Jeison Guzmán
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AA/A+/INTL3 orgs | 326 | .247/.304/.380 | 6 | 12 | 53 | — | .217/.265/.339 |
| 2022 | 23 | AANorthwest Ark… | 80 | .246/.350/.377 | 2 | 2 | 65 | — | .208/.288/.319 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA/ROK2 orgs | 284 | .234/.346/.414 | 9 | 4 | 65 | — | .184/.272/.332 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | AZL Royals | — | 246 | 223 | 55 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 21 | 50 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 247 | 314 | 354 | 669 | 108 | 314 | 20 | 9 | 301 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | Burlington Royals | — | 229 | 193 | 40 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 207 | 292 | 249 | 540 | 41 | 263 | 20 | 9 | 241 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 236 | 209 | 50 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 58 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 239 | 312 | 349 | 661 | 110 | 322 | 25 | 8 | 294 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Burlington Royals | — | 119 | 106 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 283 | 356 | 368 | 724 | 85 | 318 | 13 | 10 | 327 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 490 | 450 | 114 | 23 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 98 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 253 | 297 | 373 | 670 | 120 | 308 | 20 | 5 | 292 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 136 | 125 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 216 | 263 | 328 | 591 | 112 | 305 | 30 | 4 | 261 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 160 | 142 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 289 | 357 | 465 | 821 | 176 | 352 | 22 | 8 | 358 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | INTL | Estrellas Orientales | — | 30 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 207 | 179 | 385 | 278 | 33 | 3 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 80 | 69 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 246 | 350 | 377 | 727 | 130 | 349 | 30 | 12 | 332 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 252 | 213 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 89 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 244 | 351 | 423 | 773 | 178 | 373 | 35 | 12 | 342 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK | ACL Royals | — | 32 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 312 | 346 | 659 | 192 | 167 | 22 | 12 | 305 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 246 | 231 | 44 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 72 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 190 | 237 | 273 | 509 | 82 | 264 | 29 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 229 | 200 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 64 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 180 | 241 | 215 | 456 | 35 | 230 | 28 | 6 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 236 | 215 | 44 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 78 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 205 | 260 | 298 | 557 | 93 | 292 | 33 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 119 | 110 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 236 | 288 | 318 | 606 | 82 | 270 | 19 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 490 | 459 | 98 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 123 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 214 | 245 | 307 | 552 | 94 | 269 | 25 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 136 | 127 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 205 | 241 | 307 | 548 | 102 | 295 | 35 | 3 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 160 | 145 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 47 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 228 | 287 | 366 | 652 | 138 | 296 | 29 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 80 | 72 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 287 | 319 | 607 | 111 | 318 | 38 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 252 | 222 | 43 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 107 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 194 | 278 | 338 | 616 | 144 | 320 | 42 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL Royals | — | 32 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 107 | 219 | 286 | 504 | 179 | 122 | 31 | 6 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 246 | 231 | 44 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 72 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 190 | 237 | 273 | 509 | 82 | 272 | 29 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK RAW | AZL Royals | — | 246 | 223 | 55 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 21 | 50 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 247 | 314 | 354 | 669 | 108 | 314 | 20 | 9 | 301 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 229 | 200 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 64 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 180 | 241 | 215 | 456 | 35 | 257 | 28 | 6 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK RAW | Burlington Royals | — | 229 | 193 | 40 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 207 | 292 | 249 | 540 | 41 | 263 | 20 | 9 | 241 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 355 | 325 | 68 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 100 | 4 | 26 | 5 | 209 | 264 | 283 | 547 | 74 | 293 | 28 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 355 | 315 | 80 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 74 | 4 | 26 | 5 | 254 | 327 | 356 | 682 | 102 | 321 | 21 | 8 | 305 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 490 | 459 | 98 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 123 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 214 | 245 | 307 | 552 | 94 | 279 | 25 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A RAW | Lexington Legends | — | 490 | 450 | 114 | 23 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 98 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 253 | 297 | 373 | 670 | 120 | 308 | 20 | 5 | 292 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 326 | 300 | 64 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 104 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 213 | 260 | 327 | 587 | 113 | 306 | 32 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 326 | 295 | 73 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 86 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 247 | 304 | 380 | 684 | 132 | 327 | 26 | 6 | 300 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 80 | 72 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 287 | 319 | 607 | 111 | 325 | 38 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 80 | 69 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 246 | 350 | 377 | 727 | 130 | 349 | 30 | 12 | 332 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 249 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 117 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 185 | 275 | 325 | 600 | 141 | 302 | 41 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 284 | 239 | 56 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 96 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 234 | 346 | 414 | 761 | 180 | 346 | 34 | 12 | 338 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 246 | 230 | 44 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 72 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 191 | 237 | 274 | 511 | 83 | 264 | 29 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 229 | 211 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 64 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 