Michael Soroka — OGILVIE

Michael Soroka P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION103 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.75

FIP3.73

K%23.4%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%16.1%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p5523.1%

xwOBA vs

p440.319

SL+2.2 (33%)

CT+1.1 (12%)

CH (12%)

SI (10%)

CU (32%)

FB-2.0 (43%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.052 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.3M
Totals		$0.6M		$0.9M	+$0.3M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$10.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	17	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	10	9	34	143	37	5	0	90%	3.4	17.6%	4.4%	13.2%	0.0%	3.18	2.17	—
2015	17	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	10	9	34	143	37	5	0	90%	3.4	25.9%	3.5%	22.4%	0.0%	3.18	1.36	—
2016	18	A MLE	Rome Braves	25	24	143	585	125	32	3	96%	5.7	15.8%	6.5%	9.4%	0.7%	3.02	2.96	—
2016	18	A RAW	Rome Braves	25	24	143	585	125	32	3	96%	5.7	21.4%	5.5%	15.9%	0.5%	3.02	2.30	—
2017	19	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	26	26	154	627	125	34	10	100%	5.9	16.1%	6.0%	10.2%	2.1%	2.75	3.63	—
2017	19	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	26	26	154	627	125	34	10	100%	5.9	19.9%	5.4%	14.5%	1.6%	2.75	2.98	—
2018	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	56	228	55	13	1	100%	5.1	22.2%	6.1%	16.1%	0.5%	2.56	2.25	+1.9
2018	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	11	56	228	55	13	1	100%	5.1	24.1%	5.7%	18.4%	0.4%	2.56	2.07	+2.1
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	184	734	152	41	15	100%	5.9	20.3%	5.7%	14.6%	2.0%	2.74	3.21	+3.9
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	184	734	152	41	15	100%	5.9	20.7%	5.6%	15.1%	2.0%	2.74	3.18	+4.0
2020	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	3	3	14	57	8	7	0	100%	4.6	14.0%	12.3%	1.8%	0.0%	3.95	3.47	+0.2
2020	22	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	3	3	14	57	8	7	0	100%	4.6	14.0%	12.3%	1.8%	0.0%	3.95	3.47	+0.2
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	25	103	25	7	3	100%	4.2	16.8%	8.3%	8.6%	3.8%	5.40	4.80	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	25	103	25	7	3	100%	4.2	24.3%	6.8%	17.5%	2.9%	5.40	3.50	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	119	500	121	40	15	96%	5.0	21.1%	7.4%	13.6%	3.1%	4.22	3.99	+1.3
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	119	500	121	40	15	96%	5.0	21.1%	7.4%	13.6%	3.1%	4.22	3.99	+1.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	119	500	121	40	15	96%	5.0	24.2%	8.0%	16.2%	3.0%	4.22	3.71	+1.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	9	88	379	96	45	14	29%	2.8	24.2%	12.4%	11.8%	3.7%	4.62	4.65	-0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	9	88	379	96	45	14	29%	2.8	24.2%	12.4%	11.8%	3.7%	4.62	4.65	-0.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	9	88	379	96	45	14	29%	2.8	25.3%	11.9%	13.5%	3.7%	4.62	4.53	+0.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	20	104	438	116	34	16	77%	4.0	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	3.3%	4.41	3.76	+1.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	20	104	438	116	34	16	77%	4.0	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	3.3%	4.41	3.76	+1.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	20	104	438	116	34	16	77%	4.0	26.5%	7.8%	18.7%	3.7%	4.41	3.85	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			110	87	515	2153	474	162	56	79%	4.7	22.0%	7.5%	14.5%	2.6%	3.79	3.62	+8.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	20	19	103	428	96	26	7	95%	5.2	23.1%	5.8%	17.3%	1.8%	3.48	2.88	+2.6
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	20	19	103	428	96	26	7	95%	5.2	23.1%	5.8%	17.3%	1.8%	3.48	2.88	+2.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	ARI	1	1	4	17	1	2	0	100%	4.0	5.9%	11.8%	-5.9%	0.0%	2.25	4.09	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	ARI	19	18	99	411	95	24	7	95%	5.2	23.1%	5.8%	17.3%	1.7%	3.53	2.82	+2.6
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	ARI	19	18	99	411	95	24	7	95%	5.2	23.1%	5.8%	17.3%	1.7%	3.53	2.82	+2.6
ROS	28	MLB MLE	ARI	2	2	9	38	9	3	1	100%	4.6	23.4%	7.3%	16.1%	3.1%	3.75	3.73	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	ARI	2	2	9	38	9	3	1	100%	4.5	23.4%	7.3%	16.1%	2.9%	3.65	3.63	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	112	466	105	29	8	—	—	22.5%	6.2%	16.3%	1.8%	3.51	2.95	+2.8
FULL	28	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	108	458	105	29	8	—	—	22.9%	6.3%	16.6%	1.8%	3.63	2.93	+2.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	76	323	80	22	9	100%	5.9	24.9%	6.7%	18.2%	2.7%	3.79	3.73	+1.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	72	304	73	21	9	100%	6.0	24.2%	7.0%	17.2%	2.9%	3.88	3.94	+0.8
2029	31	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	67	283	66	21	9	100%	6.1	23.4%	7.3%	16.1%	3.2%	4.06	4.17	+0.6
2030	32	MLB MLE	ARI	10	10	62	262	59	20	9	100%	6.2	22.6%	7.8%	14.9%	3.4%	4.28	4.43	+0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	76	321	80	21	8	100%	5.8	24.9%	6.7%	18.2%	2.6%	3.71	3.65	+1.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	72	304	73	21	8	100%	6.0	24.2%	7.0%	17.2%	2.8%	3.79	3.85	+0.8
2029	31	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	67	283	66	21	8	100%	6.1	23.4%	7.3%	16.1%	3.0%	3.96	4.07	+0.6
2030	32	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	62	262	59	20	8	100%	6.2	22.6%	7.8%	14.9%	3.2%	4.18	4.33	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		158	135	802	3363	762	249	91	85%	5.1	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	2.7%	3.83	3.61	+12.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	34	200	839	190	62	23	85%	5.1	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	2.7%	3.83	3.61	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		213	181	1024	4222	849	295	88	85%	4.8	20.1%	7.0%	13.1%	2.1%	3.45	3.44	+10.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	35	200	825	166	58	17	85%	4.8	20.1%	7.0%	13.1%	2.1%	3.45	3.44	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Soroka (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	23.9%	9.0%	3.3%	—	3.94	24.2%	17.2%	215	-0.48	—	—	—
Nathan Eovaldi R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	28	SP	3.49	22.2%	4.2%	3.2%	.283	3.44	25.1%	19.2%	298	-0.05	2.44	1,378	71
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	69
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	287	69
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	68
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	68
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	68
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	68
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	68
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	68
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,146	68
Joe Ross R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	28	SP	3.95	23.7%	6.5%	3.7%	.266	3.90	19.5%	10.6%	86	-0.05	3.19	807	67
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	981	66
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	66
Nick Tropeano R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	28	SP-	4.96	20.3%	9.2%	4.4%	.336	3.93	22.7%	10.0%	83	-1.03	2.34	446	66
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	65
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	65
Sean O'Sullivan R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	28	SP	3.63	16.3%	6.4%	2.0%	.332	5.76	11.9%	0.2%	36	+2.13	3.63	290	65
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	65
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	65
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	72	23.8%	7.6%	1.20	4.09
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84