Ethan Cole

P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.1 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ACOL	27	14	104	5.43	3.47	21.0%	8.3%	—	K 15.5% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.43
2027PROJ	23	MLBCOL	10	10	73	4.86	4.86	17.2%	9.7%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCOL	6	6	41	4.94	4.87	18.8%	9.1%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCOL	9	9	65	4.81	4.74	19.8%	8.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsNate Peterson (age 23) · Joe Kemlage (age 23) · Dallas Braden (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%17.2%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	27	14	104	458	96	38	9	52%	3.9	15.5%	9.8%	5.7%	2.6%	5.43	4.43	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	27	14	104	458	96	38	9	52%	3.9	15.5%	9.8%	5.7%	2.6%	5.43	4.43	—
2026	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	27	14	104	458	96	38	9	52%	3.9	21.0%	8.3%	12.7%	2.0%	5.43	3.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	COL	10	10	73	308	53	30	9	100%	7.3	17.2%	9.7%	7.5%	2.9%	4.86	4.86	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	96	406	76	37	12	100%	7.4	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	2.9%	4.70	4.63	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	97	411	81	36	12	100%	7.5	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	2.9%	4.57	4.50	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	97	411	83	36	12	100%	7.5	20.3%	8.7%	11.6%	2.9%	4.49	4.45	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	96	405	82	35	12	100%	7.4	20.3%	8.8%	11.6%	2.9%	4.49	4.48	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	93	393	79	35	12	100%	7.8	20.2%	8.9%	11.3%	3.0%	4.54	4.57	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	89	375	75	34	12	100%	7.4	20.0%	9.1%	10.8%	3.2%	4.64	4.70	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	84	353	69	33	12	100%	7.6	19.6%	9.4%	10.2%	3.4%	4.78	4.88	+0.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	78	329	70	30	12	100%	7.8	21.2%	9.0%	12.2%	3.6%	4.80	4.81	+0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	72	304	63	29	12	100%	7.2	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	3.9%	4.94	5.03	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	41	173	33	16	6	100%	6.8	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	3.3%	4.94	4.87	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	65	274	54	24	9	100%	7.2	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	3.3%	4.81	4.74	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	77	325	66	28	11	100%	7.7	20.3%	8.7%	11.6%	3.3%	4.73	4.69	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	82	346	70	30	12	100%	7.5	20.3%	8.8%	11.6%	3.4%	4.74	4.73	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	83	350	71	31	12	100%	7.5	20.2%	8.9%	11.3%	3.5%	4.79	4.82	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	81	342	68	31	13	100%	7.4	20.0%	9.1%	10.8%	3.7%	4.91	4.97	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	77	325	64	31	13	100%	7.7	19.6%	9.4%	10.2%	3.9%	5.06	5.16	+0.0
2035	31	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	72	304	65	27	13	100%	7.2	21.2%	9.0%	12.2%	4.2%	5.10	5.11	+0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	68	287	60	27	13	100%	7.6	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	4.5%	5.26	5.35	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	87	645	2723	549	245	100	100%	7.4	20.2%	9.0%	11.2%	3.7%	4.92	4.56	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		27	27	200	844	170	76	31	100%	7.5	20.2%	9.0%	11.2%	3.7%	4.92	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		27	14	104	458	71	45	12	52%	3.9	15.5%	9.8%	5.7%	2.6%	5.43	4.43	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	27	200	878	136	86	22	52%	3.9	15.5%	9.8%	5.7%	2.6%	5.43	4.43	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Cole (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	17.2%	9.7%	2.9%	—	4.53	19.6%	10.8%	291	-0.33	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	90
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	84
Dallas Braden L 2007 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP-	4.14	16.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.337	3.89	14.1%	7.8%	401	-0.25	3.64	491	84
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	84
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	84
Riley Cooper L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SW	4.22	16.6%	12.0%	1.8%	.287	4.46	18.9%	7.7%	51	+0.24	4.14	139	83
Casey Fossum L 2001 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	13.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.270	4.46	19.3%	10.9%	328	+0.14	3.50	782	82
Billy Traber L 2003 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.5%	7.2%	3.0%	.321	4.17	12.4%	6.5%	43	+0.00	3.75	211	82
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.53	15.8%	4.8%	77	+0.53	4.38	243	82
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	81
JP Sears L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	23	SW	3.85	16.8%	8.9%	1.9%	.268	3.34	24.7%	17.8%	222	-0.51	2.18	962	81
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	81
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	81
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	81
Zach Thornton L 2024 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	13.8%	7.2%	1.9%	.335	3.96	20.5%	14.1%	220	+0.06	2.95	288	81
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	80
Odalis Perez L 2001 · 3.77 FIP	24	SP-	3.77	17.0%	9.3%	1.7%	.336	3.91	17.5%	12.8%	604	+0.14	3.40	1,324	80
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	80
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	80
Thomas Ireland L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP-	4.05	17.6%	9.5%	2.2%	.318	3.66	16.9%	7.6%	138	-0.39	2.95	250	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	88	19.8%	9.1%	1.21	4.67
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Jim Coates ('56-'67, 1 WAR*)	3.4	85	19.1%*	9.1%*	1.05*	4.71*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Paul LaPalme ('51-'57, 1 WAR*)	3.1	88	17.9%*	9.3%*	1.22*	4.49*
Dustin McGowan ('17)	3.3	65	19.2%	9.9%	1.08	4.50
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71