171 | 241 | 204 | 445 | 33 | 230 | 28 | 6 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 355 | 328 | 68 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 100 | 4 | 26 | 5 | 207 | 264 | 280 | 544 | 73 | 285 | 28 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 490 | 468 | 98 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 123 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 209 | 245 | 301 | 546 | 92 | 269 | 25 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 326 | 304 | 64 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 104 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 211 | 260 | 322 | 583 | 112 | 296 | 32 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 80 | 72 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 287 | 319 | 607 | 111 | 318 | 38 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 251 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 117 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 183 | 275 | 323 | 598 | 139 | 298 | 41 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2010 | 1836 | 371 | 64 | 17 | 24 | 108 | 610 | 23 | 69 | 34 | 202 | 255 | 295 | 550 | 93 | 286 | 30 | 5 | 237 | 47 | -127 | +0 | +0 | +22 | +44 | -6.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 120 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 197 | 7 | 22 | 11 | 202 | 255 | 295 | 549 | 93 | 286 | 30 | 5 | 237 | 47 | -41 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 252 PAwOBA .336 → .272 (−65)K% 35.3% → 42.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.32% | ÷1.014 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.90% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.98% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.81% | ÷1.055 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 23.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.06% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 6.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.062 | ×0.940 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.872 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.91% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 111, 2B 126, 3B 112, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .336 → .272; ISO .178 → .150; BABIP .373 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Royals · 32 PAwOBA .298 → .200 (−98)K% 21.9% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.88% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.982 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.25% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 4.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 7.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.932 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 3.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 3.88% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 86, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .298 → .200; ISO .192 → .135; BABIP .167 → .122. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 80 PAwOBA .324 → .265 (−59)K% 30.0% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.993 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.25% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 24.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.009 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 5.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.44% | ÷0.905 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.97% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .324 → .265; ISO .130 → .108; BABIP .349 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 160 PAwOBA .353 → .279 (−74)K% 21.9% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.88% | ÷1.013 | ×1.350 | — | — | 29.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.50% | ÷0.988 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.88% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.36% | ÷1.059 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 19.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.28% | ÷0.991 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 8.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.988 | ×0.820 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.74% | ÷1.013 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 3.06% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 98, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .353 → .279; ISO .176 → .139; BABIP .352 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 136 PAwOBA .254 → .225 (−28)K% 30.1% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.15% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.41% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.027 | 3.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.24% | ÷0.980 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 20.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.117 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 8.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.957 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.99% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 107, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .254 → .225; ISO .112 → .091; BABIP .305 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ALexington Legends · 490 PAwOBA .286 → .235 (−51)K% 20.0% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.066 | ×1.340 | — | — | 25.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.10% | ÷1.047 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 3.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.44% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.015 | 20.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.53% | ÷1.020 | ×0.820 | ×0.976 | ×1.015 | 5.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.42% | ÷1.013 | ×0.940 | ×0.976 | ×1.015 | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.99% | ÷1.095 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 103, 2B 104, 3B 103, K 113, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .286 → .235; ISO .120 → .096; BABIP .308 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ALexington Legends · 236 PAwOBA .287 → .232 (−55)K% 24.6% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.58% | ÷1.000 | ×1.340 | — | — | 32.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.63% | ÷1.016 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 5.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.52% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | ×1.046 | ×1.030 | 21.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.28% | ÷1.112 | ×0.820 | ×1.046 | ×1.030 | 5.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.99% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.046 | ×1.030 | 1.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.051 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 1.06% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 109, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .287 → .232; ISO .110 → .085; BABIP .322 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKBurlington Royals · 119 PAwOBA .319 → .251 (−68)K% 13.4% → 19.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.45% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 19.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.995 | 6.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.030 | ×0.995 | 24.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.030 | ×0.995 | 0.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.030 | ×0.995 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.995 | 1.77% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .319 → .251; ISO .085 → .066; BABIP .318 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .