Dylan Grego

SS Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 23 S/R 6'1" / 195 lbs A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ASD	138	.246/.328/.369	3	2	56	—	.198/.263/.286
2026	22	AAA/A+/ASD	333	.219/.296/.346	5	4	38	—	.181/.240/.284
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBSD	443	.192/.252/.286	6	7	52	-0.4
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBSD	97	.194/.255/.294	2	2	57	-0.2
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBSD	160	.197/.259/.303	3	3	61	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Z-Con%61

Whiff%53

Speed31

ISO20

K%17

BB%17

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsYasel Antuna (age 23) · Arquímedes Gamboa (age 23) · Raymel Flores (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .250 / .284

PA210

HR3

K%31

BB%7

ISO94

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 31 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT31

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	138	122	30	4	1	3	14	32	1	2	1	246	328	369	697	123	307	23	10	315	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	20	18	9	3	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	500	550	667	1.217	167	600	15	10	534	204	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	155	135	22	7	1	1	12	49	1	1	2	163	236	252	488	89	241	32	8	216	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	158	139	33	6	2	4	16	34	1	3	2	237	321	396	716	158	284	22	10	317	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	138	126	25	3	1	2	10	46	1	2	1	198	263	286	548	87	289	33	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	20	19	9	3	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	474	500	632	1.132	158	565	20	5	469	204	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	155	138	18	5	1	1	9	62	1	1	2	130	189	203	392	72	208	40	6	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	158	144	28	5	2	3	11	46	1	3	2	194	256	319	576	125	249	29	7	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	138	126	25	3	1	2	10	46	1	2	1	198	263	286	548	87	291	33	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	138	122	30	4	1	3	14	32	1	2	1	246	328	369	697	123	307	23	10	315	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	333	301	55	13	3	4	21	112	2	4	4	183	241	286	526	103	271	34	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	3 teams	—	333	292	64	16	3	5	30	86	2	4	4	219	296	346	642	127	289	26	9	283	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	138	126	25	3	1	2	10	46	1	2	1	198	263	286	548	87	289	33	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	333	307	55	13	3	4	21	112	2	4	4	179	241	280	521	101	249	34	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	138	126	25	3	1	2	10	46	1	2	1	198	263	286	548	87	289	33	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	3 teams	—	333	307	55	13	3	4	21	112	2	4	4	179	241	280	521	101	249	34	6	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SD	0%	443	407	78	16	2	6	30	137	3	7	3	192	252	286	539	94	270	31	7	245	52	-26	+0	+0	+5	+10	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	30%	321	294	58	12	2	5	22	97	2	6	2	197	258	299	557	102	273	30	7	252	57	-16	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	SD	44%	363	332	67	14	2	6	25	108	3	6	2	200	262	308	570	108	274	30	7	258	61	-17	+0	+0	+4	+8	-0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	SD	51%	386	353	72	15	2	7	27	114	3	7	3	203	266	314	580	111	275	30	7	261	63	-17	+0	+0	+4	+8	-0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	SD	52%	392	358	73	15	2	7	28	115	3	7	3	204	267	316	584	112	275	29	7	263	64	-17	+0	+0	+4	+8	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	30%	97	89	17	3	0	2	7	29	1	2	1	194	255	294	549	100	267	30	7	249	57	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	SD	44%	160	147	30	6	1	3	11	48	1	3	1	197	259	303	562	106	268	30	7	254	61	-8	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	SD	51%	196	179	36	7	1	4	14	58	1	3	1	199	262	309	572	110	269	30	7	258	63	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	