Gabel Pentecost

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECTFG #568

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	AHOU	4	2	17	4.24	3.63	27.1%	10.0%	—	K 20.1% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.94
2027PROJ	24	MLBHOU	10	10	57	4.70	4.70	20.7%	10.3%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBHOU	4	4	25	4.59	4.54	21.4%	9.6%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBHOU	6	6	38	4.53	4.50	21.7%	9.5%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff47Control50Command55FB velo44

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Cooper Chandler (age 24) · Carlos Sano (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%20.7%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF3545

CTRL—50

CMD4055

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	4	2	17	70	19	7	2	50%	4.2	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	3.7%	4.24	4.94	—
2026	23	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	4	2	17	70	19	7	2	50%	4.2	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	3.7%	4.24	4.94	—
2026	23	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	4	2	17	70	19	7	2	50%	4.2	27.1%	10.0%	17.1%	2.9%	4.24	3.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	HOU	10	10	57	241	50	25	7	100%	5.7	20.7%	10.3%	10.4%	3.0%	4.70	4.70	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	58	244	52	23	7	100%	5.8	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	3.0%	4.59	4.54	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	58	244	53	23	7	100%	5.8	21.7%	9.5%	12.2%	3.0%	4.53	4.50	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	9	9	57	240	52	23	7	100%	6.3	21.8%	9.6%	12.2%	3.1%	4.53	4.53	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	25	106	23	10	3	100%	6.2	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	3.0%	4.59	4.54	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	38	160	35	15	5	100%	6.3	21.7%	9.5%	12.2%	3.0%	4.53	4.50	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	44	186	40	18	6	100%	6.3	21.8%	9.6%	12.2%	3.1%	4.53	4.53	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	107	452	98	43	14	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	3.0%	4.54	4.15	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	183	80	26	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	3.0%	4.54	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		4	2	17	70	14	8	3	50%	4.2	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	3.7%	4.24	4.94	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	24	200	824	165	97	31	50%	4.2	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	3.7%	4.24	4.94	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabel Pentecost (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	20.7%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.52	21.6%	12.1%	172	-0.18	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	87
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	86
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	83
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	81
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	81
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	81
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.87	17.1%	9.0%	186	+1.89	3.98	418	80
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	80
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	80
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	79
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	79
Ryan Drese R 2001 · 3.58 FIP	25	SW	3.58	16.1%	8.7%	1.3%	.273	4.20	12.8%	5.2%	391	+0.62	3.58	557	79
James Hicks R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	23	SW	4.23	19.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.338	4.60	17.1%	9.7%	166	+0.37	4.23	272	79
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	78
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	78
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	77
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	77
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	57	21.4%	9.8%	1.17	4.59
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*