Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026
22
A
Ontario Tower Buzzers
—
192
171
51
9
4
7
13
62
6
3
4
298
368
520
889
222
427
32
7
386
80
—
—
—
—
—
—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026
22
AMLE
Ontario Tower Buzzers
—
192
176
40
7
3
5
8
84
6
3
4
227
284
386
671
159
387
44
4
287
80
—
—
—
—
—
—
2026
22
AMLE
Ontario Tower Buzzers
—
192
176
40
7
3
5
8
84
6
3
4
227
284
386
671
159
398
44
4
287
80
—
—
—
—
—
—
2026
22
ARAW
Ontario Tower Buzzers
—
192
171
51
9
4
7
13
62
6
3
4
298
368
520
889
222
427
32
7
386
80
—
—
—
—
—
—
2026
22
AMLE
Ontario Tower Buzzers
—
192
176
40
7
3
5
8
84
6
3
4
227
284
386
671
159
387
44
4
287
80
—
—
—
—
—
—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026
22
AMLE
Ontario Tower Buzzers
—
192
176
40
7
3
5
8
84
6
3
4
227
284
386
671
159
387
44
4
287
80
—
—
—
—
—
—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027
23
MLBMLE
LAD
0%
302
277
57
10
3
6
18
98
4
6
2
208
267
333
600
125
292
32
6
269
68
-11
+0
+0
-3
+7
-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028
24
MLBMLE
LAD
30%
149
137
28
5
1
3
9
47
2
4
1
211
271
341
612
130
293
32
6
274
72
-5
+0
+0
-2
+3
-0.3
2029
25
MLBMLE
LAD
44%
211
192
41
7
2
5
14
66
3
5
2
213
275
346
621
133
293
31
7
278
74
-7
+0
+0
-2
+5
-0.4
2028
24
MLBCTX
LAD
30%
45
41
8
1
0
1
3
14
1
1
0
207
268
335
602
128
285
31
7
270
72
-2
+0
+0
-0
+1
-0.1
2029
25
MLBCTX
LAD
44%
93
86
18
3
1
2
6
29
1
2
1
209
271
340
611
131
285
31
6
274
74
-3
+0
+0
-1
+2
-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
A+C
—
138
127
26
4
1
3
9
43
2
3
1
205
268
323
591
118
284
31
7
273
74
-4
+0
+0
-1
+3
-0.3
/ 162G
—
A+C
—
650
598
123
19
5
14
42
203
9
14
5
206
268
324
592
119
286
31
6
273
74
-21
+1
+0
-7
+14
-1.3
Career
—
MLE
—
663
606
130
23
7
15
38
233
13
14
8
215
275
350
625
135
318
35
6
278
74
-16
+1
+0
-5
+10
-1.0
/ 162G
—
MLE
—
650
594
128
23
7
15
37
228
13
14
8
215
276
354
630
138
318
35
6
278
74
-22
+1
+0
-7
+14
-1.4
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .376 → .287; ISO .222 → .162; BABIP .427 → .387. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 1,717 completed hitter careers (533 from 2001-2025 + 1,184 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: slash era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels (actual on hover); WAR, POS and FLD are OGILVIE proxies.
career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons
0.4
249
6
6
211
269
341
-2
+0
-0.3
-0.1
/162
664
15
15
-5.4
+0.0
-0.7
pk7: 0
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection