Jake Burger
1B Texas Rangers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28 | MLBMIA | 579 | .250/.303/.460 | 29 | 1 | 118 | 2.1 | |
| 2025 | 29 | AAATEX | 40 | .444/.500/.806 | 3 | 0 | 197 | — | .378/.425/.649 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLBTEX | 376 | .236/.271/.419 | 16 | 1 | 86 | -1.0 | |
| 2026 | 30 | MLBTEX | 620 | .228/.304/.421 | 28 | 4 | 98 | -0.1 | |
| 2027PROJ | 31 | MLBTEX | 468 | .248/.309/.461 | 24 | 4 | 110 | 0.9 | |
| 2028PROJ | 32 | MLBTEX | 551 | .241/.302/.445 | 27 | 1 | 104 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ | 33 | MLBTEX | 450 | .232/.292/.425 | 21 | 0 | 96 | -0.4 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 200 | 181 | 49 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 271 | 337 | 409 | 746 | 138 | 300 | 14 | 6 | 333 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 17 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 353 | 462 | 814 | 308 | 100 | 12 | 6 | 369 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 42 | 38 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 474 | 807 | 211 | 409 | 36 | 10 | 354 | 124 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 340 | 310 | 85 | 16 | 2 | 18 | 24 | 91 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 274 | 334 | 513 | 847 | 239 | 330 | 27 | 7 | 368 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 183 | 168 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 56 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 304 | 458 | 762 | 208 | 324 | 31 | 5 | 332 | 107 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 168 | 146 | 37 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 253 | 351 | 384 | 735 | 130 | 299 | 20 | 11 | 335 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 540 | 492 | 123 | 28 | 1 | 34 | 32 | 149 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 312 | 518 | 830 | 268 | 284 | 28 | 6 | 359 | 139 | +25 | -0 | -6 | +2 | +12 | 3.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 22 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 238 | 250 | 488 | 50 | 222 | 14 | 5 | 213 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 579 | 535 | 134 | 23 | 1 | 29 | 31 | 150 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 303 | 460 | 762 | 209 | 292 | 26 | 5 | 333 | 118 | +13 | -0 | -7 | +2 | +13 | 2.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 376 | 356 | 84 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 93 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 236 | 271 | 419 | 689 | 183 | 272 | 25 | 3 | 301 | 86 | -6 | -0 | -4 | -7 | +8 | -1.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 40 | 36 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 444 | 500 | 806 | 1.306 | 361 | 419 | 5 | 10 | 558 | 197 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 620 | 556 | 127 | 23 | 0 | 28 | 56 | 167 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 304 | 421 | 724 | 192 | 271 | 27 | 9 | 320 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -2 | -11 | +13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 2340 | 2145 | 520 | 101 | 5 | 116 | 145 | 630 | 33 | 7 | 5 | 242 | 300 | 456 | 757 | 214 | 286 | 27 | 6 | 331 | 110 | +28 | -1 | -22 | -12 | +51 | 4.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 200 | 185 | 45 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 243 | 296 | 368 | 664 | 124 | 279 | 19 | 4 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 17 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 353 | 462 | 814 | 308 | 69 | 18 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 42 | 38 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 474 | 807 | 211 | 409 | 36 | 10 | 352 | 124 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 340 | 318 | 72 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 108 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 272 | 381 | 653 | 154 | 299 | 32 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 183 | 169 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 56 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 249 | 298 | 456 | 754 | 207 | 324 | 31 | 5 | 326 | 107 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 168 | 152 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 42 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 286 | 276 | 562 | 66 | 279 | 25 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 540 | 492 | 129 | 31 | 1 | 36 | 32 | 149 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 262 | 323 | 549 | 872 | 287 | 284 | 28 | 6 | 374 | 139 | +25 | -0 | -6 | +2 | +12 | 3.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 22 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 238 | 250 | 488 | 50 | 209 | 18 | 5 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 579 | 537 | 139 | 25 | 1 | 31 | 29 | 150 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 259 | 308 | 482 | 790 | 223 | 292 | 26 | 5 | 343 | 118 | +13 | -0 | -7 | +2 | +13 | 2.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 376 | 356 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 93 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 236 | 271 | 413 | 684 | 177 | 272 | 25 | 3 | 296 | 86 | -6 | -0 | -4 | -7 | +8 | -1.