Jack Barker

OF FCL Phillies

Age 22 L/L 6'0" / 200 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	APHI	37	.138/.324/.138	0	1	17	—	.097/.243/.097
2026	21	A/ROKPHI	287	.219/.348/.365	5	18	24	—	.137/.226/.221
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBPHI	397	.179/.258/.270	5	7	51	-0.6
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBPHI	73	.185/.264/.286	1	1	55	-0.3

Next 2 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed99

Max EV58

Chase%52

BB%18

Whiff%6

Z-Con%5

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsLoidel Chapelli (age 22) · Cole Roederer (age 22) · Daury Arias (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 172 proj PA

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.178 / .256 / .267

PA172

HR2

K%33

BB%9

ISO90

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE61

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	20	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	37	29	4	0	0	0	7	11	1	1	1	138	324	138	462		222	30	19	250	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	46	41	3	1	1	0	4	20	0	3	0	73	156	146	302	73	143	43	9	143	-48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	241	192	48	12	2	5	40	81	2	15	2	250	385	411	796	161	384	34	17	351	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	37	31	3	0	0	0	5	14	1	1	1	97	243	97	340		204	38	14	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	46	42	3	1	1	0	3	27	0	3	0	71	133	143	276	71	129	59	7	97	-48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	241	208	31	7	1	3	24	117	2	15	2	149	244	236	479	87	278	49	10	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	37	31	3	0	0	0	5	14	1	1	1	97	243	97	340		176	38	14	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	37	29	4	0	0	0	7	11	1	1	1	138	324	138	462		222	30	19	250	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	287	250	34	8	2	3	27	144	2	18	2	136	226	220	446	84	284	50	9	204	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	287	233	51	13	3	5	44	101	2	18	2	219	348	365	712	146	346	35	15	318	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	37	31	3	0	0	0	5	14	1	1	1	97	243	97	340		204	38	14	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	287	256	34	8	2	3	27	144	2	18	2	133	226	215	441	82	254	50	9	204	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	37	31	3	0	0	0	5	14	1	1	1	97	243	97	340		204	38	14	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	287	256	34	8	2	3	27	144	2	18	2	133	226	215	441	82	254	50	9	204	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	397	357	64	12	3	5	34	132	3	7	2	179	258	270	528	90	265	33	9	243	51	-23	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	PHI	34%	212	190	34	6	1	3	18	69	2	4	1	184	263	282	545	98	267	33	8	250	55	-11	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.8
2028	23	MLB CTX	PHI	34%	73	66	11	2	0	1	6	24	1	1	0	185	264	286	550	100	268	33	8	252	55	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	73	66	11	2	0	1	6	24	1	1	0	167	247	242	489	76	244	33	8	252	40	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	98	18	0	9	53	214	9	9	0	167	246	243	489	77	244	33	8	252	40	-34	+2	+0	-4	+14	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		—	708	625	98	19	4	8	65	284	6	26	5	157	243	238	481	82	264	40	9	227	40	-21	+1	+0	-2	+8	-1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	90	17	4	7	60	261	6	24	5	157	244	237	481	80	265	40	9	227	40	-36	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Phillies · 241 PAwOBA .350 → .225 (−125)K% 33.6% → 48.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.61%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	48.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.18%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.985	9.88%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.59%
Singles /BIP	26.13%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.950	×0.985	20.05%
Doubles /BIP	10.81%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×0.985	7.28%
Triples /BIP	1.80%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×0.985	1.21%
Home runs /BIP	4.50%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.985	3.46%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .350 → .225; ISO .161 → .104; BABIP .384 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 46 PAwOBA .140 → .097 (−43)K% 43.5% → 59.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	43.48%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	59.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	6.09%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.015	4.45%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.015	4.01%
