Michael Soroka
P
Arizona Diamondbacks
+0.6
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'5" / 250 lbs
MLB
Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.1 · 2027
ERA4.59
FIP4.37
xFIP3.08
SIERA2.91
K%24.3%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%15.3%
IP80
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2027
K†5565
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p9030.1%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
SL+2.2 (32%)
CT+1.1 (12%)
CH (11%)
SI (11%)
CU (32%)
FB-2.0 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | Danville Braves | 10 | 9 | 34 | 143 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 17.6% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 2.17 | +1.1 |
| 2016 | 18 | A | Rome Braves | 25 | 24 | 143 | 585 | 125 | 32 | 3 | 15.8% | 6.5% | 0.7% | 3.02 | 2.96 | +3.8 |
| 2017 | 19 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 26 | 26 | 154 | 627 | 125 | 34 | 10 | 16.1% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 2.75 | 3.64 | +2.9 |
| 2018 | 20 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 11 | 11 | 56 | 228 | 55 | 13 | 1 | 22.2% | 6.1% | 0.5% | 2.56 | 2.28 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 21 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 31 | 31 | 184 | 734 | 152 | 41 | 15 | 20.3% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 2.74 | 3.15 | +4.5 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 3 | 3 | 14 | 57 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 3.95 | 3.47 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 6 | 6 | 25 | 103 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 16.8% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 5.40 | 4.79 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 24 | 23 | 119 | 500 | 121 | 40 | 15 | 22.0% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 3.98 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 31 | 9 | 88 | 379 | 96 | 45 | 14 | 24.2% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 4.62 | 4.58 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 26 | 20 | 104 | 438 | 116 | 34 | 16 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 4.41 | 3.76 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3 | 3 | 16 | 67 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 34.3% | 9.0% | 1.5% | 2.87 | 2.15 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 72 | 25 | 8 | 26.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 3.87 | 3.72 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 80 | 339 | 95 | 31 | 9 | 27.9% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 3.67 | 3.41 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 92 | 28 | 10 | 27.9% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.04 | 3.90 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 88 | 27 | 10 | 27.3% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.01 | 3.99 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 83 | 26 | 10 | 26.7% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.06 | 4.10 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 78 | 26 | 10 | 26.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.15 | 4.21 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 72 | 25 | 10 | 25.4% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.26 | 4.34 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 67 | 24 | 10 | 24.7% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.39 | 4.48 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 61 | 24 | 9 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 55 | 23 | 9 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 4.69 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 196 | 165 | 936 | 3861 | 778 | 281 | 80 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 3.43 | 3.46 | +19.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 35 | 200 | 825 | 166 | 60 | 17 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 3.43 | 3.46 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Soroka (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 23.7% | 9.1% | 3.3% | — | 3.99 | 27.3% | 18.9% | 228 | -0.45 | — | — | — |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 74 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 73 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 73 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 73 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 73 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 72 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 72 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.69 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.74 | 3.69 | 283 | 72 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 72 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 72 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 71 |
| Luke Irvine R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 71 |
| Tim Atherton R 2023 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 71 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 71 |
| Jason Berken R 2029 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 70 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.0% | .274 | 4.61 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.33 | 3.40 | 556 | 70 |
| Scott McGregor R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 70 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.48 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | .333 | 4.46 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | -0.02 | 3.70 | 381 | 70 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.09 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.04 | 4.09 | 165 | 70 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2018
Service 8.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.6 | $2M | -$4M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $10M | +1.1 | $9M | -$0.9M |
| Totals | $17M | $11M | -$5M | ||