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 40 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 378 | 425 | 649 | 1.074 | 270 | 362 | 5 | 8 | 460 | 197 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 620 | 556 | 126 | 24 | 0 | 26 | 56 | 167 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 227 | 302 | 410 | 712 | 183 | 271 | 27 | 9 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -2 | -11 | +13 | -0.1 |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 217 | 198 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 237 | 301 | 374 | 675 | 136 | 275 | 19 | 5 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 217 | 194 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 263 | 338 | 412 | 750 | 149 | 287 | 14 | 6 | 336 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 382 | 356 | 82 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 123 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 279 | 390 | 669 | 160 | 314 | 32 | 5 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 382 | 348 | 95 | 19 | 3 | 19 | 28 | 106 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 334 | 509 | 843 | 236 | 338 | 28 | 7 | 367 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 351 | 321 | 74 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 98 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 292 | 371 | 663 | 140 | 299 | 28 | 6 | 296 | 86 | -6 | -0 | -4 | +1 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 351 | 314 | 79 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 90 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 252 | 327 | 424 | 750 | 172 | 311 | 26 | 8 | 333 | 86 | -6 | -0 | -4 | +1 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 512 | 132 | 31 | 1 | 36 | 33 | 153 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 258 | 318 | 533 | 851 | 275 | 293 | 27 | 6 | 367 | 134 | +23 | -0 | -6 | +2 | +12 | 3.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 562 | 512 | 127 | 29 | 1 | 34 | 33 | 152 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 248 | 309 | 508 | 817 | 260 | 281 | 27 | 6 | 353 | 134 | +23 | -0 | -6 | +2 | +12 | 3.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 579 | 537 | 139 | 25 | 1 | 31 | 29 | 150 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 259 | 308 | 482 | 790 | 223 | 300 | 26 | 5 | 343 | 118 | +13 | -0 | -7 | +2 | +13 | 2.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB RAW | Miami Marlins | — | 579 | 535 | 134 | 23 | 1 | 29 | 31 | 150 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 303 | 460 | 762 | 209 | 292 | 26 | 5 | 333 | 118 | +13 | -0 | -7 | +2 | +13 | 2.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 416 | 393 | 97 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 15 | 95 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 247 | 283 | 430 | 713 | 183 | 282 | 23 | 4 | 312 | 97 | -1 | -0 | -4 | -7 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 416 | 392 | 100 | 19 | 1 | 19 | 16 | 95 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 293 | 454 | 747 | 199 | 288 | 23 | 4 | 326 | 97 | -1 | -0 | -4 | -7 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 620 | 556 | 126 | 24 | 0 | 26 | 56 | 167 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 227 | 302 | 410 | 712 | 183 | 272 | 27 | 9 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -2 | -11 | +13 | -0.1 |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB RAW | Texas Rangers | — | 620 | 556 | 127 | 23 | 0 | 28 | 56 | 167 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 304 | 421 | 724 | 192 | 271 | 27 | 9 | 320 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -2 | -11 | +13 | -0.1 |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 217 | 197 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 239 | 301 | 376 | 677 | 137 | 263 | 19 | 5 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 382 | 355 | 82 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 123 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 279 | 392 | 670 | 161 | 311 | 32 | 5 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 351 | 320 | 74 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 98 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 292 | 372 | 664 | 141 | 302 | 28 | 6 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 562 | 512 | 132 | 31 | 1 | 36 | 33 | 153 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 258 | 318 | 533 | 851 | 275 | 281 | 27 | 6 | 367 | 134 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 579 | 536 | 139 | 25 | 1 | 31 | 29 | 150 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 259 | 308 | 483 | 791 | 224 | 292 | 26 | 5 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 416 | 393 | 97 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 15 | 95 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 247 | 283 | 430 | 713 | 183 | 281 | 23 | 4 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 620 | 555 | 126 | 24 | 0 | 26 | 56 | 167 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 227 | 302 | 411 | 713 | 184 | 271 | 27 | 9 | 314 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 579 | 536 | 139 | 25 | 1 | 31 | 29 | 150 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 259 | 308 | 483 | 791 | 224 | 292 | 26 | 5 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 416 | 393 | 97 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 15 | 95 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 247 | 283 | 430 | 713 | 183 | 281 | 23 | 4 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 620 | 555 | 126 | 24 | 0 | 26 | 56 | 167 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 227 | 302 | 411 | 713 | 184 | 271 | 27 | 9 | 314 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB MLE | TEX | 100% | 540 | 492 | 120 | 22 | 1 | 25 | 38 | 139 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 245 | 307 | 448 | 755 | 203 | 287 | 26 | 7 | 331 | 110 | +6 | +0 | +1 | -10 | +12 | 1.