Christian Fernandez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Christian Fernandez P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%21.3%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	16	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 2	16	0	35	154	34	21	3	0%	2.2	15.0%	17.0%	-2.0%	2.7%	4.84	5.49	—
2016	16	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 2	16	0	35	154	34	21	3	0%	2.2	22.1%	13.6%	8.4%	1.9%	4.84	4.06	—
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	14	14	61	246	52	24	2	100%	4.3	14.4%	12.2%	2.2%	1.1%	3.41	4.06	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	14	14	61	246	52	24	2	100%	4.3	21.1%	9.8%	11.4%	0.8%	3.41	3.00	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	14	10	59	248	62	25	4	71%	4.2	17.0%	12.6%	4.4%	2.3%	2.61	4.50	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	14	10	59	248	62	25	4	71%	4.2	25.0%	10.1%	14.9%	1.6%	2.61	3.15	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	14	87	374	113	42	10	58%	3.6	22.6%	13.1%	9.5%	3.6%	4.15	4.85	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	14	87	374	113	42	10	58%	3.6	30.2%	11.2%	19.0%	2.7%	4.15	3.45	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	30	8	83	370	89	42	7	27%	2.8	18.5%	13.1%	5.5%	2.0%	4.57	4.26	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	30	8	83	370	89	42	7	27%	2.8	18.5%	13.1%	5.5%	2.0%	4.57	4.26	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	30	8	83	370	89	42	7	27%	2.8	24.1%	11.4%	12.7%	1.9%	4.57	3.57	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	11.4%	10.0%	2.9%	4.74	4.74	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	OAK	54	0	57	241	52	27	7	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.2%	10.3%	3.0%	4.72	4.73	-0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	OAK	53	0	55	233	50	26	7	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.2%	10.3%	3.1%	4.75	4.79	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	OAK	20	0	21	89	19	10	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.2%	10.3%	3.0%	4.72	4.73	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	OAK	31	0	33	139	30	16	4	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.2%	10.3%	3.1%	4.75	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	0	53	226	49	25	7	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.2%	10.3%	3.1%	4.74	4.39	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	93	26	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.2%	10.3%	3.1%	4.74	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		98	46	324	1392	254	185	33	47%	3.3	18.2%	13.3%	4.9%	2.4%	3.92	4.56	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	28	200	859	157	114	21	47%	3.3	18.2%	13.3%	4.9%	2.4%	3.92	4.56	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Fernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	21.3%	11.4%	2.9%	—	4.76	21.5%	10.3%	112	+0.02	—	—	—
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	80
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	80
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	80
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	79
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	79
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	79
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	78
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	78
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	78
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	78
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	77
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	77
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	77
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	77
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	77
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.83	14.2%	5.0%	81	+1.12	4.43	239	77
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	76
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.39	16.6%	6.3%	297	+0.17	3.64	392	76
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	21.5%	11.3%	1.17	4.74
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Bill Risley ('98)	1.1	55	21.9%	10.9%	1.26	3.98
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35