Mike McKenna — OGILVIE

Mike McKenna P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 195 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%22.7%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP33

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	34	0	47	201	55	16	8	0%	1.4	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	5.1%	4.05	5.34	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	34	0	47	201	55	16	8	0%	1.4	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	5.1%	4.05	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	MIN	29	0	39	159	44	12	4	0%	1.3	27.7%	7.5%	20.1%	2.5%	2.79	3.10	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	MIN	5	0	8	42	11	4	4	0%	1.6	26.2%	9.5%	16.7%	9.5%	10.12	7.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIN	44	0	46	193	44	18	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.2%	13.8%	3.1%	4.39	4.38	+0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	43	0	45	190	44	18	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.1%	4.40	4.41	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	42	0	44	184	42	17	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.2%	4.45	4.49	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIN	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	23.0%	9.2%	13.8%	3.1%	4.39	4.38	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	27	0	28	118	27	11	4	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.1%	4.40	4.41	+0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	31	0	33	139	32	13	4	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.2%	4.45	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		77	0	81	340	78	32	11	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.3%	13.6%	3.1%	4.42	4.06	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	80	27	0%	1.1	23.0%	9.3%	13.6%	3.1%	4.42	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		34	0	47	201	41	19	10	0%	1.4	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	5.1%	4.05	5.34	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	0	200	861	176	80	44	0%	1.4	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	5.1%	4.05	5.34	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mike McKenna (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	22.7%	9.3%	3.1%	—	4.43	23.0%	13.7%	134	+0.02	—	—	—
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	90
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	90
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	90
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	90
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	88
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	88
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	87
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	87
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	87
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.36	22.2%	13.5%	185	+0.63	3.73	223	87
Matt Carasiti R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.2%	7.6%	2.7%	.313	3.36	23.4%	12.8%	93	-0.32	2.80	312	87
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	87
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	86
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	86
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.59	20.8%	8.4%	121	+0.80	3.77	244	85
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	85
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	85
Gavin Hollowell R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	21.2%	10.1%	3.6%	.273	3.91	25.3%	12.6%	98	-0.64	2.41	226	85
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	42	22.9%	9.3%	1.20	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68