Garrett Spain — OGILVIE

Garrett SpainRF Wichita Wind Surge

Age 25 L/R 5'9" / 178 lbs AA BB +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .237 / .300

PA320

HR8

SB12

K%36

BB%6

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35→35

PWR

50→50

SPD

45→45

EYE

43↘35

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.8peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-11M		$-35M	-$23M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$23M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	62	60	10	0	0	0	1	21	0	0	2	.167	.180	.167	.347	.000	.250	34	2	.154	-24	-9	-1	+0	-1	+2	-0.9
2022	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	337	307	50	7	3	5	24	128	5	10	3	.163	.235	.254	.489	.091	.257	38	7	.217	24	-29	+1	+0	-4	+10	-2.3
2023	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	366	338	56	17	3	7	22	135	5	6	5	.166	.227	.296	.523	.130	.249	37	6	.228	33	-28	-1	+0	-4	+10	-2.3
2024	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	369	342	46	7	1	8	23	128	2	12	2	.135	.193	.231	.424	.096	.184	35	6	.186	1	-41	+2	+0	-4	+10	-3.4
2025	24	AA	2 teams	529	481	77	15	3	12	29	197	10	9	7	.160	.223	.279	.502	.119	.231	37	5	.221	27	-43	-1	+0	-6	+15	-3.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	59	53	11	2	1	3	6	22	0	5	0	.208	.288	.453	.741	.245	.286	37	10	.343	121	+1	+1	+0	-1	+2	0.3
ROS	25	MLB	MIN	261	239	43	8	2	7	17	94	3	7	2	.180	.243	.318	.561	.138	.258	36	7	.252	51	-14	+1	+0	-3	+7	-0.9
TOT	25	MLB	MIN	320	292	54	10	3	10	23	116	3	12	2	.185	.252	.342	.594	.158	.263	36	7	.269	64	-13	+2	+0	-3	+9	-0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 11%	MIN	365	332	63	12	2	10	26	117	4	9	2	.190	.257	.328	.585	.139	.256	32	7	.265	61	-16	+1	+0	-4	+10	-0.9
2028	27	MLB 26%	MIN	388	352	68	13	2	11	29	122	4	9	2	.193	.262	.335	.598	.142	.259	31	7	.270	65	-16	+1	+0	-4	+11	-0.8
2029	28	MLB 38%	MIN	401	364	71	14	2	11	30	125	4	9	2	.195	.264	.335	.599	.140	.260	31	7	.271	66	-16	+1	-1	-4	+11	-0.8
2030	29	MLB 47%	MIN	400	362	71	14	2	11	31	125	4	8	2	.196	.267	.337	.604	.141	.260	31	8	.270	65	-16	+1	-1	-4	+11	-0.9
2031	30	MLB 56%	MIN	398	361	69	13	2	11	30	125	4	7	1	.191	.261	.330	.590	.139	.258	31	8	.267	63	-17	+1	-2	-4	+11	-1.1
2032	31	MLB 73%	MIN	387	350	67	13	2	10	30	124	4	5	1	.191	.263	.326	.589	.134	.257	32	8	.264	60	-18	+1	-3	-4	+11	-1.3
2033	32	MLB 91%	MIN	370	335	62	12	2	9	28	120	4	3	0	.185	.256	.313	.570	.128	.255	32	8	.259	56	-18	+1	-4	-4	+10	-1.5
2034	33	MLB	MIN	341	309	57	11	2	8	26	113	3	2	0	.184	.254	.311	.565	.126	.253	33	8	.253	52	-18	+0	-4	-4	+10	-1.7
