Ricardo Heredia

P DSL Astros Blue

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL Astros Or…	9	3	22	4.09	3.51	23.8%	18.8%	—	K 16.2% · BB 23.5% · FIP 4.71
2026	20	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	12	6	30	4.45	5.21	16.6%	22.8%	—	K 11.3% · BB 28.4% · FIP 6.28
2027PROJ	21	MLBHOU	15	0	16	6.02	6.02	18.6%	20.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBHOU	13	0	14	5.59	5.42	20.3%	16.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRadhames Liz (age 23) · Lisandro Almonte (age 21) · Reynardo Cruz (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA6.02

FIP6.02

K%18.6%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-1.4%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	9	3	22	101	24	19	0	33%	2.4	16.2%	23.5%	-7.4%	0.0%	4.09	4.71	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	9	3	22	101	24	19	0	33%	2.4	16.2%	23.5%	-7.4%	0.0%	4.09	4.71	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	9	3	22	101	24	19	0	33%	2.4	23.8%	18.8%	5.0%	0.0%	4.09	3.51	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	12	6	30	145	24	33	1	50%	2.5	11.3%	28.4%	-17.2%	1.0%	4.45	6.28	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	12	6	30	145	24	33	1	50%	2.5	11.3%	28.4%	-17.2%	1.0%	4.45	6.28	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	12	6	30	145	24	33	1	50%	2.5	16.6%	22.8%	-6.2%	0.7%	4.45	5.21	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	HOU	15	0	16	68	13	14	2	0%	1.1	18.6%	20.0%	-1.4%	2.9%	6.02	6.02	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	HOU	27	0	29	121	25	20	3	0%	1.1	20.3%	16.6%	3.7%	2.8%	5.59	5.42	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	HOU	13	0	14	59	12	10	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	16.6%	3.7%	2.8%	5.59	5.42	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	60	12	10	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	16.6%	3.7%	2.8%	5.59	5.04	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	142	28	0%	1.1	20.3%	16.6%	3.7%	2.8%	5.59	5.04	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		21	9	52	246	33	65	1	43%	2.5	13.3%	26.4%	-13.2%	0.6%	4.30	5.64	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	34	200	940	125	248	5	43%	2.5	13.3%	26.4%	-13.2%	0.6%	4.30	5.64	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricardo Heredia (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.02	18.6%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.42	20.3%	3.7%	29	-0.60	—	—	—
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	86
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	85
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	85
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	85
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	83
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	83
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	83
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	216	82
Alex Makarewich R 2024 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP-	6.15	19.7%	26.7%	2.4%	.425	5.15	26.4%	-3.3%	83	-1.00	4.26	110	81
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	81
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	81
Aneuris Rodriguez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	20	SW	5.22	16.0%	18.8%	2.0%	.310	6.65	14.6%	-15.5%	14	+1.43	3.15	118	80
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	80
Aneudis Mejia R 2023 · 7.12 FIP	19	SW	7.12	18.7%	29.9%	3.3%	.404	5.03	16.9%	1.3%	102	-2.09	4.36	122	79
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	79
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	79
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	79
Bryant Salgado R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	21	SW	5.65	14.2%	20.4%	2.1%	.219	4.83	15.9%	3.5%	89	-0.82	4.83	110	78
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	78
Jesús Palacios R 2024 · 5.24 FIP	19	SP-	5.24	19.7%	20.5%	2.2%	.279	4.92	20.4%	-0.6%	36	-0.32	2.43	128	78