Garrett Spain — OGILVIE

Garrett SpainRF Wichita Wind Surge

Age 25 L/R 5'9" / 178 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION310 act + 206 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .244 / .329

PA206

HR6

SB6

K%36

BB%6

BABIP255

ISO148

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	62	59	10	0	0	0	2	21	0	0	2	169	197	169	366		256	34	3	160	-19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	62	59	10	0	0	0	2	17	0	0	2	169	197	169	366		233	27	3	168	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	337	307	51	6	3	5	24	128	5	10	3	166	238	254	492	88	263	38	7	219	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	337	291	63	13	3	6	40	92	5	10	3	216	321	344	665	127	294	27	12	305	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	366	338	56	18	3	6	22	132	5	6	5	166	227	290	517	124	249	36	6	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	366	325	78	24	3	12	35	100	5	6	5	240	323	443	766	203	308	27	10	339	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	369	342	42	6	1	7	23	129	2	12	2	123	183	208	390	85	170	35	6	179	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	369	329	55	9	1	11	34	99	2	12	2	167	248	301	549	134	201	27	9	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	2 teams	—	529	481	70	12	3	9	29	213	10	9	7	146	210	239	449	94	228	40	5	202	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	2 teams	—	529	467	95	19	4	16	43	146	10	9	7	203	285	364	649	161	252	28	8	288	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AA	MIN	—	310	281	55	14	3	12	22	110	5	12	4	196	266	395	661	199	267	35	7	280	72	-10	+1	+0	-3	+9	-0.3
YTD	25	AA	MIN	—	310	270	64	17	3	14	32	85	5	12	4	237	328	478	806	241	289	27	10	351	127	+10	+1	+0	-3	+9	1.6
ROS	25	AA	MIN	2%	206	188	34	8	1	6	13	74	3	6	2	180	244	329	573	148	255	36	6	257	55	-11	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.7
ROS	25	MLB	MIN	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						255	25	0	246	47	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	25	AA	MIN	—	314	285	55	14	3	12	22	111	5	12	4	193	263	389	652	196	262	35	7	280	72	-10	+1	+0	-3	+9	-0.4
TOT	25	AA	MIN	—	516	469	89	22	4	18	35	184	8	18	6	189	257	368	626	179	262	36	7	271	65	-20	+1	+0	-6	+15	-1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	MIN	31%	526	478	88	19	3	15	36	182	7	12	5	184	251	331	582	146	255	35	7	261	58	-25	+0	+0	-6	+15	-1.5
2028	27	MLB	MIN	42%	540	490	93	20	3	16	38	182	7	12	5	190	258	341	599	151	258	34	7	266	62	-23	+0	+0	-6	+15	-1.4
2029	28	MLB	MIN	48%	545	494	94	20	3	16	39	181	7	12	4	190	259	340	599	150	259	33	7	268	63	-23	+1	-1	-6	+15	-1.3
2030	29	MLB	MIN	49%	544	492	94	20	3	16	40	181	7	11	4	191	262	341	603	150	259	33	7	267	63	-23	+1	-1	-6	+15	-1.4
2027	26	MLB	MIN	31%	163	149	28	6	1	5	11	56	2	4	1	188	253	342	595	154	255	34	7	252	51	-9	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.6
2028	27	MLB	MIN	42%	227	206	39	8	1	7	16	77	3	5	2	189	258	340	598	150	258	34	7	257	55	-12	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.8
2029	28	MLB	MIN	48%	261	237	45	10	1	8	19	87	3	6	2	190	259	342	600	152	259	33	7	259	56	-13	+0	-0	-3	+7	-0.8
2030	29	MLB	MIN	49%	269	244	46	10	1	8	20	89	3	5	2	189	258	336	594	148	259	33	7	258	56	-13	+0	-1	-3	+8	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	924	840	158	34	4	28	66	310	11	20	7	188	256	338	594	150	257	34	7	257	55	-47	+1	-1	-10	+26	-3.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	112	24	3	20	46	218	8	14	5	190	257	342	599	152	258	34	7	257	55	-33	+1	-1	-7	+18	-2.2
Career	—			—	4024	3669	632	129	23	96	266	1423	53	90	39	172	238	298	537	126	246	35	7	240	42	-265	+2	-2	-43	+114	-19.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	103	21	4	16	43	230	9	15	6	174	241	304	544	130	248	35	7	240	42	-43	+1	-0	-7	+18	-3.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	62	59	10	0	0	0	2	17	0	0	2	169	197	169	366		233	27	3	168	-13	-8	-1	—	—	+2	-0.7
2022	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	337	291	63	13	3	6	40	92	5	10	3	216	321	344	665	127	294	27	12	305	91	-3	+1	—	—	+10	0.7
2023	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	366	325	78	24	3	12	35	100	5	6	5	240	323	443	766	203	308	27	10	339	117	+7	-1	—	—	+10	1.7
2024	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	369	329	55	9	1	11	34	99	2	12	2	167	248	301	549	134	201	27	9	249	49	-21	+2	—	—	+10	-0.9