SD	52%	205	186	37	7	1	4	15	60	2	4	1	201	264	312	576	111	269	29	7	260	64	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	658	601	120	23	3	13	47	195	5	12	4	200	263	313	576	113	270	30	7	256	56	-30	+1	+0	+7	+14	-0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	119	23	3	13	46	193	5	12	4	200	264	315	578	114	271	30	7	256	56	-29	+1	+0	+7	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	2143	1957	388	80	13	34	147	657	15	35	16	198	260	305	564	106	277	31	7	252	56	-79	+1	+0	+18	+36	-2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	117	24	4	10	45	199	5	11	5	197	260	301	561	104	275	31	7	252	56	-31	+1	+0	+7	+14	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 158 PAwOBA .311 → .246 (−65)K% 21.5% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.52%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	29.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.13%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	6.99%
HBP% /PA	0.63%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.49%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.981	—	18.04%
Doubles /BIP	5.71%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.981	—	4.65%
Triples /BIP	1.90%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.981	—	1.70%
Home runs /BIP	3.81%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	3.05%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .311 → .246; ISO .158 → .124; BABIP .284 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 155 PAwOBA .214 → .171 (−43)K% 31.6% → 40.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.61%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	40.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.74%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	5.56%
HBP% /PA	0.65%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.52%
Singles /BIP	15.12%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.971	×1.012	13.66%
Doubles /BIP	8.14%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.971	×1.012	6.48%
Triples /BIP	1.16%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.971	×1.012	0.97%
Home runs /BIP	1.16%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.94%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .214 → .171; ISO .089 → .069; BABIP .241 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 20 PAwOBA .520 → .469 (−51)K% 15.0% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.25%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	40.00%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×1.050	39.06%
Doubles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.050	17.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .520 → .469; ISO .167 → .145; BABIP .600 → .565. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 138 PAwOBA .309 → .251 (−58)K% 23.2% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.19%	÷0.956	×1.360	—	—	33.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.14%	÷0.952	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.46%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.57%
Singles /BIP	24.44%	÷0.989	×0.920	×1.032	×1.015	23.83%
Doubles /BIP	4.44%	÷1.062	×0.830	×1.032	×1.015	3.64%
Triples /BIP	1.11%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.032	×1.015	0.92%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷0.936	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.89%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .309 → .251; ISO .123 → .094; BABIP .307 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tim Bogar'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,710 PA	2.6	1,710	24	13	217*	284*	324*	+11	+37	2.1	2.9
/162	664	9	5	+4.2	+14.4	0.8	pk7: 4
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Pete Mackanin'73-'81 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,686 PA	2.5	1,686	30	27	222*	261*	370*	+6	+23	0.6	1.6
/162	664	12	11	+2.4	+8.9	0.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.3	868	14	15	200	259	306	+9	+9	-0.8	-0.4
