Leonel Murrieta

P DSL Astros Orange

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs ROK peak 0.8 · 2032

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Astros Or…	12	8	48	2.79	4.07	14.4%	8.8%	—	K 9.8% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.72
2026	19	ROKDSL Astros Or…	12	9	40	5.17	2.93	16.6%	9.7%	—	K 11.3% · BB 12.1% · FIP 3.69
2027PROJ	20	MLB—	5	5	27	5.98	5.98	10.0%	14.1%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLB—	4	4	22	5.68	5.59	12.9%	13.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLB—	7	7	35	5.39	5.26	15.4%	12.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff20Control40Command25

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsFelix Cepeda (age 19) · Denis Diaz (age 20) · Juan Gomez (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 130

ERA5.98

FIP5.98

K%10.0%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%-4.1%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL4040

CMD2525

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	8	48	194	28	17	4	67%	4.0	9.8%	11.0%	-1.1%	1.9%	2.79	4.72	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	8	48	194	28	17	4	67%	4.0	9.8%	11.0%	-1.1%	1.9%	2.79	4.72	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	12	8	48	194	28	17	4	67%	4.0	14.4%	8.8%	5.7%	2.1%	2.79	4.07	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	9	40	175	29	17	0	75%	3.3	11.3%	12.1%	-0.9%	0.0%	5.17	3.69	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	9	40	175	29	17	0	75%	3.3	11.3%	12.1%	-0.9%	0.0%	5.17	3.69	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	12	9	40	175	29	17	0	75%	3.3	16.6%	9.7%	6.9%	0.0%	5.17	2.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	—	5	5	27	114	11	16	3	100%	5.4	10.0%	14.1%	-4.1%	2.8%	5.98	5.98	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	9	9	46	193	25	25	5	100%	5.1	12.9%	13.2%	-0.3%	2.8%	5.68	5.59	-0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	—	9	9	48	203	31	25	6	100%	5.3	15.4%	12.4%	3.0%	2.7%	5.39	5.26	-0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	—	9	9	50	210	36	25	6	100%	5.5	16.9%	11.9%	5.0%	2.7%	5.17	5.05	-0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	—	9	9	51	215	38	25	6	100%	5.7	17.8%	11.6%	6.2%	2.7%	5.02	4.93	-0.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	—	9	9	52	218	40	25	6	100%	5.7	18.2%	11.5%	6.7%	2.7%	4.93	4.87	+0.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	—	9	9	52	218	40	25	6	100%	5.7	18.4%	11.5%	6.9%	2.7%	4.88	4.85	+0.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	—	8	8	51	214	39	25	6	100%	6.3	18.4%	11.5%	6.9%	2.7%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	4	4	22	93	12	12	3	100%	5.5	12.9%	13.2%	-0.3%	2.8%	5.68	5.59	-0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	—	7	7	35	148	23	18	4	100%	5.0	15.4%	12.4%	3.0%	2.7%	5.39	5.26	-0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	—	8	8	42	177	30	21	5	100%	5.2	16.9%	11.9%	5.0%	2.7%	5.17	5.05	-0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	—	8	8	45	190	34	22	5	100%	5.6	17.8%	11.6%	6.2%	2.7%	5.02	4.93	-0.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	—	8	8	47	198	36	23	5	100%	5.9	18.2%	11.5%	6.7%	2.7%	4.93	4.87	+0.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	—	8	8	48	203	37	23	5	100%	6.0	18.4%	11.5%	6.9%	2.7%	4.88	4.85	+0.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	—	8	8	48	203	37	23	6	100%	6.0	18.4%	11.5%	6.9%	2.7%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	289	1219	210	144	33	100%	5.7	17.3%	11.8%	5.5%	2.7%	5.08	4.63	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	146	100	23	100%	5.6	17.3%	11.8%	5.5%	2.7%	5.08	4.63	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		24	17	88	369	39	42	4	71%	3.7	10.5%	11.5%	-1.0%	1.0%	3.87	4.23	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	38	200	835	88	96	8	71%	3.7	10.5%	11.5%	-1.0%	1.0%	3.87	4.23	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leonel Murrieta (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.98	10.0%	14.1%	2.8%	—	5.29	15.1%	2.7%	144	-0.69	—	—	—
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	90
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	88
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	86
Ramon Santos R 2015 · 6.07 FIP	20	SP	6.07	7.2%	14.3%	3.2%	.352	4.52	13.3%	3.4%	191	-1.55	3.74	355	86
Josh Swales R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	11.8%	14.6%	2.9%	.356	5.64	15.1%	1.4%	66	+0.13	5.51	129	85
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	84
Edelvis Perez R 2024 · 5.19 FIP	19	SP	5.19	11.9%	13.8%	2.4%	.267	5.56	17.9%	-1.9%	62	+0.37	5.19	103	84
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	83
Moises Ruiz R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	8.7%	12.8%	3.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	104	83
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	83
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	82
Darlin Alcántara R 2022 · 6.23 FIP	20	SP-	6.23	12.3%	22.2%	2.5%	.320	4.64	12.3%	2.5%	31	-1.59	3.61	118	82
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	82
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	81
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	81
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	81
Karsen Lindell R 2016 · 7.17 FIP	20	SP-	7.17	4.3%	20.7%	3.3%	.326	6.72	9.8%	-9.2%	54	-0.45	4.94	112	81
Jorge Bautista R 2021 · 6.09 FIP	20	SP	6.09	13.1%	16.5%	3.6%	.297	4.86	16.8%	7.5%	231	-1.23	3.80	336	81
Harold Chirino R 2017 · 6.05 FIP	19	SP-	6.05	13.2%	16.0%	3.7%	.327	3.11	19.0%	6.2%	34	-2.94	3.11	321	80
Yovanny Cabrera R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP	5.18	14.5%	13.7%	2.9%	.238	5.21	18.5%	1.6%	149	+0.03	4.39	243	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	47	16.4%	12.1%	1.05	5.19
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*