Rafael Mejias

P DSL Nationals

Age 22 LHP ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	21	ROKWSH	11	11	4.91	4.10	25.5%	23.6%	—	K 17.3% · BB 29.5% · FIP 5.38
2027PROJ	22	MLBWSH	6	6	5.75	5.75	22.3%	20.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBWSH	10	10	5.39	5.25	23.1%	16.7%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDillon Larsen (age 24) · Jackson Lancaster (age 24) · Brendan Nail (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126134vR 142

ERA5.75

FIP5.75

K%22.3%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%2.3%

Proj IP6

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	0	11	55	14	13	0	0%	1.0	17.3%	29.5%	-12.2%	0.0%	4.91	5.38	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	0	11	55	14	13	0	0%	1.0	17.3%	29.5%	-12.2%	0.0%	4.91	5.38	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	0	11	55	14	13	0	0%	1.0	25.5%	23.6%	1.8%	0.0%	4.91	4.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	WSH	6	0	6	25	6	5	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	20.0%	2.3%	3.0%	5.75	5.75	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	WSH	19	0	20	84	20	14	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	16.7%	6.4%	2.9%	5.39	5.25	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	WSH	10	0	10	42	10	7	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	16.7%	6.4%	2.9%	5.39	5.25	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	7	1	0%	1.1	23.1%	16.7%	6.4%	2.9%	5.39	4.86	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	142	20	0%	1.1	23.1%	16.7%	6.4%	2.9%	5.39	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		11	0	11	55	10	16	0	0%	1.0	17.3%	29.5%	-12.2%	0.0%	4.91	5.38	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		200	0	200	1000	173	295	0	0%	1.0	17.3%	29.5%	-12.2%	0.0%	4.91	5.38	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafael Mejias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.75	22.3%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.25	23.1%	6.4%	20	-0.50	—	—	—
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	87
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	86
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	84
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	84
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	83
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	83
Renyel Pinto L 2006 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	26.7%	20.0%	2.2%	.246	4.42	21.2%	7.6%	185	-0.18	3.58	231	81
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	81
Angel Hernandez L 2022 · 5.53 FIP	22	SU	5.53	23.4%	21.0%	3.2%	.262	4.36	21.2%	1.6%	123	-1.17	3.33	182	80
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	80
Felix Polanco L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	22	SU	5.19	18.7%	19.9%	2.1%	.290	3.68	18.8%	12.8%	27	-1.51	3.68	105	79
Brendan Cellucci L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	26.3%	18.6%	2.4%	.398	4.63	23.4%	6.9%	172	+0.06	3.98	288	78
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	77
Jordan Norberto L 2010 · 6.32 FIP	23	SU	6.32	16.0%	22.3%	3.2%	.236	3.89	21.7%	12.3%	52	-2.43	3.89	117	77
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	76
B.J. Ryan L 2000 · 5.27 FIP	24	SU	5.27	21.2%	15.5%	3.6%	.252	3.59	24.5%	12.9%	161	-1.68	1.77	532	76
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	76
Destin Dotson L 2022 · 5.84 FIP	22	SU	5.84	23.0%	19.9%	4.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	113	76
Reymin Guduan L 2015 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	18.8%	2.1%	.319	3.78	23.0%	10.3%	160	-1.07	3.60	268	75
Francis Beriguete L 2021 · 6.05 FIP	21	SU	6.05	20.8%	27.7%	2.2%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	101	75