2035	34	MLB	MIN	298	271	49	9	2	7	22	101	3	1	0	.181	.250	.306	.556	.125	.251	34	7	.247	47	-18	+0	-5	-3	+8	-1.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5272	4803	859	165	30	127	368	1775	59	97	31	.179	.246	.305	.551	.126	.250	34	7	.247	47	-316	+7	-20	-56	+149	-24.1
/ 162G	—			650	592	106	20	4	16	45	219	7	12	4	.179	.245	.307	.552	.128	.249	34	7	.247	47	-39	+1	-2	-7	+18	-3.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	62	59	10	0	0	0	2	17	0	0	2	.169	.197	.169	.366	.000	.233	27	3	.168	-13	-8	-1	—	—	+2	-0.7
2022	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	337	291	63	13	3	6	40	92	5	10	3	.216	.321	.344	.665	.127	.294	27	12	.305	91	-3	+1	—	—	+10	0.7
2023	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	366	325	78	24	3	12	35	100	5	6	5	.240	.323	.443	.766	.203	.308	27	10	.339	117	+7	-1	—	—	+10	1.7
2024	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	369	329	55	9	1	11	34	99	2	12	2	.167	.248	.301	.549	.134	.201	27	9	.249	49	-21	+2	—	—	+10	-0.9
2025	24	AAA	Nashville Sounds	43	37	6	2	0	0	4	15	1	3	0	.162	.262	.216	.478	.054	.261	35	9	.226	31	-3	+1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	24	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	486	430	89	17	4	16	39	131	9	6	7	.207	.287	.377	.663	.170	.251	27	8	.293	83	-10	-2	—	—	+14	0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Garrett Spain (OGILVIE)	25	35	50	45	35	.176/.237/.300	.124	.255	8	6	36%	6%	45	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→38	44→50	47→55	38	.183/.247/.298	.115	.269	11	13	35%	6%	48	-1.9	.201/.262/.346	.145	.292	17	19	36%	6%	66	-0.6	.199/.260/.339	.140	.286	17	24	35%	6%	61	-0.7
✕Orlando Martinez 2023 · AAA	25	43→44	45→50	44→45	38	.214/.258/.334	.120	.292	12	9	31%	5%	61	-1.0	.222/.274/.341	.119	.283	11	8	25%	6%	69	-0.4	.224/.282/.338	.114	.277	10	7	22%	7%	71	-0.2
✕Justin Toerner 2022 · AAA	25	39	44→45	45→50	44	.194/.280/.302	.108	.290	12	9	35%	9%	64	-0.8	.186/.282/.297	.111	.284	12	10	36%	10%	64	-0.8	.157/.270/.260	.103	.237	12	12	35%	11%	49	-0.8
✕Kyle Martin 2018 · AA	25	35→37	48→50	44→40	39	.189/.246/.326	.138	.253	17	4	32%	6%	55	-1.4	.180/.241/.300	.120	.254	13	5	33%	7%	46	-2.0	.161/.228/.294	.133	.225	15	1	35%	7%	38	-1.5
✕Will Robertson 2023 · AA	25	39→42	47→55	39→45	37	.196/.258/.331	.135	.292	14	5	36%	6%	61	-1.0	.202/.263/.363	.161	.288	19	6	35%	7%	72	-0.2	.198/.263/.366	.168	.274	20	5	35%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Devin Foyle 2022 · AA	25	40→37	46→45	48→45	44	.205/.275/.336	.132	.274	14	11	30%	8%	69	-0.4	.212/.284/.329	.117	.274	12	7	26%	8%	71	-0.3	.192/.282/.265	.072	.245	6	0	22%	10%	51	-0.6
✕Gabe Matthews 2023 · AAA	25	37→41	48→50	47→40	41	.188/.271/.327	.138	.287	15	5	38%	8%	66	-0.6	.206/.299/.338	.132	.309	15	5	35%	9%	82	+0.5	.200/.311/.326	.126	.298	15	2	34%	11%	81	+0.3
