Michael Soroka
P
Arizona Diamondbacks
Age 28
RHP
6'5" / 250 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.6 · 2027
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10091vR 82
ERA3.47
FIP3.44
K%23.8%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%16.7%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p2822.2%
K%
p5823.7%
xwOBA vs
p530.309
SL+2.2 (33%)
CT+1.1 (11%)
CH (12%)
SI (10%)
CU (33%)
FB-2.0 (43%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | Danville Braves | 10 | 9 | 34 | 143 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 90% | 3.4 | 17.6% | 4.4% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 2.17 | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | Danville Braves | 10 | 9 | 34 | 143 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 90% | 3.4 | 25.9% | 3.5% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 1.36 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | A | Rome Braves | 25 | 24 | 143 | 585 | 125 | 32 | 3 | 96% | 5.7 | 15.8% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 0.7% | 3.02 | 2.98 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | A | Rome Braves | 25 | 24 | 143 | 585 | 125 | 32 | 3 | 96% | 5.7 | 21.4% | 5.5% | 15.9% | 0.5% | 3.02 | 2.30 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 26 | 26 | 154 | 627 | 125 | 34 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.1% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 2.3% | 2.75 | 3.73 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 26 | 26 | 154 | 627 | 125 | 34 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.9% | 5.4% | 14.5% | 1.6% | 2.75 | 2.98 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 11 | 56 | 228 | 55 | 13 | 1 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.2% | 6.1% | 16.1% | 0.5% | 2.56 | 2.25 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 11 | 56 | 228 | 55 | 13 | 1 | 100% | 5.1 | 24.1% | 5.7% | 18.4% | 0.4% | 2.56 | 2.07 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 184 | 734 | 152 | 41 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.3% | 5.7% | 14.6% | 2.0% | 2.74 | 3.21 | +4.7 |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 184 | 734 | 152 | 41 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 5.6% | 15.1% | 2.0% | 2.74 | 3.18 | +4.8 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 3 | 3 | 14 | 57 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 4.6 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 3.95 | 3.47 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 3 | 3 | 14 | 57 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 4.6 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 3.95 | 3.47 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 25 | 103 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 4.2 | 16.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 5.40 | 4.84 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 25 | 103 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 4.2 | 24.3% | 6.8% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 5.40 | 3.50 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 119 | 500 | 121 | 40 | 15 | 96% | 5.0 | 22.0% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.03 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 119 | 500 | 121 | 40 | 15 | 96% | 5.0 | 24.2% | 8.0% | 16.2% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 3.71 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 9 | 88 | 379 | 96 | 45 | 14 | 29% | 2.8 | 24.2% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.62 | 4.61 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 9 | 88 | 379 | 96 | 45 | 14 | 29% | 2.8 | 25.3% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 3.7% | 4.62 | 4.53 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 20 | 104 | 438 | 116 | 34 | 16 | 77% | 4.0 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 17.4% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 3.65 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 20 | 104 | 438 | 116 | 34 | 16 | 77% | 4.0 | 26.5% | 7.8% | 18.7% | 3.7% | 4.41 | 3.85 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 15 | 15 | 82 | 333 | 79 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.7% | 5.1% | 18.6% | 1.8% | 3.07 | 2.73 | +2.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 55 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 7.1% | 16.7% | 2.6% | 3.47 | 3.44 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 55 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 7.1% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 3.50 | 3.47 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 137 | 564 | 134 | 33 | 12 | — | — | 23.8% | 5.9% | 17.8% | 2.1% | 3.23 | 3.01 | +3.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 137 | 577 | 134 | 33 | 12 | — | — | 23.2% | 5.8% | 17.4% | 2.1% | 3.24 | 3.04 | +3.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 76 | 323 | 82 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.3% | 6.6% | 18.7% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 3.72 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 75 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 6.9% | 17.7% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 3.93 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 67 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 7.2% | 16.6% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 60 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 15.4% | 3.5% | 4.26 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 53 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.2% | 8.1% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 4.52 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 52 | 219 | 46 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 4.1% | 4.81 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 81 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.3% | 6.6% | 18.7% | 2.9% | 3.80 | 3.75 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 75 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 6.9% | 17.7% | 3.1% | 3.90 | 3.97 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 67 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 7.2% | 16.6% | 3.3% | 4.08 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 60 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 15.4% | 3.6% | 4.30 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 53 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.2% | 8.1% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 4.57 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 47 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 4.2% | 4.86 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 180 | 158 | 938 | 3936 | 896 | 292 | 117 | 88% | 5.2 | 22.8% | 7.4% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 3.74 | +18.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 34 | 200 | 839 | 191 | 62 | 25 | 88% | 5.2 | 22.8% | 7.4% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 208 | 177 | 1003 | 4127 | 834 | 292 | 87 | 85% | 4.8 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 2.1% | 3.41 | 3.45 | +22.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 35 | 200 | 823 | 166 | 58 | 17 | 85% | 4.8 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 2.1% | 3.41 | 3.45 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Soroka (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 24.0% | 9.0% | 3.2% | — | 3.93 | 24.6% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.44 | — | — | — |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 68 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 68 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 68 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 67 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 67 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 66 |
| Nathan Eovaldi R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.43 | 22.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | .283 | 3.38 | 25.1% | 19.2% | 298 | -0.05 | 2.49 | 1,354 | 66 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.56 | 18.0% | 6.6% | 2.1% | .251 | 4.23 | 16.7% | 7.4% | 158 | +0.67 | 2.82 | 536 | 65 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 65 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 64 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 64 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 64 |
| Joe Ross R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.95 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .266 | 4.05 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 86 | +0.10 | 3.19 | 806 | 64 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2029 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 64 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 63 |
| Barry Enright R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.26 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% | .306 | 3.78 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 226 | +0.52 | 3.11 | 315 | 63 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 63 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .292 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 118 | +0.05 | 3.22 | 254 | 63 |
| Brett Sears R 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 167 | 63 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 66 | 23.6% | 7.6% | 1.28 | 4.20 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Jake McGee ('22) | 8 | 44 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 1.34 | 4.27 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Sergio Romo ('21) | 7 | 50 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 1.20 | 3.70 |