Triples /BIP	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×1.015	4.40%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .140 → .097; ISO .073 → .050; BABIP .143 → .129. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 37 PAwOBA .245 → .194 (−51)K% 29.7% → 38.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.73%	÷1.065	×1.360	—	—	37.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.92%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×1.030	13.79%
HBP% /PA	2.70%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	2.17%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.030	×0.920	—	×1.030	20.44%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.975	×0.830	—	×1.030	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.923	×0.910	—	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.083	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .245 → .194; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .222 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
#5Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
#6Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	245	3	5	182	257	274	-1	+0	-0.8	-0.4
/162	664	9	12	-4.0	+0.0	-2.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jack Barker (OGILVIE)	22	20→25	37→42	54→59	61	178/256/267	89	265	2	3	33%	9%	51	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Loidel Chapelli 2024 · A	22	39→36	43→45	56→55	46	196/271/312	116	271	10	18	30%	8%	65	-1.2	196/259/284	88	300	7	17	34%	7%	54	-2.0	176/233/238	63	279	4	20	36%	6%	31	-2.0
✕Cole Roederer 2022 · A	22	42→33	40→45	50	44	200/275/295	95	300	7	13	34%	8%	63	-1.3	203/269/320	117	297	12	11	34%	7%	67	-1.1	183/257/295	112	268	12	11	34%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Daury Arias 2024 · A	22	38	40	50→45	48	188/270/276	88	252	8	9	27%	9%	58	-1.7	184/252/266	82	279	6	9	34%	7%	48	-2.5	118/186/167	49	192	4	10	38%	6%	-1	-2.0
✕Kai Murphy 2023 · A	22	45→41	39→40	53→50	44	214/272/300	87	294	6	12	28%	7%	63	-1.4	209/271/293	84	302	6	10	31%	7%	61	-1.5	197/269/263	66	263	5	11	25%	8%	51	-1.3
✕Jaden Rudd 2024 · A	21	39→36	37→30	52→50	48	179/290/250	70	276	4	14	32%	10%	61	-1.5	193/286/269	76	307	5	13	35%	9%	63	-1.4	155/260/202	47	253	3	16	35%	10%	36	-0.9
✕D.J. Wilson 2019 · A	22	38	41→50	50	39	185/243/283	99	282	8	13	36%	7%	48	-2.5	183/250/280	97	308	9	14	40%	8%	51	-2.3	104/190/192	88	178	12	21	47%	9%	9	-1.5
✕Garrett Spain 2023 · A	22	39→35	40→45	49→50	41	190/258/278	89	293	8	10	36%	8%	53	-2.1	174/237/283	109	258	11	10	35%	7%	47	-2.6	162/228/283	121	225	15	14	34%	7%	41	-2.3
✕Tyler Frost 2018 · A	22	41→33	42→50	54→50	39	204/256/317	114	282	9	6	30%	6%	61	-1.5	185/242/305	120	297	13	7	40%	6%	53	-2.1	168/227/287	119	273	13	7	42%	6%	41	-2.3
✕Jacob Wetzel 2023 · A	23	39→34	43→45	50	47	194/280/301	107	268	12	10	30%	9%	68	-1.0	192/268/302	110	281	9	13	32%	9%	63	-1.4	180/256/297	117	269	7	16	33%	9%	55	-1.0
✕Mitchell Hansen 2018 · A	22	40→36	44→45	51→50	39	200/248/314	114	280	11	10	32%	6%	57	-1.8	194/243/294	100	292	8	9	34%	6%	51	-2.3	160/203/246	86	252	4	8	37%	4%	22	-1.9
✕Roberto Reyes 2010 · A	21	35	37→40	55	44	168/249/240	72	256	4	15	33%	8%	42	-2.9	189/249/265	76	287	4	8	33%	6%	46	-2.6	179/233/246	67	261	5	2	32%	5%	34	-1.2
✕Ryan Aguilar 2017 · A	22	43→40	38→45	50	47	202/272/284	81	282	5	10	28%	9%	59	-1.6	181/248/257	76	283	6	7	35%	8%	45	-2.7	181/274/286	106	291	12	12	39%	10%	59	-1.1
✕Daniel Perez 2024 · A	22	41	39→40	50→45	51	195/282/284	89	255	6	7	25%	10%	64	-1.3	182/245/259	77	336	4	7	43%	7%	43	-2.8	119/174/178	60	293	2	6	57%	6%	-4	-1.7
✕Yohairo Cuevas 2024 · A	20	39→38	40	53→50	46	189/269/285	96	280	8	13	33%	9%	59	-1.6	194/280/279	85	302	5	15	34%	10%	62	-1.4	185/278/271	86	290	5	16	34%	10%	58	-1.1
✕Brenden Webb 2011 · A	21	38→40	41→45	53→50	42	184/260/288	104	282	8	7	35%	8%	56	-1.9	184/272/282	98	313	8	10	39%	10%	60	-1.6	168/249/289	121	278	12	10	41%	9%	51	-1.6
✕Cam Gibson 2017 · A	23	37→41	41→45	53→55	40	183/242/278	94	269	8	17	34%	7%	47	-2.6	198/260/312	114	273	10	17	29%	7%	61	-1.5	195/261/308	113	264	9	19	28%	7%	59	-1.3
✕Brandon Dulin 2015 · A	22	36→29	41→45	51→40	35	182/231/281	100	256	9	7	32%	4%	43	-2.8	192/240/307	115	270	13	4	33%	5%	53	-2.1	182/233/302	120	252	15	1	33%	5%	47	-1.5
✕Tavian Josenberger 2024 · A	22	47→37	38→45	52→65	49	218/295/297	79	313	5	15	30%	10%	71	-0.8	194/274/302	108	254	10	36	26%	10%	65	-1.2	179/267/286	107	233	11	44	27%	10%	57	-1.1
✕Ismael Alcantara 2021 · A	22	43→30	38→45	57→50	41	200/268/280	80	315	5	16	36%	8%	57	-1.8	210/268/332	122	313	12	13	35%	6%	69	-0.9	200/258/307	108	293	11	16	34%	6%	56	-1.1
✕Andry Arias 2021 · A	21	38	39→40	51→40	42	186/255/269	83	272	6	8	32%	8%	50	-2.3	190/255/289	99	292	8	6	35%	7%	55	-2.0	163/234/264	101	246	9	3	35%	7%	39	-1.0

Jack Barker

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps