Ethan Storm

P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 214 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ATB	25	14	96	6.09	3.94	20.5%	13.9%	—	K 15.2% · BB 16.4% · FIP 4.84
2027PROJ	23	MLBTB	10	10	67	5.54	5.54	17.0%	15.7%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBTB	6	6	38	5.20	5.08	18.7%	13.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBTB	9	9	59	4.95	4.82	19.7%	12.1%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsIke Buxton (age 23) · Wills Montgomerie (age 23) · Jacob Meador (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%17.0%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	14	96	453	93	63	6	56%	3.8	15.2%	16.4%	-1.2%	1.7%	6.09	4.84	—
2026	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	14	96	453	93	63	6	56%	3.8	15.2%	16.4%	-1.2%	1.7%	6.09	4.84	—
2026	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	25	14	96	453	93	63	6	56%	3.8	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	1.3%	6.09	3.94	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TB	10	10	67	283	48	44	8	100%	6.7	17.0%	15.7%	1.2%	2.7%	5.54	5.54	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	89	374	70	51	10	100%	6.8	18.7%	13.5%	5.1%	2.7%	5.24	5.12	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	90	379	74	46	10	100%	6.9	19.7%	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	4.99	4.86	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	90	379	77	45	10	100%	6.9	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	2.8%	4.86	4.79	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	88	373	76	44	10	100%	6.8	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	2.8%	4.83	4.81	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	86	362	73	43	11	100%	7.1	20.1%	12.0%	8.1%	2.9%	4.87	4.90	0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	82	345	69	42	11	100%	6.8	19.9%	12.2%	7.6%	3.1%	4.96	5.03	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	77	325	70	38	11	100%	7.0	21.5%	11.7%	9.8%	3.3%	4.95	4.94	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	38	160	30	22	4	100%	6.3	18.7%	13.5%	5.1%	2.7%	5.20	5.08	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	59	249	49	30	7	100%	6.6	19.7%	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	4.95	4.82	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	71	300	61	36	8	100%	7.1	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	2.7%	4.82	4.75	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	75	317	64	38	9	100%	6.8	20.2%	11.8%	8.4%	2.7%	4.79	4.77	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	76	321	65	39	9	100%	6.9	20.1%	12.0%	8.1%	2.8%	4.83	4.86	0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	74	312	62	38	9	100%	6.7	19.9%	12.2%	7.6%	3.0%	4.91	4.98	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	71	300	65	35	9	100%	7.1	21.5%	11.7%	9.8%	3.2%	4.90	4.89	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	68	465	1964	396	238	56	100%	6.8	20.1%	12.1%	8.1%	2.8%	4.89	4.48	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	170	102	24	100%	6.9	20.1%	12.1%	8.1%	2.8%	4.89	4.48	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		25	14	96	453	69	74	8	56%	3.8	15.2%	16.4%	-1.2%	1.7%	6.09	4.84	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	29	200	944	143	155	16	56%	3.8	15.2%	16.4%	-1.2%	1.7%	6.09	4.84	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Storm (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	17.0%	15.7%	2.7%	—	4.92	19.5%	7.0%	268	-0.62	—	—	—
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	88
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	87
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	87
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	86
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	86
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	86
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	84
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	83
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	82
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	82
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	81
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	81
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	81
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	81
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	81
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	81
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	80
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	84	19.7%	12.6%	1.11	5.02
Jake Wade ('36-'46, -1 WAR*)	3.3	84	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.08*	5.03*
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Steven Brault ('22)	1.8	59	18.8%	11.3%	0.97	4.73
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83
Robinson Tejeda ('11)	2.2	74	19.1%	12.6%	0.96	4.42