57	11	1	12	16	63	3	1	0	251	309	467	776	216	292	25	6	328	109	+3	+0	+1	-4	+7	0.6
FULL	30	MLB	TEX	—	620	565	138	25	1	28	45	161	6	3	0	244	307	441	748	196	290	26	7	322	105	+3	+1	-2	-11	+18	0.9
TOT	30	MLB	TEX	—	620	565	138	25	1	28	45	161	6	3	0	244	307	441	748	196	290	26	7	325	107	+5	+1	-2	-11	+18	1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	TEX	100%	608	558	136	27	1	28	39	157	6	3	0	244	300	446	746	203	287	26	6	329	110	+7	+1	-1	-11	+17	1.3
2028	32	MLB	TEX	100%	595	546	130	25	1	27	38	156	6	2	0	238	295	436	731	198	282	26	6	322	104	+3	+0	-2	-11	+17	0.8
2029	33	MLB	TEX	100%	514	472	111	21	1	23	32	137	5	2	0	235	291	430	721	195	275	27	6	313	98	-1	+0	-3	-9	+15	0.2
2030	34	MLB	TEX	100%	434	400	89	16	1	18	27	119	4	1	0	223	278	403	681	180	267	27	6	302	89	-5	+0	-3	-8	+12	-0.4
2027	31	MLB	TEX	100%	608	558	138	27	1	29	39	157	6	3	0	247	303	455	759	208	289	26	6	323	106	+4	+1	-1	-11	+17	1.0
2028	32	MLB	TEX	100%	595	546	132	26	1	27	38	156	6	2	0	242	298	441	740	200	284	26	6	316	100	+0	+0	-2	-11	+17	0.5
2029	33	MLB	TEX	100%	514	472	111	21	1	23	32	137	5	2	0	235	291	430	721	195	277	27	6	308	94	-4	+0	-3	-9	+15	-0.0
2030	34	MLB	TEX	100%	434	400	90	16	1	19	27	119	4	1	0	225	281	412	693	187	268	27	6	297	85	-7	+0	-3	-8	+12	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4119	3792	921	179	10	198	241	1095	53	12	3	243	297	452	749	209	287	27	6	323	105	+24	+1	-27	-44	+117	7.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	145	28	2	31	38	173	8	2	0	242	296	452	748	209	286	27	6	323	105	+4	+0	-4	-7	+18	1.2
Career	—			—	4906	4519	1091	202	15	222	281	1293	69	12	5	241	296	440	736	199	287	26	6	319	102	+13	+0	-27	-47	+139	8.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	144	27	2	29	37	171	9	2	1	240	295	437	732	197	285	26	6	319	102	+2	+0	-4	-6	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	21	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	200	181	49	9	2	4	13	28	5	0	1	271	337	409	746	138	300	14	6	333	113	+3	-0	—	—	+6	0.8
2017	21	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	17	13	2	1	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	154	353	462	814	308	100	12	6	369	140	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2021	25	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	42	38	10	3	1	1	4	15	0	0	0	263	333	474	807	211	409	36	10	354	129	+1	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.5
2021	25	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	340	310	85	16	2	18	24	91	4	0	0	274	334	513	847	239	330	27	7	368	140	+15	+0	—	—	+10	2.6
2022	26	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	183	168	42	9	1	8	10	56	3	0	0	250	304	458	762	208	324	31	5	332	112	+2	+0	-4	+1	+5	0.5
2022	26	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	168	146	37	0	2	5	18	34	4	0	1	253	351	384	735	130	299	20	11	335	115	+3	-0	—	—	+5	0.7
2023	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	540	492	123	28	1	34	32	149	12	1	1	250	312	518	830	268	284	28	6	359	133	+20	-0	-6	+2	+15	3.2
