Emmanuel Hernandez

P DSL Tampa Bay

Age 18 RHP ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	17	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	12	11	46	3.52	4.45	17.8%	13.5%	—	K 12.1% · BB 16.8% · FIP 5.69
2027PROJ	18	MLB—	6	6	27	5.53	5.53	18.3%	15.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	19	MLB—	5	5	21	5.24	5.14	19.6%	13.5%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJean Munoz (age 18) · Jeferson Figueroa (age 20) · Rafael Garcia (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.53

FIP5.53

K%18.3%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%2.9%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	46	208	37	28	4	92%	3.8	12.1%	16.8%	-4.7%	2.7%	3.52	5.69	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	46	208	37	28	4	92%	3.8	12.1%	16.8%	-4.7%	2.7%	3.52	5.69	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	46	208	37	28	4	92%	3.8	17.8%	13.5%	4.3%	1.9%	3.52	4.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	18	MLB	—	6	6	27	114	21	18	3	100%	4.5	18.3%	15.4%	2.9%	3.0%	5.53	5.53	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	—	10	10	44	184	36	25	5	100%	4.3	19.6%	13.5%	6.1%	2.9%	5.24	5.14	-0.1
2028	19	MLB CTX	—	5	5	21	89	17	12	3	100%	4.2	19.6%	13.5%	6.1%	2.9%	5.24	5.14	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		5	5	21	90	18	12	3	100%	4.3	19.6%	13.5%	6.1%	2.9%	5.24	4.76	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	46	200	844	168	112	28	100%	4.3	19.6%	13.5%	6.1%	2.9%	5.24	4.76	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		12	11	46	208	25	35	6	92%	3.8	12.1%	16.8%	-4.7%	2.7%	3.52	5.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	48	200	904	109	152	24	92%	3.8	12.1%	16.8%	-4.7%	2.7%	3.52	5.69	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emmanuel Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.53	18.3%	15.4%	3.0%	—	5.14	19.6%	6.1%	44	-0.39	—	—	—
Jean Munoz R 2021 · 4.96 FIP	18	SP	4.96	16.1%	16.1%	2.2%	.292	3.91	17.3%	2.4%	82	-1.05	3.23	215	89
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	85
Rafael Garcia R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	18	SP	4.65	14.9%	14.0%	1.9%	.288	7.13	16.0%	-0.4%	50	+2.48	4.65	102	85
Wellington Aracena R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	18	SP	5.11	17.2%	15.8%	2.7%	.273	4.20	19.8%	3.0%	236	-0.91	3.20	304	85
Maximo Gonzalez R 2024 · 5.75 FIP	17	SP	5.75	15.4%	16.1%	3.5%	.233	6.06	12.7%	1.8%	73	+0.31	3.51	120	84
Manuel Mercedes R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	18	SP	4.69	16.7%	12.4%	2.6%	.350	4.85	12.5%	-1.0%	303	+0.16	3.79	491	84
Adam Bates R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP-	5.12	16.2%	14.1%	2.9%	.358	6.39	13.0%	-7.2%	146	+1.27	5.12	183	84
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	83
Jonas De La Cruz R 2017 · 4.90 FIP	19	SP	4.90	15.2%	15.3%	2.1%	.326	5.27	18.5%	4.3%	47	+0.37	4.73	130	83
Luis Ghisays R 2024 · 5.74 FIP	18	SP	5.74	13.8%	15.0%	3.5%	.291	5.08	16.2%	5.4%	75	-0.66	4.58	110	83
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	83
Marlon De La Cruz R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	18	SP	5.31	17.1%	20.9%	1.8%	.306	5.34	13.8%	-6.9%	101	+0.03	4.35	140	82
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	82
Ben Hernandez R 2021 · 4.36 FIP	20	SP	4.36	16.5%	14.4%	1.5%	.337	4.59	12.4%	-0.3%	186	+0.23	4.00	301	82
Jeffrey Rosa R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	19.8%	15.3%	1.8%	.257	4.92	13.1%	-4.6%	67	+0.58	4.17	123	82
Juan De La Cruz R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	18	SP	5.20	14.6%	17.7%	2.0%	.331	5.01	19.1%	-0.6%	136	-0.19	3.37	220	81
Xavier Javier R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP	4.47	14.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.237	5.97	9.5%	-10.6%	100	+1.50	4.47	188	81
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	81
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	81
Anderson Munoz R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SP-	5.90	14.4%	18.2%	3.1%	.306	4.35	25.7%	13.3%	73	-1.55	4.15	109	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	35	19.1%	14.2%	1.14	5.35
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*