Randy Maria

P DSL LAD Bautista

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECTFG #687

ETA2028FG ETA2032MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ROKDSL LAD Mega	10	1	19	5.79	4.12	17.8%	18.9%	—	K 12.1% · BB 23.6% · FIP 5.07
2026	22	ROKDSL LAD Bauti…	16	0	37	4.17	3.95	18.2%	13.2%	—	K 12.4% · BB 16.5% · FIP 5.11
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAD	17	0	18	5.60	5.60	18.4%	16.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBLAD	13	0	14	5.30	5.18	19.9%	14.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJunior Rincon (age 23) · Hayden Snelsire (age 23) · Brett Lockwood (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 123

ERA5.60

FIP5.60

K%18.4%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%2.0%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	10	1	19	90	16	17	0	10%	1.9	12.1%	23.6%	-11.5%	0.0%	5.79	5.07	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	10	1	19	90	16	17	0	10%	1.9	12.1%	23.6%	-11.5%	0.0%	5.79	5.07	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	10	1	19	90	16	17	0	10%	1.9	17.8%	18.9%	-1.1%	0.0%	5.79	4.12	—
2026	22	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	16	0	37	159	29	21	2	0%	2.3	12.4%	16.5%	-4.1%	1.8%	4.17	5.11	—
2026	22	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	16	0	37	159	29	21	2	0%	2.3	12.4%	16.5%	-4.1%	1.8%	4.17	5.11	—
2026	22	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	16	0	37	159	29	21	2	0%	2.3	18.2%	13.2%	5.0%	1.3%	4.17	3.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAD	17	0	18	76	14	12	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	16.4%	2.0%	2.9%	5.60	5.60	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	32	0	34	143	28	20	4	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.2%	5.7%	2.9%	5.30	5.18	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	13	0	14	59	12	8	2	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.2%	5.7%	2.9%	5.30	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	14	61	12	9	2	0%	1.0	19.9%	14.2%	5.7%	2.9%	5.30	4.80	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	125	28	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.2%	5.7%	2.9%	5.30	4.80	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		26	1	55	249	31	48	3	4%	2.1	12.3%	19.1%	-6.8%	1.1%	4.72	5.10	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	4	200	900	111	172	10	4%	2.1	12.3%	19.1%	-6.8%	1.1%	4.72	5.10	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Randy Maria (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.60	18.4%	16.4%	2.9%	—	5.18	19.9%	5.7%	34	-0.42	—	—	—
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	86
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	84
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	84
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	84
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	84
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	83
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	83
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	82
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	82
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	82
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	82
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	82
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	81
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	19.4%	15.0%	1.12	5.41
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*