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB CTX | TEX | 100% | 468 | 428 | 106 | 18 | 1 | 24 | 33 | 121 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 248 | 309 | 461 | 770 | 213 | 287 | 26 | 7 | 337 | 110 | +6 | +0 | +1 | -8 | +10 | 0.9 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 32 | MLB MLE | TEX | 100% | 551 | 502 | 120 | 21 | 1 | 25 | 39 | 145 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 238 | 299 | 432 | 731 | 194 | 281 | 26 | 7 | 321 | 104 | +2 | -0 | -3 | -10 | +12 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB MLE | TEX | 100% | 450 | 412 | 95 | 16 | 0 | 20 | 31 | 121 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 289 | 413 | 703 | 183 | 273 | 27 | 7 | 309 | 96 | -2 | +0 | -4 | -8 | +10 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB CTX | TEX | 100% | 551 | 502 | 121 | 20 | 1 | 27 | 39 | 145 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 302 | 445 | 746 | 204 | 281 | 26 | 7 | 327 | 104 | +2 | -0 | -3 | -10 | +12 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB CTX | TEX | 100% | 450 | 412 | 96 | 16 | 0 | 21 | 31 | 121 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 292 | 425 | 717 | 192 | 273 | 27 | 7 | 315 | 96 | -2 | +0 | -4 | -8 | +10 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3341 | 3059 | 737 | 137 | 6 | 164 | 215 | 896 | 42 | 8 | 6 | 241 | 300 | 450 | 750 | 210 | 284 | 27 | 6 | 328 | 103 | +28 | -1 | -28 | -30 | +72 | 4.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 144 | 27 | 1 | 32 | 42 | 174 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 242 | 301 | 452 | 753 | 210 | 285 | 27 | 6 | 328 | 103 | +5 | -0 | -6 | -6 | +14 | 0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4596 | 4215 | 1017 | 187 | 13 | 204 | 287 | 1214 | 62 | 12 | 9 | 241 | 299 | 437 | 736 | 196 | 288 | 26 | 6 | 321 | 103 | +34 | -0 | -28 | -38 | +83 | 5.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 144 | 26 | 2 | 29 | 41 | 172 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 242 | 301 | 438 | 739 | 196 | 288 | 26 | 6 | 321 | 103 | +6 | -0 | -5 | -6 | +14 | 0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAARound Rock Express · 40 PAwOBA .542 → .460 (−82)K% 5.0% → 5.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.00% | ÷1.086 | ×1.200 | — | — | 5.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.47% | ÷1.053 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 22.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 10.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.82% | ÷0.913 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 6.64% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .542 → .460; ISO .361 → .299; BABIP .419 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 22 PAwOBA .218 → .200 (−18)K% 13.6% → 16.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷1.078 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 2.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷0.967 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 17.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.971 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 5.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.152 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 93, 2B 94, 3B 99, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .218 → .200; ISO .050 → .045; BABIP .222 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 168 PAwOBA .327 → .263 (−64)K% 20.2% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.24% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.38% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.79% | ÷1.003 | ×0.930 | ×1.002 | ×1.018 | 25.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | ×1.002 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×1.018 | 1.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.46% | ÷1.421 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.24% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .327 → .263; ISO .130 → .080; BABIP .299 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAACharlotte Knights · 340 PAwOBA .359 → .279 (−80)K% 26.8% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.76% | ÷1.011 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.76% | ÷1.053 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.37% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×1.019 | ×1.033 | 22.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.31% | ÷1.128 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×1.033 | 5.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×1.033 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.22% | ÷1.190 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.99% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 126, 3B 104, K 102, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .359 → .279; ISO .239 → .153; BABIP .330 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AKannapolis Intimidators · 200 PAwOBA .326 → .283 (−43)K% 14.0% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.00% | ÷0.979 | ×1.340 | — | — | 19.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.50% | ÷0.975 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 4.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.001 | ×0.920 | ×1.037 | ×1.015 | 21.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.070 | ×0.820 | ×1.037 | ×1.015 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.31% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.037 | ×1.015 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.61% | ÷0.824 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 2.64% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 100, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .326 → .283; ISO .138 → .123; BABIP .300 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKACL White Sox · 17 PAwOBA .359 → .263 (−97)K% 11.8% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 3.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 17.65% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 12.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 6.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 6.98% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .359 → .263; ISO .308 → .240; BABIP .100 → .069. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).