/162	664	11	11	+7.1	+6.9	-0.6	pk7: 0
#4Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#5David Howard'91-'99 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	11	23	220*	280*	301*	+10	+23	-1.6	-0.8
/162	664	4	9	+3.7	+8.5	-0.6	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dylan Grego (OGILVIE)	23	26→31	37→42	45→50	50	191/250/284	93	270	3	3	31%	7%	52	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yasel Antuna 2023 · AA	23	37→35	43→45	48→50	48	187/265/295	108	254	11	14	30%	9%	60	-1.6	188/267/285	97	271	9	13	31%	9%	59	-1.7	142/231/221	79	208	7	12	33%	9%	30	-1.5
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2021 · AA	23	39→44	37→40	51→50	46	186/263/256	70	278	4	15	32%	9%	50	-2.3	206/285/302	96	295	8	14	30%	10%	69	-0.9	202/287/292	90	293	7	15	31%	10%	64	-0.7
✕Raymel Flores 2018 · AA	23	41	36→45	46→50	37	193/245/261	67	295	4	11	34%	6%	43	-2.8	192/243/262	70	291	4	11	33%	6%	43	-2.8	148/195/185	37	229	0	13	34%	5%	4	-1.7
✕Fabian Pertuz 2024 · AA	23	35→36	40	51→55	36	179/227/266	87	258	7	13	33%	5%	38	-3.2	186/239/281	95	297	9	11	38%	6%	46	-2.6	156/208/244	89	265	10	7	43%	5%	24	-2.2
✕Gerard Hall 2011 · A	23	41→39	37→40	49→50	44	196/256/272	76	277	4	12	29%	7%	50	-2.3	214/267/300	86	306	3	10	29%	7%	61	-1.5	223/273/313	90	321	0	8	28%	6%	63	-0.7
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	38→30	42→45	48→50	41	192/253/286	94	259	11	15	30%	6%	53	-2.1	198/271/310	112	262	13	14	28%	8%	66	-1.1	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Jacob Berry 2024 · AA	23	40→44	43→45	53→55	39	200/248/313	113	255	10	8	26%	4%	57	-1.8	212/270/321	109	266	10	17	23%	6%	67	-1.1	213/278/320	107	261	10	21	22%	7%	69	-0.8
✕Jobduan Morales 2014 · A	23	37	37→40	49→40	42	180/245/252	72	276	5	4	35%	8%	42	-2.9	199/258/286	87	302	7	5	34%	7%	54	-2.0	194/253/287	94	299	7	3	35%	7%	53	-1.0
✕Jake Rucker 2023 · AAA	23	42	41→45	48→50	44	205/278/313	108	281	8	12	28%	7%	69	-0.9	206/265/307	101	267	9	9	25%	6%	62	-1.4	206/270/322	116	240	13	9	20%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Vicente Conde 2017 · AA	23	40→35	39→45	46→45	44	193/259/279	85	278	5	7	31%	8%	53	-2.1	176/251/260	84	258	6	6	31%	9%	47	-2.6	105/203/174	69	168	5	2	38%	10%	9	-1.6
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2006 · AA	23	38	37→40	45→40	41	181/243/252	71	264	4	7	31%	7%	41	-3.0	190/242/269	79	270	5	4	30%	5%	45	-2.7	208/273/289	82	286	7	0	28%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	36	43→50	49→40	39	181/242/290	109	276	11	4	37%	7%	50	-2.3	203/259/322	119	277	12	4	30%	6%	63	-1.3	215/280/358	143	272	16	1	27%	7%	77	-0.1
✕Jeison Guzmán 2022 · AA	23	44→43	42→45	46→50	37	214/256/320	106	293	9	13	30%	4%	61	-1.5	211/277/335	124	327	13	10	37%	7%	74	-0.6	182/267/321	139	298	16	6	41%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	39	43→45	51→55	40	194/269/303	109	291	11	13	35%	7%	63	-1.3	205/275/304	99	311	8	12	34%	8%	65	-1.2	176/264/251	75	285	3	11	36%	10%	48	-0.5
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→30	50→45	40	185/239/261	76	255	4	8	28%	6%	42	-2.9	210/271/302	92	296	8	10	30%	7%	63	-1.4	202/270/282	80	285	9	12	31%	7%	57	-0.4
✕Taylor Gushue 2017 · A	23	39	41→45	44→30	39	194/237/289	96	255	8	3	27%	5%	47	-2.5	194/246/312	118	263	14	2	31%	6%	56	-1.9	199/260/326	127	276	15	0	32%	7%	63	-0.7
✕J.C. Millan 2019 · AA	23	43	40	48→30	43	210/260/303	93	264	8	8	23%	6%	59	-1.7	226/272/327	101	277	9	6	21%	6%	69	-0.9	231/271/321	91	275	9	2	19%	5%	63	-0.7
✕Cody Bohanek 2019 · AAA	24	39→36	38→40	46→50	41	187/264/259	71	271	7	10	31%	6%	52	-2.2	177/268/264	87	291	8	12	39%	8%	55	-1.9	149/254/236	86	262	7	16	41%	8%	43	-1.6
✕Luis Alexander Basabe 2020 · AA	23	43→45	42→45	48→50	41	204/268/307	102	314	9	13	36%	8%	63	-1.4	206/278/308	102	342	9	15	39%	9%	67	-1.1	180/275/282	101	311	11	19	41%	11%	58	-0.3
✕J.T. Arruda 2022 · A	24	38→42	38→40	53→55	43	184/250/264	80	271	5	13	32%	8%	47	-2.6	201/277/290	89	292	6	20	30%	9%	63	-1.4	207/270/292	85	284	7	22	28%	7%	58	-1.0

Dylan Grego

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps