Thomas Conrad

P Wilson Warbirds

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	MIX2 levels	26	56	4.85	4.75	19.3%	14.8%	—	K 14.5% · BB 17.3% · FIP 5.66
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIL	34	36	5.64	5.64	17.7%	15.9%	-0.4
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIL	25	26	5.30	5.15	19.6%	13.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIL	38	40	5.00	4.84	20.8%	12.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsCory Thompson (age 22) · Tyler Smith (age 22) · Michael Perez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%17.7%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%1.8%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	56	243	47	36	6	0%	2.1	14.5%	17.3%	-2.8%	2.9%	4.85	5.66	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	56	243	47	36	6	0%	2.1	14.5%	17.3%	-2.8%	2.9%	4.85	5.66	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	56	243	47	36	6	0%	2.1	19.3%	14.8%	4.5%	2.5%	4.85	4.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	34	0	36	152	27	24	5	0%	1.1	17.7%	15.9%	1.8%	3.0%	5.64	5.64	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	50	0	53	222	44	30	7	0%	1.1	19.6%	13.6%	6.0%	2.9%	5.30	5.15	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	52	0	55	231	48	28	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	2.9%	5.00	4.84	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	25	0	26	110	22	15	3	0%	1.0	19.6%	13.6%	6.0%	2.9%	5.30	5.15	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	38	0	40	169	35	20	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	2.9%	5.00	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	277	56	35	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	12.7%	7.7%	2.9%	5.12	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	107	24	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.7%	7.7%	2.9%	5.12	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		26	0	56	243	35	42	7	0%	2.1	14.5%	17.3%	-2.8%	2.9%	4.85	5.66	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	0	200	873	126	151	25	0%	2.1	14.5%	17.3%	-2.8%	2.9%	4.85	5.66	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas Conrad (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	17.7%	15.9%	3.0%	—	4.99	20.2%	7.4%	107	-0.65	—	—	—
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	88
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	88
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	86
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	86
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	86
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	86
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	86
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	85
Mario Alcantara R 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SU	4.83	16.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.292	4.64	17.0%	0.9%	97	-0.19	4.36	171	85
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	85
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	85
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	84
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	84
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	84
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	84
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	84
Luis Almonte R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	20	SU	4.51	15.5%	15.9%	1.3%	.286	2.93	25.7%	19.4%	52	-1.58	2.20	105	84
Adilson Peralta R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	21	SU	5.29	20.9%	17.5%	3.2%	.316	5.11	18.7%	3.0%	83	-0.18	3.79	181	84
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	84
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	19.6%	13.6%	1.13	5.27
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*