Williams Montero
P
DSL Red Sox Red
+0.1
WAR
Age 18
RHP
6'0" / 160 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.7 · 2032
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.3%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%12.9%
IP37
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2032
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Red | 11 | 11 | 44 | 186 | 37 | 16 | 0 | 13.5% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 3.32 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | MLB | — | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 35 | 15 | 4 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | — | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 20 | MLB | — | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 23.3% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 21 | MLB | — | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 43 | 15 | 5 | 23.7% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 22 | MLB | — | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 47 | 16 | 5 | 24.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.89 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 23 | MLB | — | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 50 | 15 | 5 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 3.77 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 24 | MLB | — | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 53 | 15 | 5 | 25.8% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 3.75 | 3.68 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB | — | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 54 | 15 | 5 | 26.2% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 3.67 | 3.62 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 26 | MLB | — | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 54 | 15 | 5 | 26.4% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 3.63 | 3.60 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 27 | MLB | — | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 54 | 15 | 5 | 26.4% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 3.62 | 3.61 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 28 | MLB | — | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 53 | 15 | 5 | 26.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 3.63 | 3.64 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 29 | MLB | — | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 52 | 15 | 5 | 26.3% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.66 | 3.68 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 30 | MLB | — | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 50 | 15 | 5 | 26.1% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.71 | 3.74 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 31 | MLB | — | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 48 | 14 | 5 | 25.8% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 44 | 186 | 25 | 20 | 0 | 13.5% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 3.32 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 50 | 200 | 852 | 115 | 92 | 0 | 13.5% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 3.32 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Williams Montero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.14 | 23.3% | 14.5% | 123 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Harold Cortijo R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.46 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 5.60 | 13.5% | 2.2% | 73 | +1.14 | 4.15 | 179 | 93 |
| Yordin Chalas R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.60 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .294 | 3.94 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 116 | -0.66 | 3.68 | 140 | 91 |
| Nelfy Ynfante R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.30 | 18.1% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .309 | 4.38 | 16.3% | 4.6% | 155 | +0.08 | 3.71 | 227 | 90 |
| Alimber Santa R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.85 | 17.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .304 | 5.09 | 20.9% | 1.8% | 125 | +0.24 | 3.38 | 216 | 90 |
| Eccel Correa R 2028 · 4.34 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.34 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.01 | 14.2% | 3.6% | 122 | -0.33 | 3.99 | 157 | 90 |
| Luis Victorino R 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.27 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .301 | 4.96 | 15.9% | -5.0% | 84 | +0.69 | 4.27 | 118 | 90 |
| Eddy Yean R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.56 | 16.8% | 10.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 4.76 | 17.7% | 3.4% | 120 | +0.20 | 3.83 | 393 | 89 |
| Andry Lara R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.94 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 4.0% | .294 | 4.76 | 16.6% | 6.7% | 334 | -0.18 | 4.56 | 425 | 89 |
| Blake Workman R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.06 | 3.11 | 213 | 88 |
| Luis Aguilar R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.49 | 17.6% | 10.3% | 2.9% | .356 | 4.25 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 111 | -0.24 | 3.51 | 146 | 88 |
| Wilmy Sanchez R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.88 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .316 | 4.21 | 21.5% | 3.8% | 148 | +0.33 | 3.31 | 182 | 88 |
| Antwone Kelly R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.59 | 19.1% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 216 | -0.65 | 3.19 | 288 | 88 |
| Brandon Komar R 2028 · 4.74 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.74 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .327 | 4.93 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.19 | 3.03 | 538 | 88 |
| Mike Garcia R 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 17 | SU | 4.11 | 17.7% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 125 | 87 |
| Kevin Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.37 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .279 | 4.12 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 41 | -0.25 | 2.34 | 188 | 87 |
| Alec Kisena R 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.01 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 1.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 248 | 87 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 87 |
| Carlos Jimenez R 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 17 | SU | 4.07 | 18.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .324 | 4.70 | 20.9% | 5.2% | 104 | +0.63 | 4.07 | 257 | 87 |
| Leury Tejada R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.03 | 16.5% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .286 | 5.05 | 17.4% | 6.2% | 39 | +1.02 | 4.03 | 183 | 87 |
| Miguel Rondon R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.47 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .361 | 7.30 | 18.1% | 2.1% | 88 | +2.83 | 2.62 | 179 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.7 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $14M | +$10M | ||