Abraham Utrera

P DSL Giants Orange

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 168 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKDSL Giants Or…	17	1	24	4.50	5.10	18.3%	14.8%	—	K 12.4% · BB 18.5% · FIP 6.47
2026	21	ROKDSL Giants Or…	21	0	35	4.33	1.97	36.2%	13.1%	—	K 24.6% · BB 16.4% · FIP 3.58
2027PROJ	22	MLBSF	18	0	19	5.16	5.16	22.5%	15.6%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSF	15	0	16	4.91	4.80	23.3%	13.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBrandon Dufault (age 22) · Kasey Ford (age 23) · Morgan McSweeney (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%22.5%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	17	1	24	115	21	17	3	6%	1.4	12.4%	18.5%	-6.1%	3.8%	4.50	6.47	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	17	1	24	115	21	17	3	6%	1.4	12.4%	18.5%	-6.1%	3.8%	4.50	6.47	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	17	1	24	115	21	17	3	6%	1.4	18.3%	14.8%	3.5%	2.6%	4.50	5.10	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	21	0	35	160	58	21	1	0%	1.7	24.6%	16.4%	8.2%	0.9%	4.33	3.58	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	21	0	35	160	58	21	1	0%	1.7	24.6%	16.4%	8.2%	0.9%	4.33	3.58	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	21	0	35	160	58	21	1	0%	1.7	36.2%	13.1%	23.1%	0.6%	4.33	1.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SF	18	0	19	80	18	12	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.6%	6.9%	2.9%	5.16	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SF	31	0	33	139	32	19	4	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.91	4.80	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SF	15	0	16	68	16	9	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.91	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	68	16	9	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.91	4.42	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	111	25	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.91	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		38	1	59	275	54	48	6	3%	1.6	19.5%	17.3%	2.3%	2.1%	4.40	4.79	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	3	200	927	181	160	19	3%	1.6	19.5%	17.3%	2.3%	2.1%	4.40	4.79	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abraham Utrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	22.5%	15.6%	2.9%	—	4.80	23.3%	9.8%	33	-0.36	—	—	—
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	93
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	91
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	91
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	90
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	89
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	89
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	89
Samuel Carpio R 2024 · 4.20 FIP	21	SU	4.20	21.2%	15.3%	1.7%	.300	5.36	21.6%	-3.4%	112	+1.16	4.20	134	89
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	88
Gabriel Ponce R 2021 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	24.4%	16.2%	2.8%	.328	4.53	22.5%	7.8%	110	-0.09	4.45	161	87
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	87
Isaac Gallegos R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.9%	17.8%	1.8%	.267	3.09	19.9%	10.5%	106	-1.31	2.89	125	87
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	87
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	86
Isaac Stebens R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	24.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.328	4.14	21.1%	5.6%	50	+0.01	4.13	102	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	86
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	86
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	86
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	86
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	23.0%	14.2%	1.12	5.00
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82