2025	24	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	43	37	6	2	0	0	4	15	1	3	0	162	262	216	478	54	261	35	9	226	31	-3	+1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	24	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	486	430	89	17	4	16	39	131	9	6	7	207	287	377	663	170	251	27	8	293	83	-10	-2	—	—	+14	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#2Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#3Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#4Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#5Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	926	27	20	189	255	339	-10	-2	-2.4	-1.2
	/162	664	19	15	189	255	339	-7.1	-1.4	-1.7	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Garrett Spain (OGILVIE)	25	35	50	45	35	189/257/368	179	262	18	18	36%	7%	65	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→37	44→50	47→55	38	184/248/300	115	271	12	13	35%	6%	49	-1.8	201/261/346	145	293	17	19	36%	6%	66	-0.6	197/258/338	141	284	18	24	36%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Justin Toerner 2022 · AAA	25	39	44→45	45→50	43	191/276/301	110	289	13	8	36%	9%	62	-0.9	187/281/300	113	283	12	11	35%	10%	64	-0.8	162/269/266	104	242	12	12	35%	10%	50	-0.8
✕Kyle Martin 2018 · AA	25	34→38	48→50	44→40	39	184/242/319	135	248	16	4	33%	6%	51	-1.7	180/241/293	113	257	12	5	33%	7%	43	-2.2	149/218/264	115	216	13	1	36%	7%	27	-2.0
✕Will Robertson 2023 · AA	25	38→42	47→55	39→45	38	193/259/328	135	287	15	4	36%	7%	61	-1.0	201/261/363	162	288	19	6	36%	7%	71	-0.3	197/260/362	165	276	20	5	35%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Roger Kieschnick 2012 · AA	25	40→46	47→55	47→45	36	208/245/344	136	281	15	9	32%	4%	58	-1.2	213/262/369	156	299	17	6	33%	6%	72	-0.2	204/258/362	158	283	17	4	33%	6%	66	-0.4
✕Samir Dueñez 2021 · AAA	25	38→48	43→45	47→50	39	194/237/298	104	254	11	5	28%	5%	43	-2.2	208/261/336	128	304	15	8	35%	6%	63	-0.8	165/221/290	125	239	19	3	39%	6%	30	-0.8
✕Michael Burgess 2014 · AA	25	37→41	46→50	43→45	42	193/248/320	128	249	14	2	29%	6%	53	-1.5	215/258/362	147	280	14	6	28%	5%	68	-0.5	246/280/436	190	301	18	6	24%	4%	97	+1.0
✕Collin DeLome 2011 · AAA	25	35→38	49→55	52→50	32	188/233/337	149	273	18	13	38%	4%	52	-1.6	201/251/329	128	308	13	14	37%	4%	57	-1.2	207/258/343	136	323	12	16	38%	4%	61	-0.5
✕Jackson Cluff 2022 · AA	25	40→29	40→45	49→60	37	191/259/277	86	288	7	12	34%	6%	48	-1.9	177/254/283	106	281	10	16	38%	8%	47	-1.9	181/273/314	133	265	15	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Quincy Latimore 2014 · AA	25	38→41	46→50	43→50	40	200/254/329	130	265	14	9	30%	6%	59	-1.1	210/261/343	133	280	15	10	30%	6%	65	-0.7	199/251/331	132	266	16	8	31%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Drew Vettleson 2016 · AA	25	40→49	42→45	49→50	36	199/239/305	105	288	10	10	34%	5%	45	-2.1	188/223/295	107	309	12	12	41%	4%	36	-2.7	161/189/262	101	269	13	11	44%	3%	11	-1.5
✕Seth Gray 2023 · AA	25	37→36	45	47→50	37	182/259/294	113	303	14	8	42%	7%	53	-1.5	208/285/315	107	351	11	13	40%	8%	69	-0.4	209/294/304	95	361	9	19	40%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	35→34	45→50	47→50	37	180/243/296	116	289	13	11	40%	7%	46	-2.0	189/248/293	104	291	9	10	36%	7%	46	-2.0	146/203/235	89	219	3	6	33%	7%	8	-1.2
✕Jameson Fisher 2019 · AA	25	38→36	41→45	41→45	42	188/262/288	99	281	9	6	34%	8%	52	-1.6	194/259/295	101	293	9	6	34%	7%	52	-1.6	194/254/298	105	283	10	4	33%	7%	48	-1.4
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2016 · AAA	25	43	46→50	46→45	38	217/260/347	129	301	14	9	32%	5%	65	-0.7	221/268/355	134	306	15	9	32%	6%	70	-0.3	222/269/361	139	311	17	7	33%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	37→39	44→50	45→50	38	185/252/306	121	279	11	10	36%	6%	53	-1.5	189/263/296	107	295	8	13	36%	7%	54	-1.4	160/248/262	103	254	7	16	37%	8%	40	-1.1
✕Stefan Welch 2014 · AA	25	41→40	44→45	45→40	43	204/270/319	114	276	12	5	30%	7%	63	-0.8	201/274/319	118	286	12	5	32%	7%	65	-0.7	173/256/289	116	251	12	1	34%	8%	50	-1.2
✕Yusniel Díaz 2022 · AAA	25	35→45	43→45	42→50	36	180/231/288	108	270	12	6	37%	6%	38	-2.6	225/291/354	129	297	15	11	28%	8%	80	+0.4	242/312/379	138	306	16	11	25%	9%	93	+0.7
✕Orlando Martinez 2023 · AAA	25	44→45	44→50	45→50	39	217/260/333	116	296	11	9	30%	5%	61	-1.0	226/279/345	119	286	11	8	24%	7%	72	-0.2	231/297/326	95	291	7	9	21%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Bubba Starling 2018 · AAA	25	38→46	44→45	46→50	35	195/234/313	118	270	12	10	32%	4%	45	-2.1	217/260/333	116	293	13	11	29%	5%	61	-1.0	221/258/345	124	289	15	11	29%	5%	61	-0.5