2023	27	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	22	20	4	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	200	238	250	488	50	222	14	5	213	22	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	28	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	579	535	134	23	1	29	31	150	9	1	1	250	303	460	762	209	292	26	5	333	113	+9	-0	-7	+2	+16	2.1
2025	29	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	376	356	84	15	1	16	12	93	5	1	1	236	271	419	689	183	272	25	3	301	89	-5	-0	-4	-7	+11	-0.6
2025	29	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	40	36	16	4	0	3	4	2	0	0	0	444	500	806	1.306	361	419	5	10	558	285	+8	+0	—	—	+1	1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1720	1589	393	78	5	88	89	463	29	3	3	247	299	469	768	222	290	27	5	335	114	+28	-1	-20	-1	+49	5.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Davislast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,630 PA	13	5,630	295	19	233	315	459	-96	-102	6.3	9.8
	/162	664	35	2	233	315	459	-11.3	-12.0	0.7	pk7: 13
#2C.J. Cronlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,043 PA	10	4,043	187	10	260	320	471	-72	-46	8.9	8.9
#2C.J. Cronlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,043 PA	/162	664	31	2	260	320	471	-11.9	-7.6	1.5	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	4,807	230	16	243	294	450	-86	-42	7.4	7.6
	/162	664	32	2	243	294	450	-11.9	-5.8	1.0	pk7: 8
#3Mark Trumbolast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 4,372 PA	8	4,372	218	23	250	303	462	-58	-63	6.2	6.6
	/162	664	33	3	250	303	462	-8.9	-9.6	0.9	pk7: 7
#4Mitch Morelandlast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,536 PA	12	4,536	186	11	251	318	446	-81	-56	5.9	6.1
	/162	664	27	2	251	318	446	-11.9	-8.1	0.9	pk7: 6
#5Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	8	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
	/162	664	31	2	238	315	455	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#6Justin Smoaklast yr '20 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,750 PA	11	4,750	196	3	229	322	419	-85	-77	1.9	3.8
	/162	664	27	0	229	322	419	-11.9	-10.7	0.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Burger (OGILVIE)	30	50	60	55	30	244/307/441	196	290	28	3	26%	7%	107	+1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andy Phillips 2006 · MLB	29	45→55	59→55	49→40	45	247/298/452	205	276	28	6	23%	6%	109	+2.4	252/302/407	155	288	18	6	19%	6%	98	+1.6	267/318/394	127	298	15	3	15%	6%	100	+0.9
●Joey Meneses 2023 · MLB	31	51→57	56→60	47→40	42	265/306/454	189	310	24	3	23%	5%	113	+2.6	250/299/388	138	299	15	3	21%	6%	92	+1.2	240/291/361	121	288	11	1	20%	6%	79	+0.3
●Mark Trumbo 2016 · MLB	30	48→52	57→65	43→45	46	252/306/448	195	298	25	3	25%	7%	111	+2.5	245/301/448	203	285	29	2	25%	7%	110	+2.4	239/297/440	201	274	30	1	25%	7%	104	+1.8
✕Jose Leon 2007 · MLB	30	48	57→55	49→30	42	253/297/443	189	298	26	5	25%	5%	107	+2.2	257/307/419	162	303	21	5	22%	6%	105	+2.1	262/314/418	156	312	20	1	22%	6%	102	+0.7
