Michael Hilker — OGILVIE

Michael Hilker P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.5 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%22.8%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.1M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	20	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	41	0	63	271	73	26	6	0%	1.5	20.7%	11.9%	8.8%	2.3%	2.86	4.10	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	41	0	63	271	73	26	6	0%	1.5	20.7%	11.9%	8.8%	2.3%	2.86	4.10	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	MIN	34	0	52	229	64	23	4	0%	1.5	27.9%	10.0%	17.9%	1.7%	2.75	2.97	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	MIN	7	0	11	42	9	3	2	0%	1.5	21.4%	7.1%	14.3%	4.8%	3.38	4.81	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIN	62	0	65	274	65	26	8	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.5%	14.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.29	+0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIN	64	0	67	284	69	26	8	0%	1.1	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	2.9%	4.24	4.14	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIN	66	0	69	291	72	25	8	0%	1.0	24.9%	8.7%	16.2%	2.9%	4.13	4.05	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIN	66	0	70	295	74	25	8	0%	1.1	25.3%	8.6%	16.7%	2.9%	4.05	4.00	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIN	66	0	70	295	75	25	8	0%	1.1	25.5%	8.5%	16.9%	2.9%	4.00	3.97	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIN	66	0	69	290	74	25	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	8.6%	16.9%	2.9%	4.01	4.01	+0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIN	64	0	67	282	71	25	8	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.7%	16.6%	3.0%	4.06	4.09	+0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIN	61	0	64	269	67	24	8	0%	1.0	25.1%	9.0%	16.1%	3.2%	4.16	4.22	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIN	30	0	32	135	32	13	4	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.5%	14.2%	2.9%	4.38	4.30	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIN	47	0	49	207	51	19	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	2.9%	4.25	4.15	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIN	54	0	57	241	60	21	7	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.7%	16.2%	2.9%	4.14	4.06	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIN	59	0	62	262	66	22	8	0%	1.1	25.3%	8.6%	16.7%	2.9%	4.06	4.01	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIN	61	0	64	270	69	23	8	0%	1.0	25.5%	8.5%	16.9%	2.9%	4.01	3.98	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIN	61	0	64	270	69	23	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	8.6%	16.9%	2.9%	4.02	4.02	+0.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIN	59	0	62	262	66	23	8	0%	1.1	25.3%	8.7%	16.6%	3.0%	4.07	4.10	+0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIN	58	0	61	258	65	23	8	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.0%	16.1%	3.2%	4.17	4.23	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		429	0	450	1900	476	167	56	0%	1.0	25.1%	8.8%	16.3%	2.9%	4.11	3.71	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	212	74	25	0%	1.1	25.1%	8.8%	16.3%	2.9%	4.11	3.71	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		42	0	65	277	59	32	6	0%	1.5	21.3%	11.6%	9.7%	2.2%	2.77	3.99	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	0	200	852	182	99	19	0%	1.5	21.3%	11.6%	9.7%	2.2%	2.77	3.99	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Hilker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	22.8%	10.4%	3.0%	—	4.16	24.4%	15.3%	201	-0.35	—	—	—
Nick Lockhart R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	21	SU	4.44	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.63	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.19	4.44	140	92
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	91
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	90
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	90
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	90
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	89
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	89
Gerson Moreno R 2017 · 3.76 FIP	21	SU	3.76	23.6%	12.1%	2.1%	.294	5.22	21.3%	2.0%	17	+1.46	3.44	349	88
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	88
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	87
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	87
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	87
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	87
Scott Williams R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	21	SU	3.39	22.0%	8.6%	1.9%	.238	3.73	19.3%	10.5%	76	+0.34	2.89	119	87
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	87
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	87
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	86
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	64	24.8%	8.9%	1.13	4.15
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33