✕Collin DeLome 2011 · AAA	25	35→37	50→55	52→50	33	.191/.238/.346	.155	.269	19	13	36%	4%	56	-1.3	.198/.249/.325	.127	.297	13	14	36%	5%	55	-1.4	.200/.253/.323	.123	.306	11	16	36%	4%	53	-0.7
✕Richie Robnett 2009 · AAA	25	43	46→50	45	40	.214/.268/.342	.127	.302	13	5	33%	6%	67	-0.5	.212/.260/.324	.112	.295	9	9	30%	6%	59	-1.1	.203/.241/.315	.112	.273	7	11	28%	5%	45	-1.0
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	45→50	48→50	37	.186/.248/.306	.120	.290	14	12	39%	7%	50	-1.7	.185/.245/.287	.102	.286	9	10	36%	7%	43	-2.2	.153/.212/.244	.092	.224	3	6	32%	7%	14	-1.0
✕David Washington 2016 · AA	25	39→37	49→55	42→45	36	.196/.255/.339	.143	.316	17	5	42%	7%	62	-0.9	.207/.267/.378	.171	.339	22	6	43%	7%	77	+0.1	.203/.265/.391	.188	.323	26	6	43%	8%	76	+0.1
✕Seth Gray 2023 · AA	25	38	44→45	47→50	38	.186/.263/.294	.108	.300	13	8	40%	7%	54	-1.4	.205/.282/.312	.107	.343	12	13	40%	8%	66	-0.6	.202/.287/.300	.098	.353	11	19	41%	9%	62	-0.5
✕Conner Capel 2022 · AAA	25	42→45	47→45	47→55	42	.214/.265/.348	.133	.268	16	10	26%	6%	68	-0.5	.218/.289/.347	.129	.274	14	19	24%	9%	78	+0.2	.207/.288/.330	.122	.263	13	22	25%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Shane Matheny 2022 · AA	26	38→42	43→45	47→50	39	.187/.250/.294	.107	.292	11	6	38%	7%	48	-1.9	.201/.285/.328	.127	.324	14	9	38%	10%	72	-0.2	.191/.281/.316	.125	.300	14	9	38%	10%	64	-0.5
✕Michael Burgess 2014 · AA	25	37→42	47→55	43→45	43	.196/.255/.332	.136	.253	15	2	29%	7%	60	-1.0	.218/.260/.369	.151	.281	15	6	28%	5%	71	-0.3	.247/.281/.443	.195	.300	19	6	24%	4%	100	+1.1
✕Chad Spanberger 2021 · AA	25	41→43	50→55	47→45	40	.216/.265/.367	.151	.278	18	8	29%	6%	73	-0.1	.195/.252/.337	.142	.310	17	6	41%	6%	60	-1.0	.156/.216/.301	.145	.248	20	3	44%	6%	33	-1.6
✕Quincy Latimore 2014 · AA	25	40→42	46→50	43→50	39	.205/.258/.334	.128	.275	14	8	30%	6%	61	-1.0	.218/.270/.353	.135	.288	15	10	29%	6%	71	-0.3	.208/.262/.346	.138	.275	16	8	30%	6%	63	-0.6
✕Jackson Cluff 2022 · AA	25	39→29	40→45	50→55	38	.192/.256/.284	.092	.277	8	12	32%	5%	48	-1.9	.179/.255/.283	.104	.283	9	15	37%	8%	47	-1.9	.181/.273/.314	.132	.266	14	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Ross Adolph 2022 · AA	25	41→33	44→45	44→50	39	.192/.273/.308	.117	.318	12	8	40%	8%	62	-0.9	.208/.312/.331	.123	.364	12	11	42%	10%	85	+0.7	.191/.333/.297	.106	.358	9	16	41%	13%	84	+0.3
✕Drew Vettleson 2017 · AA	26	37→47	44→45	49→50	33	.189/.226/.300	.111	.290	12	10	38%	5%	38	-2.6	.193/.233/.301	.108	.315	12	13	41%	5%	42	-2.3	.136/.157/.214	.079	.232	12	21	47%	2%	-17	-1.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)