✕Frank Schwindel 2022 · MLB	30	50→53	59→60	44→30	44	265/304/473	208	283	27	4	18%	5%	118	+3.0	242/288/404	162	278	20	5	21%	6%	92	+1.2	220/265/346	126	256	16	0	21%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Kyle Garlick 2023 · MLB	31	43→50	59→60	48→40	40	236/292/440	204	298	29	5	31%	6%	105	+2.1	190/259/337	147	277	19	4	37%	7%	63	-0.8	161/235/289	128	238	17	2	39%	8%	40	-2.0
✕Matt Davidson 2022 · MLB	31	43→44	63→60	46→30	40	238/295/466	228	299	32	3	32%	6%	112	+2.6	237/310/444	207	311	30	5	33%	7%	113	+2.6	215/304/418	204	277	32	0	34%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Jared Walsh 2023 · MLB	30	48→54	58→65	45→30	44	250/307/452	202	308	26	4	28%	7%	113	+2.6	196/274/352	156	290	20	4	37%	9%	74	-0.1	147/241/279	132	226	19	1	42%	10%	40	-1.1
●John Lindsey 2008 · AAA	31	50→53	57→65	46→30	40	260/313/458	198	307	25	3	24%	5%	118	+3.0	247/309/419	172	296	20	2	24%	6%	105	+2.1	229/309/457	227	279	33	0	30%	7%	114	+2.0
✕Shelley Duncan 2010 · MLB	30	41→45	58→60	48→45	49	228/297/431	203	253	27	5	23%	8%	104	+2.0	227/300/407	180	266	23	4	24%	9%	99	+1.7	219/300/395	176	256	23	2	24%	9%	91	+0.7
✕Jake Fox 2011 · MLB	29	47→54	58→65	47→45	44	251/309/461	209	283	26	4	22%	6%	117	+2.9	217/274/364	147	256	16	3	22%	5%	76	+0.1	222/278/389	167	248	21	0	21%	5%	83	+0.4
●Seth Brown 2022 · MLB	30	40→49	63→65	51→50	42	228/285/462	234	274	31	9	30%	7%	107	+2.2	237/301/446	209	286	27	9	27%	8%	109	+2.4	238/301/434	195	289	26	8	27%	8%	102	+1.5
●Randal Grichuk 2021 · MLB	29	45→50	61→70	44→45	43	246/295/467	220	280	29	4	25%	6%	112	+2.6	240/286/413	173	278	22	3	22%	5%	94	+1.3	255/310/448	193	290	21	1	20%	6%	110	+1.5
✕Mike Bianucci 2015 · AAA	29	44→40	59→65	46→40	40	242/283/449	207	277	29	4	25%	5%	103	+1.9	243/279/450	207	290	29	7	27%	4%	102	+1.8	237/264/473	236	269	37	2	28%	3%	99	+0.6
✕Aderlin Rodríguez 2022 · AAA	30	45→47	57→60	45→30	38	239/287/438	199	300	26	4	30%	5%	102	+1.8	222/279/386	164	294	21	6	31%	6%	85	+0.7	172/242/316	144	219	21	0	32%	5%	53	-0.5
✕Micah Hoffpauir 2010 · MLB	30	48→47	57→65	50→40	46	252/297/453	201	272	25	6	18%	6%	109	+2.4	234/290/426	192	258	23	5	20%	7%	99	+1.7	224/284/428	204	241	25	1	19%	7%	96	+1.4
●Christian Walker 2020 · MLB	29	44→53	56→60	50→45	47	234/307/427	193	288	25	7	28%	9%	107	+2.2	244/319/426	182	292	22	4	24%	9%	111	+2.5	241/326/460	219	262	29	5	21%	10%	119	+3.2
●Chris Colabello 2013 · AA	29	48→58	59→60	47→40	43	256/308/463	208	289	27	3	23%	5%	117	+2.9	261/316/455	194	327	26	3	27%	7%	118	+3.0	269/324/459	190	344	25	2	28%	7%	120	+2.6
✕Bobby Dalbec 2023 · MLB	28	42	59→60	53→50	41	226/291/432	206	298	28	6	34%	7%	102	+1.8	210/282/396	186	316	25	12	39%	8%	89	+0.9	197/272/380	184	302	25	13	41%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Donnie Murphy 2013 · MLB	30	43→40	58→65	48→45	44	232/297/443	211	273	26	5	26%	7%	107	+2.2	209/274/366	157	263	19	6	28%	6%	77	+0.1	192/258/327	135	242	17	4	28%	6%	58	-0.6